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New York Times
a day ago
- Sport
- New York Times
FIFA Club World Cup betting: The race to turn £10 into £100 before July 13
For more stories like this, click here to follow The Athletic's sports betting section and have them added to your feed. In theory, a Club World Cup featuring 32 teams from across the globe is great. But in practice? We're about to find out if it's as impractical and downright nasty as many have predicted. Advertisement If it does turn into an exhausted exhibition of zombified footballers going through the motions, we at least need a contingency plan to make it fun — and that's what sports betting is for! To spice up events such as this. Welcome to a brand-new series here on The Athletic called 'The Race to 100,' where our writers Sam Tighe and Brett Koremenos compete against each other to turn £10 into £100 as quickly as possible. Each writer will start with a £10 kitty, with the opportunity to reload after each round of fixtures. They can bet in £2 increments (or units, in betting parlance) on Club World Cup fixtures. They're free to place it all on one outcome or spread it across multiple bets, but no accumulators are allowed. The goal? Get to £100 before your opponent — or, in the likely event both fail, come out ahead of the other to secure bragging rights. All clear? Alright, let's get on with the picks … Stake: Two units | Potential payout: £8.40 Even though Sam is knowledgeable about clubs like Wydad AC and the Urawa Red Diamonds, I'm sticking to betting on games that feature at least one club I'm familiar with. With PSG and Atleti, I get the bonus of wagering on two sides that played each other last season. In that group-stage Champions League game in November, PSG secured a 2-1 victory with an expected goal (xG) total between the clubs sitting at 2.8. Despite Atleti conceding most of those chances, they were the best defensive team in Spain last year. Given PSG will likely still be recovering from their Champions League final hangover, I can't see them putting the pedal to the metal this Sunday as they did in that November showdown. So, please give me the under in what may be an uninspired affair. Stake: Three units | Potential payout: £12.60 As I mentioned in our tournament preview, I'm bullish on Los Blancos. On the other hand, despite Al-Hilal finishing second in the Saudi Pro League, they looked defensively mediocre, conceding the seventh-most goals in the league. That seems to make sense for a side that had Aleksandar Mitrović — a striker who isn't known for his generosity — leading the line. Advertisement Could Xabi Alonso's men live up to their moniker as the betting favourites to win the tournament? They have attempted the fifth-most shots per 90 minutes in Europe's top five leagues this past season, have added a generational passer in Trent Alexander-Arnold, and still have Kylian Mbappé. I'll take even money that Mitrović and Co. aren't exactly going to be building a brick wall in front of Al-Hilal's goal. Stake: Three units | Potential payout: £7.50 I don't know what Brett's talking about; I've never seen Wydad AC play. However, I suppose he's right in that I'm immediately going to dive into the weird and wonderful world of upsets. There's going to be an upset in the first round, and I have quickly become obsessed with finding it. Could a tired, sad and somewhat veteran Inter side fall unexpectedly? Monterrey hasn't exactly fired on all cylinders this year. Still, there's a lot of wily, seasoned talent in that squad, including Sergio Ramos, Óliver Torres and Lucas Ocampos, who know a thing or two about the big stage. Taking Monterrey to win at 9/2 is so enticing, but I'm not that bold. Backing Monterrey to win or draw shortens the odds but is inherently safer. Stake: Two units | Potential payout: £5.60 There are seven fresh faces in Chelsea's Club World Cup squad. It's clear they're taking it seriously but also evident that they're using the tournament to take a good look at youngsters like Dário Essugo and Andrey Santos. Could unfamiliarity create some defensive hiccups? Enzo Maresca's playing style certainly takes some getting used to. If there are turnovers or mistakes in midfield, LAFC's rapid counter-attacking threat, led by the excellent Dénis Bouanga, could take advantage. It makes me think the MLS team is good for a goal here, even if they do end up falling to a superior side. Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains complete editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
New York Times
14-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Premier League accumulator picks: which bets should you add to your treble this weekend?
The Premier League returns this weekend and with it, the promise of entertainment, controversy, and a whole host of fascinating betting permutations for casual punters and veteran wagerers alike. So, we've tasked Sam Tighe to offer his insight on the latest markets with a specific focus on three-fold accumulators. Advertisement Without further ado… Every good treble starts with a banker, and ours is Liverpool to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers this weekend. Wednesday night's events at Goodison Park – where Everton scored a stunning 97th-minute equaliser against the Reds in the Merseyside derby – would've sent a jolt running through the spines of Arne Slot's men. They might be a comfortable seven points clear at the top of the Premier League table right now, but that lead could evaporate if a habit of drawing games creeps in. That puts the visitors squarely in the crosshairs, as the watching world will expect a commanding performance from a Liverpool side looking to purge their midweek miseries from the collective mind. Just about anyone would struggle to contain Mohamed Salah and his strike-partners while in a determined mood. Wolves, who have conceded the third-most goals (52) in the league this season, might be in for a long afternoon in front of the Kop. Naturally, the Merseysiders are heavy favourites to win outright (1/7), so building an extra element into the bet is necessary to make the odds a little more friendly. We've added over 1.5 goals, as we expect the hosts to score at least twice in this game. Click here for more sports betting content from The Athletic straight into your feed Our second selection is another reasonably safe one based on where these two teams sit in the standings and their respective home and away forms. Aston Villa's season has felt a little up and down – 10 wins, seven draws, and seven defeats suggest inconsistency in their performances. But their strong home form has at least been constant. They've lost just one league game at Villa Park this term, back in August to Arsenal, and have won four of their last six on home soil. Advertisement That spells trouble for the visiting Ipswich Town, who are currently languishing in 18th place and have lost their last four league games on the bounce. With The Villans looking re-energised in attack thanks to the January transfer additions of Marcus Rashford, Marco Asensio and Donyell Malen, it's easy to forecast more away-day pain for The Tractor Boys this weekend. That said, the hosts very rarely keep clean sheets – goalkeeper Emi Martínez boasts a paltry three from 24 games – which allows us to add another element to the bet and improve the odds: Villa to win, but not to keep a clean sheet in the process, priced up at 15/8. The third leg of our accumulator carries the most risk, but the statistics suggest it could be a plausible pick, especially where Forest are concerned. Nuno Espírito Santos' team have fine-tuned the knack of taking the lead and defending it. The Tricky Trees have scored the first goal in 19 league games this season, three more than Arsenal and four more than Liverpool. From there, they've managed the game and defended their lead expertly, regularly switching formation to a back five late in games to deny opposing attackers a chance to level the score. Meanwhile, Fulham have frequently struggled to outperform defensive teams at home. Results like the 2-2 draw versus Ipswich, the 0-0 draw with Southampton, and the 4-1 loss to Wolves suggest that when Marco Silva's men are asked to unlock opposing defences, they come up short. Combining these two stylistic tendencies for a bet at 9/2 feels like a winner and boosts the odds of our treble to 19.33/1! (Photo of Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez: Getty Images/Paul Ellis)
New York Times
12-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Champions League knockout round betting review: who are the bookmakers' second-leg favourites?
It's been quite a night. From Celtic Park to the Stade Louis II, there's been no shortage of drama, tantalising penalty calls, Dutch wizardry, and even the odd red card (Monaco fans, look away). So, just as we did last night, our sports betting team unravelled the chaos and offered their wagering insights ahead of the second legs… Sam Tighe: Expect the expected. Brest haven't beaten PSG since 1985 and recently lost 5-2 to them – was there anything to suggest this one would go any differently? Those who backed the visitors to win (at 3/10) and backed plenty of goals (over 2.5 goals was priced at 29/20) were rewarded. Advertisement PSG were two clear by half-time, but it took a little time for the third, killer goal to arrive; bettors that took the over were left to sweat well into the second half and watch a goal disallowed for a marginal offside decision before they could celebrate Ousmane Dembélé's second of the night. This tie is quite clearly finished, so there's little value in betting on the second leg next week. Instead, perhaps it's time to consider whether PSG – who appear to be revving up at the right time – can take that final step and win the whole thing? They're sixth favourites, out at 12/1, which is just about long enough for a cheeky punt. Tighe: Should we have seen this coming? The market for this game was set fairly even, with a home win just about favoured at 29/20. The fact that Dortmund won so convincingly proved that prediction wrong, as they summoned the spirit of last season and turned in an epic European display. They have form for this: In the 2023-24 campaign, they beat Atlético Madrid and PSG en route to a final against Real Madrid while simultaneously sinking in the Bundesliga. At no point in those European games were they favoured to win, yet they confounded the odds all the way. Is that happening again? Clearly this group of players have a great appetite for nights under the lights. As with the PSG tie, there's very little to be interested in from a betting perspective for the second leg in Germany. They're out at 40/1 to win the whole thing if you fancy them to go one better than last year. Tighe: A loss for Man City likely spoiled a few slips (they were favoured at even money), but there were still plenty of ways this game hit home from a betting perspective: Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, and Jude Bellingham all scored and, in general, goals rained down in Manchester, covering the over 4.5 market at 12/5. Advertisement It was peculiar to watch two great teams look so incredibly vulnerable — City stuttering due to a lack of confidence, Madrid barely patching together a defensive line that functioned — but it at least made for phenomenal entertainment. The Citizens will now chase the game at the Bernabéu in the second leg, meaning Madrid will be gifted another 90-minute opportunity to counter-attack into some inviting, wide-open spaces. You won't find a person on earth who doesn't expect them to score another handful next week and they're a pretty attractive price at ⅚ to win. Click here for more sports betting content from The Athletic straight into your feed Julia Ranney: Die Roten striker Harry Kane has long been ridiculed for the amount of dust collecting in his trophy cabinet. But tonight, the 31-year-old swept away doubts over his triumphs by foiling Celtic keeper Kasper Schmeichel with a 49th-minute goal – an attacking play the tipsters saw coming. Kane's night didn't start smoothly – he squandered a golden opportunity in the 43rd minute, missing a header at the back post. Instead, Michael Olise struck first, stunning the bookmakers with a thunderous goal just before half-time. Pre-match odds had Kane as the most likely first scorer (3/1), while Olise was considered a longer shot at 8/1. The oddsmakers' predictions about Kane as an anytime goalscorer came true six minutes later when the unmarked forward expertly volleyed past Schmeichel, further cementing his place as the Dane's biggest nemesis. For most of the match, Celtic's players were like crisp packets caught in the wind – drifting aimlessly as Bayern controlled possession. But Celtic Park roared to life in the dying minutes when Daizen Maeda struck from close range. It wasn't enough to salvage a draw, but heading to Germany with just a one-goal deficit keeps Brendan Rodgers' side in the fight – if only just. Bayern remain heavy favourites to advance – with a lead in hand, home advantage, and a ruthless frontline, the odds are theirs. Backing Kane as an anytime scorer in the second leg feels inevitable. Can he make it 20 past Schmeichel? Ranney: Monaco vs Benfica was one of the few knockout matches where the underdog came out on top – at least on paper. Les Rouge et Blanc entered as slight favourites (7/5), but Benfica (39/20) defied the odds to seize the advantage heading into leg two. The first half was a total snooze – the second half? Utter chaos. Three minutes after the break, Vangelis Pavlidis chipped Radosław Majecki following a brilliant Benfica build-up. Four minutes later, Al-Musrati saw red after receiving a second yellow – his Monaco debut ending in disaster. Advertisement Down by a goal and a man, the host's night went from bad to worse – anyone backing the visitors to win by one (4/1) over Monaco's 10/3 came away with a hefty payout. Looking ahead, the bookmakers give Benfica the slight edge to advance (4/5 over Monaco's 11/10), likely factoring in home advantage. With the odds nearly even, this one's a gut call for choosing the overall winner. But if you're looking for a safer option on the goalscoring front, backing Pavlidis to get on the scoresheet is a no-brainer. With six goals in nine Champions League matches this season, the Greek sensation isn't slowing down. Brett Koremenos: Now, this was a match that would've piqued the interest of even the most casual of bettors. Despite 23 total shot attempts in Feyenoord's 1-0 victory over AC Milan, the quality chances came few and far between. Each team averaged roughly 0.5 xG per shot attempt. Considering most major leagues see an average shot go in 10 per cent of the time, this game needed an attacking upgrade. With some hindsight, taking a 1-0 exact scoreline bet was a better play than simply betting the Feyenoord money line of 3/1. Milan haven't allowed over two xG in a single match since an early December fixture against Atalanta, so any Feyenoord victories that would have resulted from two goals would have required quite a bit of luck. If you were already betting the Dutch club to win, a 1-0 result was by far the most likely to produce that result – well worth the 14/1 pre-match odds. Going forward, it's hard to tell how to handle the Italian favourites from here. A home match this weekend against Hellas Verona may offer some clues, but it's hard not to walk away from the result against Feyenoord, thinking this Millan attack needs more time to gel. The under of team and total goals might be the move when the odds for the second leg show up. A goal down after the first leg.#FeyenoordMilan #UCL #SempreMilan — AC Milan (@acmilan) February 12, 2025 Koremenos: If your bet was the Belgians to win, that questionable penalty afforded you some good fortune. Case in point, Brugge were lucky to earn a victory. Even with the added boost of that controversial foul – penalties are worth roughly 0.80 expected goals (xG) – the two teams created about the same quality of chances. Stripping it down to only non-penalty xG tilted things more in the Italians favor, but the draw was definitely the result that should have rewarded anyone who took the 12/5 pre-match odds with a nice payday. Advertisement Ademola Lookman is the highest rated player in Serie A per DAVIES, one of the best public databases measuring the on and off ball impact of every player on the pitch. The 27-year-old leads Atalanta in expected goals (xG) plus expected assists (xA), carries into the penalty area and progressive passes received. In short, he does a lot of really important attacking things. Atalanta missed that. The issue for Atalanta going forward – odds haven't been released as of publication – is that their high-flying attack seemed mostly pedestrian despite facing a club 37 spots below them in the ClubElo ratings. Thankfully for the Italian side, Lookman should be back for the return leg, making it easier to be far more bullish on bets against Brugge. (Photo of Harry Kane: Getty Images/Ian MacNico)
New York Times
10-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Champions League knockout round betting preview: Will Man City succumb to Real Madrid?
Looking for a Champions League knockout round betting preview? What a coincidence, we just wrote one. Here's Sam Tighe and Julia Ranney's take on all eight midweek fixtures… Sam Tighe We got a sneak peek at the possible betting outcomes for this all-French tie when these two sides met in the league eight days ago. Spoiler alert: it did not go well for Brest. Advertisement Éric Roy's troops lost 5-2, with Ousmane Dembélé continuing his outrageous start to 2025 by scoring his second hat-trick of the week. The Frenchman followed that up with a brace against Monaco, making him perhaps the in-form player in Europe right now. His odds of scoring or assisting in this Tuesday's clash at the Stade du Roudourou are 4/6. Will he strike again? As a team, PSG have seriously clicked into gear; they've racked up 2.8 xG or more in four of their last five Ligue 1 and Champions League games, netting 18 in total over that period. The market expects goals, and it's easy to see why. Brest are no slouches—they'll offer a strong counter-attacking threat—but the firepower of PSG should be too hot to handle. The bet: PSG to win + Over 2.5 goals @ 6/5 Tighe Dortmund's 22 goals in the league phase were bettered only by Barcelona, while striker Serhou Guirassy's nine goals were matched only by Robert Lewandowski. Would you be right to think they were an unreckonable force? Not in the slightest. BVB's slide into the bottom half of the Bundesliga table prompted a managerial switch in January, though understandably, that's had minimal effect so far. A trip to Lisbon promises to be tough, especially as Sporting have turned the corner on their rocky period at the end of the year. With that in mind, the fact the Lions are priced at evens to win at home is fairly attractive. A word of warning: while the Die Borussen are deeply flawed, they're still very capable goalscorers – it might be worth building that consideration into your bet. The bet: Sporting to win + Both Teams To Score Yes @ 3/1 Julia Ranney Juventus outclassed PSV 3-1 on Matchday 1. Will the tipsters' predictions pan out by repeating the feat in the knockouts? Historically, they've handled Dutch opposition well, but Thiago Motta's squad has looked shaky in the last few weeks. Randal Kolo Muani has revitalized the Bianconeri attack since arriving in January, but it's unclear if that momentum will continue to bubble or fizzle out. PSV won't be fazed. They stunned Liverpool in January (even if it was a heavily rotated Reds squad) and won five of their last nine matches. Meanwhile, Motta's men have only won three over the same stretch. The bookmakers are on the fence, too, but denying bettors the chance to punt on Kolo Muani seems criminal. My gut tells me to expect a cagey affair, so if you're feeling bold, consider putting your money on a draw. Advertisement The bet: Juventus to win @ 20/23, a draw @ 5/2, and Kolo Muani as anytime scorer @ 2/1 Ranney This feels like a final…just four rounds too early. Manchester City may be in dire form – nearly losing to Leyton Orient in the FA Cup on Saturday – but they still offer better market value. Real Madrid aren't looking especially put together themselves. Ultimately, it might be a toss-up between which side shows up with its A-game in Manchester on Tuesday. The tipsters are backing Pep Guardiola's men; this could be a compelling wager as Erling Haaland boasts solid odds as an anytime and first goalscorer. But if you're on the fence about the Norwegian, 2.5 could be the clever play at near-even odds. The bet: Man City to win @ 13/10, Haaland anytime goalscorer @ 11/10 and first goalscorer 4/1, and O2.5 @ 20/39 Tighe Atalanta are one of three odds-on favourites away from home in this playoff round. The others are two massive mismatches: Brest vs PSG and Celtic vs Bayern Munich. That speaks to the market's lack of faith in Club Brugge. On paper, they have done a grand job getting this far, but when you drill into the details, you realise how fortunate they are to actually be here. If you're uncomfortable taking an away win on such a stage, other avenues exist. For example, Club Brugge's defensive solidity grew as the league phase wore on, conceding just once across games vs Aston Villa, Sporting and Juventus. Perhaps Atalanta are too good for them, but there's every chance they still keep it tight. The bet: Double chance Atalanta or draw + Under 2.5 Goals @ Evens Ranney They say home is where the heart is, and that's undoubtedly true for Celtic. Celtic Park, one of Europe's most daunting venues, could be the venue to spark an upset, especially given the underdog odds about the Scots. Advertisement Bayern's defensive issues, particularly their struggle to keep clean sheets despite dominating play, might offer the Bhoys a slim shot at breaking through. Adding to the intrigue are the visitors' injury concerns – notably whether Alphonso Davies will feature, which could shake up their backline – and the tipster's predictions. Sure, Vincent Kompany's men have the pedigree and firepower to make them heavy betting favourites but don't rule out Celtic finding the back of the net. The bet: BTTS YES + Bayern win @ 29/20, or just Bayern win @ 4/11 Tighe Monaco's home, the Stade Louis II, is an unsettling backdrop for football, and it certainly feels like the hosts use it to their favour. The Rouge et Blanc's robust defence often gives them the initiative to score early on in games, especially when their opponents are still acclimating. Indeed, Les Monégasques have netted first in their four home Champions League games this season. Interestingly, the game they didn't win was against this week's opponent, Benfica—but it warrants a mention that a 58th-minute red card paved the path for a late turnaround for the visitors. Perhaps that result is colouring the odds; 11/10 for Monaco to win at home feels generous. You can lengthen those odds even further if you think the hosts will race out into a lead again. – Tighe The bet: Monaco HT/FT @ 11/4, or Monaco to win at 11/10 Ranney Feyenoord made waves in the group stage, topping Bayern and producing a miraculous come-from-behind draw against Man City. But since then, Brian Priske's side has run out of gas – and the bookies are taking notice. While most tipsters are backing AC Milan, I'm intrigued by the emotional angle. How will Santiago Giménez's move from Feyenoord to AC Milan affect the undercurrent of this clash? AC Milan are far from flawless, too. Historically vulnerable against Dutch teams and inconsistent in their intensity, even with Kyle Walker bolstering their backline, they don't like to do things the easy way. Adding fuel to the fire is that the Rossoneri tend to score and concede on the road. With the action taking place in Rotterdam, it could turn into a gritty, low-scoring affair. The bet: AC Milan to win @ 5/4, and U2.5 @ 11/10 For more stories like this click here to follow The Athletic's sports betting vertical and have them added to your feed. (Photo of Jude Bellingham: Naomi Baker / Getty Images)
