Champions League knockout round betting preview: Will Man City succumb to Real Madrid?

New York Times

10-02-2025

Looking for a Champions League knockout round betting preview? What a coincidence, we just wrote one. Here's Sam Tighe and Julia Ranney's take on all eight midweek fixtures…
Sam Tighe
We got a sneak peek at the possible betting outcomes for this all-French tie when these two sides met in the league eight days ago. Spoiler alert: it did not go well for Brest.
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Éric Roy's troops lost 5-2, with Ousmane Dembélé continuing his outrageous start to 2025 by scoring his second hat-trick of the week. The Frenchman followed that up with a brace against Monaco, making him perhaps the in-form player in Europe right now. His odds of scoring or assisting in this Tuesday's clash at the Stade du Roudourou are 4/6. Will he strike again?
As a team, PSG have seriously clicked into gear; they've racked up 2.8 xG or more in four of their last five Ligue 1 and Champions League games, netting 18 in total over that period. The market expects goals, and it's easy to see why.
Brest are no slouches—they'll offer a strong counter-attacking threat—but the firepower of PSG should be too hot to handle.
The bet: PSG to win + Over 2.5 goals @ 6/5
Tighe
Dortmund's 22 goals in the league phase were bettered only by Barcelona, while striker Serhou Guirassy's nine goals were matched only by Robert Lewandowski. Would you be right to think they were an unreckonable force? Not in the slightest.
BVB's slide into the bottom half of the Bundesliga table prompted a managerial switch in January, though understandably, that's had minimal effect so far. A trip to Lisbon promises to be tough, especially as Sporting have turned the corner on their rocky period at the end of the year. With that in mind, the fact the Lions are priced at evens to win at home is fairly attractive.
A word of warning: while the Die Borussen are deeply flawed, they're still very capable goalscorers – it might be worth building that consideration into your bet.
The bet: Sporting to win + Both Teams To Score Yes @ 3/1
Julia Ranney
Juventus outclassed PSV 3-1 on Matchday 1. Will the tipsters' predictions pan out by repeating the feat in the knockouts?
Historically, they've handled Dutch opposition well, but Thiago Motta's squad has looked shaky in the last few weeks. Randal Kolo Muani has revitalized the Bianconeri attack since arriving in January, but it's unclear if that momentum will continue to bubble or fizzle out.
PSV won't be fazed. They stunned Liverpool in January (even if it was a heavily rotated Reds squad) and won five of their last nine matches. Meanwhile, Motta's men have only won three over the same stretch.
The bookmakers are on the fence, too, but denying bettors the chance to punt on Kolo Muani seems criminal. My gut tells me to expect a cagey affair, so if you're feeling bold, consider putting your money on a draw.
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The bet: Juventus to win @ 20/23, a draw @ 5/2, and Kolo Muani as anytime scorer @ 2/1
Ranney
This feels like a final…just four rounds too early.
Manchester City may be in dire form – nearly losing to Leyton Orient in the FA Cup on Saturday – but they still offer better market value. Real Madrid aren't looking especially put together themselves.
Ultimately, it might be a toss-up between which side shows up with its A-game in Manchester on Tuesday. The tipsters are backing Pep Guardiola's men; this could be a compelling wager as Erling Haaland boasts solid odds as an anytime and first goalscorer.
But if you're on the fence about the Norwegian, 2.5 could be the clever play at near-even odds.
The bet: Man City to win @ 13/10, Haaland anytime goalscorer @ 11/10 and first goalscorer 4/1, and O2.5 @ 20/39
Tighe
Atalanta are one of three odds-on favourites away from home in this playoff round. The others are two massive mismatches: Brest vs PSG and Celtic vs Bayern Munich.
That speaks to the market's lack of faith in Club Brugge. On paper, they have done a grand job getting this far, but when you drill into the details, you realise how fortunate they are to actually be here.
If you're uncomfortable taking an away win on such a stage, other avenues exist. For example, Club Brugge's defensive solidity grew as the league phase wore on, conceding just once across games vs Aston Villa, Sporting and Juventus. Perhaps Atalanta are too good for them, but there's every chance they still keep it tight.
The bet: Double chance Atalanta or draw + Under 2.5 Goals @ Evens
Ranney
They say home is where the heart is, and that's undoubtedly true for Celtic. Celtic Park, one of Europe's most daunting venues, could be the venue to spark an upset, especially given the underdog odds about the Scots.
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Bayern's defensive issues, particularly their struggle to keep clean sheets despite dominating play, might offer the Bhoys a slim shot at breaking through.
Adding to the intrigue are the visitors' injury concerns – notably whether Alphonso Davies will feature, which could shake up their backline – and the tipster's predictions.
Sure, Vincent Kompany's men have the pedigree and firepower to make them heavy betting favourites but don't rule out Celtic finding the back of the net.
The bet: BTTS YES + Bayern win @ 29/20, or just Bayern win @ 4/11
Tighe
Monaco's home, the Stade Louis II, is an unsettling backdrop for football, and it certainly feels like the hosts use it to their favour.
The Rouge et Blanc's robust defence often gives them the initiative to score early on in games, especially when their opponents are still acclimating.
Indeed, Les Monégasques have netted first in their four home Champions League games this season. Interestingly, the game they didn't win was against this week's opponent, Benfica—but it warrants a mention that a 58th-minute red card paved the path for a late turnaround for the visitors.
Perhaps that result is colouring the odds; 11/10 for Monaco to win at home feels generous. You can lengthen those odds even further if you think the hosts will race out into a lead again. – Tighe
The bet: Monaco HT/FT @ 11/4, or Monaco to win at 11/10
Ranney
Feyenoord made waves in the group stage, topping Bayern and producing a miraculous come-from-behind draw against Man City. But since then, Brian Priske's side has run out of gas – and the bookies are taking notice.
While most tipsters are backing AC Milan, I'm intrigued by the emotional angle. How will Santiago Giménez's move from Feyenoord to AC Milan affect the undercurrent of this clash?
AC Milan are far from flawless, too. Historically vulnerable against Dutch teams and inconsistent in their intensity, even with Kyle Walker bolstering their backline, they don't like to do things the easy way. Adding fuel to the fire is that the Rossoneri tend to score and concede on the road. With the action taking place in Rotterdam, it could turn into a gritty, low-scoring affair.
The bet: AC Milan to win @ 5/4, and U2.5 @ 11/10
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(Photo of Jude Bellingham: Naomi Baker / Getty Images)