
Indian Stocks: Indices declines 0.7% amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions
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Mumbai: India's equity indices ended 0.7% lower on Friday after falling as much as 1.6% earlier in the day after Israel's strikes on Iran raised fears of supply disruption of crude oil and a wider conflict in the Middle East. Brent Crude Futures jumped over 7% to $74.6 per barrel on Friday.Analysts said the underlying bullish undertone helped the market cut a portion of its losses in Friday's trading session. "Despite the bearish news flows, the decline in the market was limited as benchmark Nifty held the key support level of 24,460 and recovered the losses made in the early trading session," said Akshay Chinchalkar, head of research, Axis Securities.The NSE Nifty fell 0.7%, or 169.60 points, to finish at 24,718.60. The BSE Sensex moved 0.7%, or 573.38 points, lower at 81,118.60. Both indices declined by over 1% each in the past five trading sessions.Israel has launched unprecedented strikes on Iran, targeting its nuclear programme and military leaders. The event sent oil prices soaring on worries that an escalation could disrupt supplies from the oil-rich region. Iran is one of the world's biggest oil producers. Brent crude has surged about 14% in the past two days.At home, the Volatility Index or VIX-the market's fear gauge-gained 7.6% to 15.08 on Friday, indicating traders expect higher risks in the near term.Analysts do not expect a bigger slide unless key support levels of 24,450-24,500 are breached."Till the support levels are intact, any declines are expected to be bought into," said Ruchit Jain, vice president- head, technical research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services . "Nifty is likely to witness time-wise correction and struggle to move above 25,000 to 25,200 levels."The Nifty Mid-cap 150 and the Small-cap 250 indices declined 0.4% each. In the past week, the mid-cap index shed 1.2% while the small-cap index fell 0.44%. Out of the 4,122 shares traded on the BSE, 1,401 advanced, while 2,595 declined. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net of ₹3,831 crore on Friday. Their domestic counterparts sold shares worth ₹9,394 crore. In June, overseas investors sold shares worth ₹5,079.8 crore.
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The Print
an hour ago
- The Print
Rupee dives 59 paise against US dollar on spike in crude oil prices
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NDTV
6 hours ago
- NDTV
How Israel-Iran Conflict May Affect Oil Prices In India
Israel's surprise airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites have rattled global energy markets, sending oil prices soaring amid concerns that supplies from the critical West Asia region would be disrupted. The price of benchmark Brent crude surged by over $6 to cross a five-month high of $78 per barrel on Saturday. Higher crude prices mean higher fuel costs and an increase in the cost of freight. The potential negative ramifications for global trade resulted in a sharp fall in US equities too. Iran's airstrikes on Tel Aviv only served to heighten tensions further. Experts anticipate the rise in global tensions to lead to near-term volatility. In fact, the Volatility Index or the VIX, spiked nearly 8% in trade on Friday. While the escalation is bullish for near-term oil and gas prices, analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights say it is unlikely to sustain price pressure unless it directly disrupts oil exports. "The attack is obviously bullish near term for oil prices, but the key is whether oil exports will be affected. When Iran and Israel exchanged attacks last time, prices spiked, then fell once it was clear the situation wasn't escalating and oil supply was unaffected," Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told news agency ANI. Even though India does not directly import large volumes of oil from Iran, it does import about 80 per cent of its oil requirement. The worry for India is that the Strait of Hormuz, which is located between Iran to the north and the Arabian Peninsula to the south, remains a critical chokepoint, with nearly 20 per cent of global LNG trade and a significant portion of crude exports transiting through the narrow waterway. Any disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, say analysts, may affect oil shipments from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, who are key suppliers for India. Analysts further said any disruption on the route could hurt India's exports in terms of time as well as costs. In the past, Iran has warned of blocking the key route. "There is a risk to LNG supply if Iran retaliates by threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz," as per analysts from S&P Global Commodity Insights. While current freight rates for Red Sea transits have remained steady, analysts say heightened conflict could reverse that trend. "Price risk premiums tend to fade unless actual supply is disrupted," said S&P analysts. The longer-term impact on oil and gas markets will depend on whether the conflict escalates into a regional war or remains contained. With OPEC+ announcing another higher-than-expected production hike in July, fundamentally oil markets remain well supplied and further Iranian supply cuts can be accommodated, the Emkay Global, a financial services provider, report states. "Our Energy team maintains a positive view on India's oil market companies on the back of strong marketing margins and core GRMs (gross refining margins) also holding up to $75/bbl Brent for the remaining part of the year. Our estimates don't see downside risks," the report added. For now, markets remain on edge, with every new development carrying the potential to tip the balance.


Economic Times
7 hours ago
- Economic Times
Dalal Street Week Ahead: Technical indicators signal caution, not panic
The Nifty experienced a setback, failing to sustain a breakout from its month-long consolidation phase, closing with a weekly loss of 1.14%. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, are expected to influence global equity markets, including India. Despite these uncertainties, the Indian market demonstrates resilience, remaining within the 24500-25100 range. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of .) An attempt to break out of a month-long consolidation fizzled out as the Nifty declined and returned inside the trading zone it had created for itself. Over the past five sessions, the markets consolidated just above the upper edge of the trading zone; however, this failed to result in a breakout as the markets suffered corrective trading range stayed wider on anticipated lines; the Index oscillated in a 749-point range over the past week. The volatility rose; the India Vix climbed 3.08% to 15.08 on a weekly basis. The headline Index closed with a net weekly loss of 284.45 points (-1.14%)We have a fresh set of geopolitical tensions to deal with Israel attacking Iran. The global equity markets are likely to remain affected and India will be no exception to this. Having said this, the Indian markets are relatively stronger than their peers and are likely to stay away. Despite the negative reaction to the global uncertainties, Nifty has shown great resilience and has remained in the 24500-25100 trading zone in which it has been trading for over a month now. There are high possibilities that over the coming week, the Nifty may stay volatile and oscillate in a wide range, but it is unlikely to create any directional bias. A sustainable trend would emerge only after Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside or violates the 24500 coming week is likely to see the levels of 25100 and 25300 acting as resistance points. The supports are likely to come in at 24500 and 24380 weekly RSI stands at 57.67; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has failed to break above the rising trendline resistance. This trendline begins from 21150 and joins the subsequent higher bottoms. Besides this, it reinforces the 25100 level as a strong resistance point. For any trending upmove to emerge, it would be crucial for the Index to move past this level it is unlikely that the Nifty will violate 24500 levels. The options data shows very negligible call writing below 24500 strikes, increasing the possibility of this level staying defended over the coming days. Unless there is a situation with more gravity to be dealt with, the markets may stay largely in a defined trading sector rotation stays visible in favor of traditionally defensive pockets and low-beta stocks. We continue to recommend a cautious stance as long as the Index does not move past the 25100 level and stays above that point. Until then, a highly stock-specific approach is recommended while guarding profits at higher our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and is set to outperform the broader markets relatively. The Nifty PSU Bank and PSE Indices are also inside the leading quadrant; however, they are giving up on their relative Nifty Infrastructure Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Banknifty, Services Sector Index, Consumption, Financial Services, and Commodities Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant. While stock-specific performance may be seen, the collective relative outperformance may Nifty FMCG Index languishes inside the lagging quadrant. The Metal and the Pharma Indices are also inside the lagging quadrant, but they are improving on their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Nifty Realty, Media, Auto, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they may continue improving their relative performance against the broader Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of and and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at