Latest news with #recession
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Worried About A Recession? These 10 States Have The Strongest, Most Recession-Proof Economies
As we reach the midpoint of the year, recession fears are slowly abating. In May, lowered the probability of a recession occurring in 2025 from 60% to 40%. However, it still warned that a period of subpar growth could lie ahead, especially if tariffs remain high. While the news has calmed some of the fear surrounding the economy, it hasn't eliminated all of it. A survey conducted by Indeed and Harris Poll in June found that 46% of Americans are concerned about layoffs within the next year. If you count yourself among that number, we have some good news. CNBC has identified the 10 states with economies that are least likely to be affected by a recession. Don't Miss: Deloitte's fastest-growing software company partners with Amazon, Walmart & Target – Many are rushing to grab $100k+ in investable assets? – no cost, no obligation. To score each state's economy, the outlet considered factors like state gross domestic product growth, job growth, state fiscal health, housing market health, among others. Additionally, CNBC looked at how dependent each state is on the federal government for jobs and funding, and how greatly it could be impacted by a potential trade war. These ten states, it says, "have what it takes to navigate a recession." At No. 10 is South Carolina. The state is fairly vulnerable to increased tariffs, thanks to the fact that international goods trade made up around one-third of its economy in 2024, but it also has one of the fastest-growing economies in the union, as well as significant job growth. Georgia's diverse economy puts it at No. 9, and Utah, which led the nation in gross domestic product growth in 2024, comes in at number eight. Trending: Named a TIME Best Invention and Backed by 5,000+ Users, Kara's Air-to-Water Pod Cuts Plastic and Costs — Idaho, which is fairly insulated from the trade war but heavily dependent on the federal government for jobs and funding, is number seven on CNBC's list. Washington state, New York and Delaware take up the sixth, fifth and fourth spots, respectively. At No. 3 is North Carolina, which is also CNBC's top state for business overall in 2025. Despite some setbacks from Hurricane Helene, the state is affordable, sheltered from federal job and budget cuts, and home to three major companies— Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK), and Nucor (NYSE:NUE)— that provide a large number of jobs. Texas has the second-most recession-proof economy in the US, CNBC reports. The sheer size of its economy helps offset concerns about its reliance on the federal government for jobs and international trade. The most stable economy in the nation, according to CNBC's estimation, is Florida. Topping the list for the third year in a row, Florida benefits from strong finances, healthy economic and job growth, and a wealth of new business formations. However, the state does rely on the federal government for 34% of its budget, which has experts cautioning against complete trust in the Sunshine State. Read Next: This AI-Powered Trading Platform Has 5,000+ Users, 27 Pending Patents, and a $43.97M Valuation — Warren Buffett once said, "If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Image: Shutterstock Up Next: Transform your trading with Benzinga Edge's one-of-a-kind market trade ideas and tools. Click now to access unique insights that can set you ahead in today's competitive market. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? APPLE (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report TESLA (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report This article Worried About A Recession? These 10 States Have The Strongest, Most Recession-Proof Economies originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Germany updates: Companies pledge €631 billion investment
An alliance of top German companies pledged to invest at least €631 billion ($733 billion) in Germany over the next three years. Chancellor Friedrich Merz met with executives from top German firms on Monday, hoping to rally fresh investment after two years of recession. While the government has approved billions in tax relief and a €500-billion ($580 billion) fund for infrastructure and climate, Berlin says public money alone won't be enough. Below is a roundup of what Germany is talking about on Monday, July 21: Far-right AfD want new interview following protest disruption Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has called for a new television interview to be held, after protesters on Sunday drowned leader Alice Weidel's "summer interview" in Berlin. Each year, broadcaster ARD holds annual televised question and answer sessions with the country's main political parties. However, as Weidel was preparing to begin the interview on a terrace in Berlin's government quarter, demonstrators arrived nearby. They broke into loud singing, dancing, and chanting and made it difficult for Weidel to hear the questions she was being asked. "In such a situation, ARD should have moved to a studio to ensure a fair, uninterrupted interview," Markus Frohnmaier, the AfD's deputy parliamentary group leader, told news portal Politico. "I expect the conversation to be repeated under fair conditions," Weidel said. Meanwhile, the general secretary of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) who lead Germany's coalition government, said it was better for democracy to hear her views. "If you want to strengthen the AfD, go ahead and disrupt these interviews," Carsten Linnemann told broadcasters RTL/ntv. German corporate alliance pledges to invest €631 billion over 3 years An alliance of German companies, numbering in the dozens, pledged to invest at least €631 billion ($733 billion) in the German economy over the next three years. "The investments by the initiative are a very powerful signal that we are now experiencing a shift in sentiment and consolidating it," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said. "The message ... is very clear: Germany is back. It's worth investing in Germany again. We are not a location of the past, but a location of the present and above all the future," he added. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that large public investments could be boosted significantly by private funding. "We want to leverage this potential and thus trigger further growth effects," Merz said after meeting with representatives of the "Made for Germany" initiative at the Chancellery in Berlin. The new government has launched a program to spur on investment and establish a €500 billion fund to splash on German infrastructure over the next 12 years. It has also pledged to cut bureaucratic red tape and speed up digitization. The initiative is being led by executives from Germany's blue-chip companies, including lender Deutsche Bank and industrial group Siemens. WATCH: Protesters derail AfD leader Weidel's interview A summer interview with Alice Weidel, the leader of the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), was severely disrupted by protesters on Sunday. Members of her party have called for a repeat. Watch what happened here: German metal and electrical industries continue shedding jobs There has been a continued decline in the number of people employed in Germany's metal and electrical industry, according to the employers' association Gesamtmetall. The association said that since the beginning of 2025, there had been around 60,000 job losses. Basing its findings on a survey of companies, the association said that the number of employees in May was 2.5% lower than compared to the same period the year before. While Germany's new government has taken some measures to relieve the situation, Gesamtmetall's managing director Oliver Zander higlighted a reduction in the electricity tax and the immediate investment program as outstanding issues. "The speed at which the decline in employment in the metal and electrical industry continues shows, however, that the federal government has no time for breathers," Zander said. How Germany manages extreme heat and climate change The next heat wave has been forecast in Germany. How is a country known for its lack of air conditioning preparing? Read the full story about Germany's preparations for heat waves. How far-right social media impacted Germany's highest court Researchers say a far-right social media campaign — that painted a respected law professor as extremist — caused the suspension of the election of judges to Germany's highest court. Read the full story on the controversial failure to elect a judge to Germany's top court. Why is Deutsche Bahn facing even more delays and cancellations? Once famed for never being late, German trains almost never run on time anymore. Deutsche Bahn has launched a refurbishment program that is likely to last at least a decade, and the costs and criticism are increasing. Read the full story on increasing delays on Germany's rail network. German bond yields ease ahead of key Eurozone data Germany's bond market calmed slightly on Monday after weeks of rising long-term interest rates. Investors are now waiting for new economic data from the Eurozone and a key decision from the European Central Bank (ECB). A bond yield is the return investors get for lending money to the government by buying its bonds. When bond prices go up, yields go down — so falling yields often reflect expectations of slower growth or lower interest rates. Economists believe the ECB will keep interest rates steady for now, but might cut them again as early as September. Some analysts think this week's Eurozone business activity data could show little change, partly due to global trade worries and a strong euro. That could make German government bonds more attractive, pushing their prices up and yields down. Germany, UK and Ukraine lead military aid meeting Senior representatives from around 50 countries are reconvening for another meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. The virtual session is set to begin with opening statements from German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, UK Defense Secretary John Healey, and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group was first launched on April 26, 2022, at the US air base in Ramstein, Germany — leading to the term "Ramstein format." US President Donald Trump's turnaround on military aid for Ukaine is likely to be the main topic of discussion, as NATO allies work to facilitate the weapons delivery. Abuse survivors urge Vatican to act after prosecutors drop charges against cardinal Survivors of abuse within the Catholic Church are urging the Vatican to take action against Cologne Cardinal Rainer Maria Woelki, following years of controversy and a newly closed investigation. The plaintiffs accuse Woelki of shielding perpetrators and retraumatizing victims through his handling of abuse cases in the archdiocese. The complaint, submitted by all 12 members of the survivors' advisory board at the German Bishops' Conference, was drafted by physician and board member Katharina Siepmann. "The affected often experience the cardinal's behavior as offensive," said Siepmann, who suffered three years of severe abuse as a child and has served on the board since early this year. The body was established in 2022 to represent victims and advise the Church. The group's formal complaint against Woelki refers to alleged breaches of church law, not state law. "We ultimately hope that officials in Rome — and the pope himself — will view the cardinal's behavior as unacceptable and intervene," Siepmann told German broadcaster WDR. In May, Cologne prosecutors announced that Woelki would not face perjury charges in connection with his sworn statements about when he learned of abuse allegations in his archdiocese. The archbishop had been under investigation for more than two years. Woelki, who remains a cardinal and Archbishop of Cologne, took part in the conclave that chose Pope Leo XIV. Car crashes into trampoline, lodges in barn roof The small town of Bohmte near the city of Osnabrück in the northwestern state of Lower Saxony was the scene of a spectacular accident that left two people seriously injured, including a seven-year-old boy. For as yet unknown reasons, local police reported, a car appears to have come off the road at high speed before colliding with a parked vehicle and crashing through a hedge. It then landed on a trampoline, hitting and injuring the child who was playing on it, and bounced into the attic of a barn. Read the full story about the car that crashed into a trampoline in northern Germany. Merz to meet German business leaders on investment push German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to meet top executives from major German firms on Monday in a bid to restore investor confidence and revive the struggling economy. Representatives from around 30 companies — including Siemens and Deutsche Bank — are expected to attend the talks in Berlin, according to sources cited by DPA. More than a dozen firms listed on the DAX, Germany's main stock index, are among those invited. The meeting will focus on the "Made for Germany" initiative, launched by Siemens and Deutsche Bank, which aims to strengthen the country's investment climate. Participating firms are expected to outline upcoming projects and signal readiness to commit fresh capital. After two years of recession and amid a bleak outlook for 2025, Merz is urging companies to ramp up domestic investment. His government, which took office in May, has approved multi-billion-euro tax relief packages to stimulate growth. A government spokesperson last week pointed to the recently passed €500 billion (over $580 billion) infrastructure and climate fund, saying public investment will lead the way — but private sector participation is essential. Once Europe's growth engine, the German economy has been hit hard by inflation, energy price shocks, and mounting global competition in the wake of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Welcome to our coverage Guten morgen from the DW newsroom, overlooking the Rhine River in Bonn — the former capital of West Germany. You join us as Chancellor Friedrich Merz gets ready to woo some of Germany's biggest business bosses to help get the sluggish economy back on its feet. Top names like Siemens and Deutsche Bank are expected talks in Berlin, along with more than a dozen other DAX-listed giants. About 30 firms are set to join what's being billed as a major push to rebuild investor confidence in the country's economic future. Merz is under pressure after two back-to-back years of recession and little sign that 2025 will turn things around. Follow along for the latest on what Germany is talking about on Monday, July 21.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Business confidence subdued amid tariffs but 'worst-case' less likely: BoC survey
A pair of reports from the Bank of Canada say tariff-related uncertainty continued to put a damper on business and consumer sentiment in the second quarter, but the worst-case trade scenarios previously anticipated seem less likely. The central bank's business outlook survey said 28 per cent of firms are now planning for a recession in Canada, down from 32 per cent last quarter but still up from 15 per cent over the previous two quarters. Sales outlooks remain pessimistic overall due to widespread concerns about the effects of a slowing economy, but the report says recent monthly surveys suggest some improvement in firms' outlooks, especially among exporters because few have been directly affected by current tariffs. Meanwhile, the Canadian survey of consumer expectations says spending intentions have weakened further because of persistent tariff threats. Consumers also continue to see the labour market as soft amid "elevated" fears of job loss. The reports come ahead of the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision and monetary policy report set for July 30. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 21, 2025. Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
BofA sees U.S. avoiding a recession, the Fed not cutting rates this year
-- Bank of America expects the U.S. economy to sidestep a recession in 2025 and sees no Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, even as political and market noise intensifies. In a note on Monday, BofA analysts wrote, 'These developments go in line with our view that the US economy will avoid a recession and the Fed will not cut this year.' Despite market hopes for a dovish shift, BofA says strong consumer spending and sticky goods inflation suggest continued economic resilience. BofA highlighted that recent inflation and retail data defied expectations. 'Goods inflation is picking up and consumer spending remains robust,' the analysts said, adding that the June retail sales control group rose 0.5% month-over-month, while food services grew 0.6%. The bank also warned against rate cuts driven by political motives. 'Cutting rates to help finance the government deficit is we think probably one of the worst reasons to cut rates,' it said, referring to President Trump's criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 'This unnecessary politically driven noise raises the bar for cuts,' BofA added. According to the bank, premature easing could 'backfire and end up bear steepening the yield curve... while de-anchoring inflation expectations, weakening the dollar, and increasing credit risk.' Looking ahead, BofA expects jobless claims to rise slightly in the week ending July 19, and for housing data to remain stable. Durable goods orders, due Friday, are forecast to fall 11% month-on-month. Related articles BofA sees U.S. avoiding a recession, the Fed not cutting rates this year What if the Fed hints at a September rate cut next week? Fed should cut rates by 25 bps in July, Governor Waller says Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Harvard Business Review
2 days ago
- Business
- Harvard Business Review
New Research on How Layoffs Affect the Labor Market
For months, economists, journalists, and analysts have wondered whether a recession might hit the U.S. economy. When a recession strikes, many companies respond by immediately downsizing their workforce to preserve cash, streamline operations, and maintain flexibility in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Yet these employment cuts can have devastating consequences on workers and cause lingering damage to the labor market at large. In new research, we studied the spillover impacts that corporate job-cutting during a recession can have on employees' long-term economic well-being and the labor markets in which they reside—and what corporate leaders and policymakers can do to mitigate such effects. We found that concentrated bursts of employment cuts amplify the negative worker consequences of layoffs—and they can help explain why job loss during recessions is particularly devastating for labor markets. Our work suggests that it would be valuable for firms and policymakers to work together to retain workers in the midst of economic downturns. How Individual Job Cutting Impacts the Broader Economy Employment cuts can have devastating consequences on workers, especially when they are part of a broader economic downturn. Previous academic research has established two facts about firm layoffs. First, the start of a recession prompts many companies to sharply and suddenly destroy more jobs. Second, the average worker who is laid off during a recession experiences a staggering 19% decrease in their future lifetime earnings, compared to a less extreme 11% earnings loss associated with layoffs during normal times. Together, these two facts paint a troubling picture: companies ramp up job cuts exactly when they impose the most damage on affected employees. Nonetheless, many corporate leaders feel that they must make the difficult decision to proactively reduce their workforce at the start of a recession in order to safeguard their firms' financial well-being and long-term viability. But here's the rub: recessions induce many business leaders, across a broad array of geographies and industries, to simultaneously conclude that it is a prudent time to cut employment. With so many laid-off workers desperate to find a new job, even healthy firms may struggle to adjust their business plans to accommodate new employees. Unemployed workers, in turn, may be forced to endure a prolonged spell of joblessness that weakens their skills and attachment to the labor force. As a result, individually rational decision-making by companies can produce inefficient collective outcomes in the market. We examined the significance of these spillover effects to better understand what might be done to prevent such rapid deterioration of labor markets. To do this, we used comprehensive administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau on workers' quarterly employment status and labor earnings between 1994 and 2020. We studied the variation in the employment cuts by large national firms that operate in many different geographic markets and which tend to make company-wide layoff decisions based on factors, like credit, that are unrelated to the conditions in any one local market. The large employment share of these firms means that their workforce decisions are key drivers of local labor market conditions. We find that job destruction has substantial negative spillover effects. When a worker is laid off in a local labor market with a one percentage point higher rate of job destruction, they earn an estimated $4,200 less over the following six years than laid-off employees where there was a lower rate of job destruction. Our findings suggest that each layoff that an individual business makes during an economic downturn leads to a per-year reduction of $17,000 in total earnings across workers outside of their own business. In other words, the pile-on of layoffs severely deteriorates local labor markets, which may take years to recover. What Policymakers and Corporate Leaders Can Do Our findings suggest that the aggregate effects of job destruction impose substantial costs on workers by damaging wider labor market conditions. This may be one reason why some regions have struggled to recover from the Great Recession. For policymakers, the large spillover effect from layoffs may motivate greater interventions to directly stabilize employment during downturns. While the expansion of job-saving employment subsidies (such as short-time work) has been a historical staple of European labor market policy, the United States has only recently experimented with expanding familiar types of firm support. Research on the most prominent of these policies—the Paycheck Protection Program during the COVID-19 pandemic—has found that these subsidies helped to prevent job loss for millions of workers. However, the lack of targeting and substantial cost leave scope for better policy design in preparing for the next recession. Though we only examine private U.S. employment, our results may also inform workforce decisions of public institutions that wish to avoid congesting the labor market. The negative consequences can be seen from the recent wave of layoffs from the federal workforce, which has led to an overwhelming number of new applications and has made finding jobs in state and local governments more difficult for displaced workers. Our research also has implications for the difficult decisions employers must make when restructuring their workforce. Advance notice of workforce cuts, as mandated for mass layoffs covered by the WARN Act or performed by federal agencies, helps maintain a vibrant labor market by giving workers time to find new opportunities that fit their skills and experience. Because workers would seek to avoid looking for jobs when labor market conditions are poor, companies experiencing financial strain may want to consider alternative work arrangements before resorting to layoffs. For example, recent research suggests that many workers would be willing to accept wage cuts to avoid being laid off by their employer. These kinds of interventions—which can prevent workers from facing total joblessness—may help maintain vibrant labor markets while offsetting some of the steep financial costs faced by workers. Some Caveats There are several important caveats with the interpretations and implications of our results. First, in additional analyses, we find that employers tend to have a higher revenue-per-worker following episodes of job destruction due to the reallocation of labor to growing firms. While our paper suggests these potential productivity gains do not fully offset the estimated costs faced by workers, more research could help provide a more complete understanding of the effects of job destruction on the labor market and how its deterioration might impact firms' revenues. . . . Many firms turn to layoffs to stabilize their businesses during an economic downturn. Yet the collective impacts of these decisions across businesses can cause lasting damage to workers and labor markets. Our research suggests firms and policymakers can help support healthy labor markets when they work together to stabilize and maintain jobs in times of crisis.
