March Madness picks: Odds, lines, expert predictions, watch times, schedule for NCAA tournament Midwest region

Yahoo

20-03-2025

Houston has become one of college basketball's most recognizable programs. There was some skepticism whether the Cougars could dominate the Big 12 like they dominated the American Athletic Conference, but that has been no problem.
The only thing keeping Houston from an even higher standing during March Madness is a national title. The Cougars have a shot at it this year, though they're just the fifth most-bet team to win it all at BetMGM, the lowest among the No. 1 seeds. Houston is also the fourth-most popular pick to win it at all at Yahoo's Bracket Challenge, with the other three No. 1 seeds ahead of the Cougars. But make no mistake, Houston is good enough to win it all this season.
Here are most of the matchups for the Midwest region (we'll get Illinois' first-round opponent after Texas and Xavier meet in the First Four) with all odds from BetMGM:
South region picks | East region picks | West Region picks
All times Eastern
High Point will be a popular pick among those looking to brag about the mid-major they identified as an upset special. High Point has won 14 in a row, the second-longest winning streak in college basketball. The issue is the level of competition, as High Point played zero Quad 1 games and just one Quad 2 game. The Big South also hasn't been great in the NCAA tournament, going 5-9 against the spread in the first round since 2009, according to Matt Eisenberg's Tournament Guide. Purdue is good yet again. But this is a bit funny: After last year's Zach Edey-led march to the title game, the Boilermakers won't overwhelm anyone with their size, not even High Point. They hardly ever block shots, which had to be a relief for Boilermakers opponents who were sick of seeing Edey in the paint. In that way it's as good of a matchup as High Point could have hoped for. Maybe refrain from moving High Point ahead in your bracket, but it can keep this game close.
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Houston has become a machine under Kelvin Sampson. It's tough as always, can destroy anyone on the offensive glass, and now it can shoot too. The Cougars hit 39.8% of their 3-point shots, the fourth-best mark in college basketball. It's a scary team that has lost once since the end of November. Some 16 seeds can provide some hope to cover a massive spread, but SIUE probably isn't that team.
Welcome to a 12 over 5 upset you're going to see in a lot of brackets. McNeese didn't score any huge upsets this season, but it lost by just eight points at Alabama and by three against Mississippi State. The Cowboys also dominated the Southland Conference. They went 22-1 since mid-December. McNeese also got some NCAA tournament experience last season, though it lost by 21 to Gonzaga. Clemson had a good record, but what does that really say in this year's down ACC? You might not need the points in this one. McNeese can pull an upset.
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By now most college basketball fans know about KenPom.com, which became part of the sport's lexicon for its efficiency-based rankings. Every year in the NCAA tournament some team has great predictive metrics at KenPom.com, but its resume doesn't match it, leading to a mismatched seed. This season it's Gonzaga, which is ninth in KenPom.com but a No. 8 seed. No other team seeded No. 7 or lower is in the top 20. It's not like oddsmakers don't understand how that works, which is why Gonzaga is a pretty healthy favorite in a No. 8 vs. 9 game. Georgia has some really good wins over St. John's, Florida and Kentucky, and it's not like you're getting any discount on Gonzaga. There's some danger in going against a Gonzaga team that is better than its seed, but Georgia won't be intimidated after playing an SEC schedule.
Ah, the Rick Barnes conundrum. Barnes is doing great things at Tennessee, but he has historically struggled to cover the spread in the NCAA tournament. Tennessee did cover last season with a 34-point blowout of St. Peter's, but it's still hard to ignore the history. Wofford isn't a particularly strong 15 seed. It played one game against a top-100 KenPom.com team all season and lost 86-35 to Duke. The Vols really shouldn't have any trouble in this one, regardless of Barnes' first-round history.
UCLA has to travel to Lexington, Kentucky, which means Bruins coach Mick Cronin will probably complain about it. Jokes aside, UCLA is a solid team that doesn't have a lot of weaknesses. Utah State started 16-1 but lost some steam, going 10-6 the rest of the way. Utah State is a good offensive team but not as strong on defense, so give the Bruins a slight edge.
Troy is a weird matchup. The Trojans will press a lot and play plenty of zone, which makes them a difficult team to prepare for. Troy's biggest weakness is it turns it over way too often, but Kentucky doesn't force many turnovers. Troy also has a senior guard in Tayton Conerway, who played very well in the Sun Belt tournament. Kentucky's Lamont Butler is supposed to play in this game, though his shoulder injury hasn't gone away. This Kentucky team won't overwhelm anyone with talent, though it is cohesive on offense and very well coached. If Troy can force some misses — its defense is good at that — then this can be a close game.
Illinois has the talent to make a deep run. The Illini also was so inconsistent that a first-round no-show can't be ruled out. Xavier is a good, well-coached team that had a good comeback win over Texas in the First Four, but we'll trust Illinois to rise to the occasion.