Market expert sees 50% chance of recession in second half of 2025
Mike Mussio, president of FBB Capital Partners sees a 50% chance the U.S. economy falls into a recession in the second half of the year because of tariffs.
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Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
India's equity benchmarks poised for flat open
June 12 (Reuters) - India's benchmark indexes are poised for a muted open on Thursday as investors weigh the U.S.-China trade deal, which lacks details and leaves the door open for potential tariff flare-ups. The Gift Nifty futures were trading at 25,210.5 as of 7:44 a.m. IST, indicating that the Nifty 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab will open near its Wednesday's close of 25,141.4. The Nifty rose for the last six consecutive sessions, trading at eight-month highs, buoyed by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy support and signs of progress in global trade negotiations. However, sentiment in Asian markets was subdued on the day, mirroring Wall Street's overnight losses amid fresh geopolitical tensions and ambiguity in the U.S.-China deal. U.S. President Donald Trump said a framework on tariff rates had been reached to revive the fragile trade truce with China. While this lifted investor hopes, the lack of specifics kept markets on edge. Trump also announced a partial evacuation of U.S. personnel from the Middle East, calling the region "a dangerous place," and reiterated that the U.S. would not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors extended their buying streak to the 17th session on Wednesday, while foreign portfolio investors ended their three-day purchase run. Investors now await the consumer inflation data for May, due post-market. A Reuters poll projects inflation to have eased to a six-year low of 3% on a favorable base and softening food prices, reinforcing the RBI's recent policy easing. ** Zydus Lifesciences ( opens new tab receives an establishment inspection report from the U.S. drug regulator for its Ankleshwar-based API manufacturing facility, indicating the end of the inspection ** Sterlite Technologies ( opens new tab enters agreement with BSNL for a network project valued at 26.31 billion rupees ($307.9 million) ** Tanla Platforms ( opens new tab announces it will consider buyback of equity shares on June 16 ($1 = 85.4420 Indian rupees)
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Gold rises on weaker dollar, rising Middle East tensions
June 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Thursday, bolstered by rising tensions in the Middle East and a weaker dollar, while softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,372.46 an ounce, as of 0202 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 1.5% to $3,393. The U.S. dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab fell to a near two-month low, making greenback-priced bullion more attractive to overseas buyers. The weakness in the dollar index serves as a strong catalyst, said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA, adding that gold faced resistance at $3,346, and the bullish breakout triggered technical buying. Rising geopolitical risks aided safe-haven assets, with President Donald Trump announcing on Wednesday that U.S. personnel were being moved out of the Middle East due to heightened security risks amid rising tensions with Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data showed consumer prices increased less than expected in May, driven by cheaper gasoline, though inflation could accelerate due to import tariffs. The data prompted renewed calls from Trump for significant rate cuts by the Fed. "We could potentially see the Fed moving more quickly than anticipated, given the CPI data, which is not particularly alarming at this juncture," Wong said. Traders now anticipate a 50-basis-point rate cut by year-end and await U.S. producer price index data, due at 1230 GMT, for further clues ahead of the Fed's June 17-18 meeting. USDIRPR Meanwhile, Trump said on Wednesday that Washington and Beijing had agreed on a framework to restore a fragile truce in the U.S.-China trade war, potentially avoiding higher tariffs. Trump added he could extend a July 8 deadline for trade talks with other nations before higher U.S. tariffs take effect but did not foresee such a need. Elsewhere, spot silver was up 0.3% at $36.33 per ounce, platinum rose 0.6% to $1,265.32, still hovering near more than 4-year high, while palladium was down 1% at $1,068.97.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Stocks slip, dollar droops as trade, geopolitical tensions weigh
SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - Global stocks and the dollar slipped on Thursday as investors sized up a benign U.S. inflation report and the fragile trade truce between Washington and Beijing, while rising tensions in the Middle East and lingering tariff anxiety dented risk sentiment. Attention in financial markets this week has been on the U.S.-China trade talks which culminated in a framework agreement that would remove Chinese export restrictions on rare earth minerals and allow Chinese students access to U.S. universities. "We made a great deal with China. We're very happy with it," said U.S. President Donald Trump. Markets though were guarded in their response, awaiting fuller, concrete details of the agreement and remained wary of another flare up. Trump also said the U.S. would send out letters in one to two weeks outlining the terms of trade deals to dozens of other countries, which they could embrace or reject, adding yet another dose of uncertainty in the markets. "The U.S. China deal really just leaves the tariffs in place after they've been cut back following the Geneva meeting, so it doesn't really change things," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital. "Ultimately the trade tension is yet to be resolved between the U.S. and China." MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab was 0.3% lower in early trading after hitting a three year-high on Wednesday. Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab slipped 0.7%, while U.S. and European stock futures fell. China's blue-chip stock index (.CSI300), opens new tab fell 0.37%, moving off the near three-week top it touched in the previous session. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI), opens new tab was down 0.74%, also inching away from Wednesday's three-month high. Trump's erratic tariff policies have roiled global markets this year, prompting hordes of investors to exit U.S. assets, especially the dollar, as they worried about rising prices and slowing economic growth. The euro , one of the beneficiaries of the dollar's decline, rose to a seven-week high and was last at $1.1512. The Japanese yen was 0.4% firmer at 144.03 per dollar. That pushed the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six other key rivals, to its lowest level since April 22. The index is down 9% this year. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in May as cheaper gasoline partially offset higher rents, but inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months on the back of the Trump administration's import tariffs. The soft inflation report led Trump to renew his call for the Federal Reserve to push through a major rate cut. The president has been pressing for rate cuts for some time even as Fed officials have shrugged off his comments. Traders are pricing in a 70% chance of a quarter-point reduction in the Fed policy rate by September. Policymakers are widely expected to keep rates unchanged next week. 0#USDIRPR AMP's Oliver said the higher prices will flow through either in the form of higher inflation or lower profit margins. "I suspect it's probably going to be a combination of the two. Therefore it makes sense for the Fed to wait and see what happens rather than rushing into a rate cut." In commodities, oil prices were pinned at two-month highs, close to $70 a barrel, on worries of supply disruptions in the Middle East after Iran said it will strike U.S. bases in the region if nuclear talks fail and conflict arises with Washington. Gold prices also got a boost from safe-haven flows, with spot gold up 0.5% at $3,370.29.
