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Indian Express
16 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Is India's economy ‘dead' as Donald Trump claimed?
On July 30, United States President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on India, as well as an unspecified 'penalty' for buying military equipment and energy from Russia. A day later, Trump posted on social media that he did not care if India and Russia 'take their dead economies down together'. Asked about Trump's description of India as a 'dead' economy, Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi said: 'Yes, he (Trump) is right… Everybody knows this except the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister. I am glad President Trump has stated a fact… The whole world knows that India is a dead economy and that the BJP has killed it…' Union Minister of Commerce & Industry Piyush Goyal pushed back, saying that India had rapidly transformed from being one of the 'fragile five' to the fastest growing major economy in the world in just over a decade. 'We have risen from the 11th largest economy to one of the top five… It is also widely expected that we will become the third largest economy in a few years. Today, international institutions and economists see India as the bright spot in the global economy. India is contributing to almost 16% of the global growth,' Goyal said in a statement to Parliament. 'In the last decade, the government has taken transformative measures to promote India as the manufacturing hub of the world… India's young, skilled and talented workforce is driving innovation and competitiveness of Indian industry. Our exports have steadily increased during the last 11 years,' he said. So, is India's economy 'dead'? While Trump, who seems annoyed with India's hard bargaining in the talks for a trade deal, need not be taken literally, it stands to reason that one absolutely necessary attribute of a dead economy must be an absence of economic growth. The Table alongside contains data for gross domestic product (GDP) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a selection of countries over the past 30 years from 1995. They have been selected in the context of Trump's comments, and the recent trade pacts signed between his administration and countries such as Pakistan, the UK, and the EU (of which Germany is the biggest economy). Japan has been included because it is one of the world's biggest economies. The data throw up a picture that is obviously contrary to Trump's contention that India, or even Russia, are 'dead' economies. Column 3 shows the number of times the GDP of each country has grown over the past 30 years. The top three countries are China, India, and Russia in that order. While the US has now become four times its 1995 size, its closest trade partners like the United Kingdom have grown by less than 3 times, and Germany has failed to even double its economy. Japan's GDP in 2025 is lower than what it was in 1995, which would, by this metric, qualify it to be not just a 'dead' but perhaps a decaying economy. In contrast, India's economy is today almost 12 times its size in 1995. There is another way to look at these numbers: how did these economies grow relative to the US? Columns 4 and 5 show there are only three economies that have grown in size relative to the US: China, India, and Russia. India was less than 5% the size of the US economy in 1995, but in 2025 it is almost 14%. By contrast, all of America's friends and trading partners have shrunk in size relative to the US. Do the above numbers mean India's economy has no problems? While India is by no means a 'dead' economy — far from it — it does have several ailments. While India's overall GDP has grown, its growth rate has lost a step since 2011-12, and failed to replicate the spurt of fast growth — averaging 8%-9% — that was witnessed before the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. Since 2014, India's growth rate has hovered around 6%. India also has not achieved the pace of growth that China did during its own journey. In 2014, India's GDP was $2.1 trillion; 11 years later, at the end of the ongoing financial year, it is projected to reach $4.1 trillion, according to the IMF. By comparison, China's GDP raced from $1.9 trillion to $4.6 trillion in just four years, from 2004 to 2008. In terms of trade — which is the context of Trump's comments — India's share is just 1.8% of total global exports of goods, and just 4.5% of total global exports of services. One sign of weakness in the economy is the fact that there are many sectors that India wants to protect when it comes to international trade. India's farm economy is plagued with distress, with the bulk of the farmers living at subsistence levels. The reason why the bulk of India's population is still engaged in the rural and farm sectors is the failure to boost manufacturing. Official data show that since 2019-20, manufacturing has registered a slower growth rate (CAGR of 4.04%) than even agriculture and allied activities (4.72%). Further, despite overall GDP growth, the quality of growth and its distribution is acutely skewed, leading to widening inequalities and persistently high poverty. Twenty-four per cent of the population is below the World Bank poverty line for India. In 2011-12, when India was a poorer country and its poverty line was the same as the abject poverty line, 27% of India qualified as poor. Data on inequality also show an alarming rise. And on human development metrics such as health and education, the situation is concerning. A stark skills mismatch means that unemployment in India rises to very high levels with rising educational attainment. And female participation in the economy is among the lowest in the world — even when it is rising, the quality of work is of the poorest quality with low and stagnant wages. Udit Misra is Deputy Associate Editor. Follow him on Twitter @ieuditmisra ... Read More
Time of India
3 hours ago
- Time of India
Shah to visit Assam on Aug 29, join land protection drive & unveil new Raj Bhavan
1 2 Guwahati: Ahead of the assembly election early next year, Union home minister Amit Shah will join the state in its drive to protect its lands from encroachers here on Aug 29. Shah, who is also the cooperation minister, will address the panchayat members from NDA on the state govt's plan to form cooperatives in every panchayat. These cooperatives will use the vacant govt land on lease for cultivation and farming so that no encroachment on any vacant govt land can take place. Large swathes of forest lands in the state, illegally occupied by Bangladesh-origin Muslim people, are being cleared by the state govt. CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, while addressing a press conference here on Friday, said, "The Union home minister will first inaugurate the newly constructed Raj Bhavan on Aug 29, which I think will be the best Raj Bhavan in the country. Thereafter, he will address a convention of the newly elected panchayat members of BJP and its ally Asom Gana Parishad." He further said the state govt is planning to form cooperative societies in every panchayat. "The responsibility of the cooperative societies will be to use the vacant govt land for agriculture, farming, or dairy. We want to inspire the panchayat members to use the vacant govt land for agriculture so that no encroachment can take place," he added. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Indian NRIs Are Getting Eligible For INR 2 Lakh Monthly Pension On Retirement. Invest 18K/M Get Offer Undo He said the vacant govt land will be given to the cooperative societies on lease. "Since Shah is also the cooperation minister, he will also address the panchayat members on this," he added. In the evening, Shah will attend the birth centenary of Assam's first non-Congress CM Golap Borbora. He will then return to Delhi. Borbora was arrested in 1975 during the Emergency for opposing the then Indira Gandhi govt and he spent 18 months in Tihar jail. He became the state unit president of the Janata Party in 1977 after his release from Tihar jail and led the party to victory with 53 seats. He was unanimously elected the first non-Congress chief minister of Assam in 1978, but his govt lasted for only 18 months. He was also a Rajya Sabha member from 1968 to 1974.
Time of India
3 hours ago
- Time of India
Debt-ridden Himachal turns to lottery to make a quick buck
Kullu: Cash-strapped Himachal Pradesh is trying its luck with lottery to turn its fortunes. The cabinet has allowed lottery operations that were shut down in 1999. Burdened by a Rs 1 lakh-crore debt, it hopes to make a modest Rs 50 to Rs 100 crore annually from sale of lottery tickets. The decision to reintroduce lottery in the mountain state after over a quarter century was taken in a cabinet meeting on July 31. The recommendation came from a cabinet sub-committee set up to give suggestions to boost state revenue. It seems to be inspired by other states that run lotteries. Neighbouring Punjab earned Rs 235 crore through sale of lottery tickets during the 2024-25 fiscal, while the tiny state of Sikkim made Rs 30 crore during the same period. Kerala tops the list — the southern state earned a jaw-dropping Rs 13,582 crore last financial year. Himachal, which is finding it difficult to meet the expenses of rebuilding the damage caused by this year's landslides and flash floods, hopes to mop up some much-needed funds this way. "Many states earn through lotteries. You will be surprised to know how much Kerala earns. Himachal Pradesh govt has decided to restart the lottery system in the state after a recommendation was made by a Cabinet sub-committee," said industries minister Harshwardhan Chauhan. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like NRIs Living In Greece Are Eligible For INR 2 Lakh Monthly Pension. Invest 18K/Month Get Offer Undo "We will follow the tender process to run the lotteries in Himachal Pradesh just as other states do," added Chauhan. The decision to reintroduce lotteries in Himachal has come at a time when the state's debt stands at a back-breaking Rs 1,04,729 crore, and the per capita debt has reached Rs 1.17 lakh per head, the second highest after Arunachal Pradesh. To make the financial situation even worse, the revenue deficit grant (RDF), financial assistance from the Centre, has come down from Rs 6,258 crore in 2024 to Rs 3,257 crore in 2025, and the GST compensation has been stopped by the Union govt. Govt is expected to introduce the bill on lotteries in the monsoon session of assembly, beginning Aug 18. Himachal Pradesh had banned lotteries, both state-run and from outside the state, in 1999 under Sections 7, 8 & 9 of the Lotteries (Regulation) Act, 1998, during the tenure of chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal. The lottery decision has not gone down well with opposition BJP. Former CM and Leader of Opposition Jai Ram Thakur criticised the move, saying: "Lotteries were prohibited because they ruined families, homes were auctioned, and people were driven to suicide." Lotteries are legal in 13 states — Punjab, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa, West Bengal, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Assam. MSID:: 123044952 413 |
