Labour's poll ratings have plummeted – so is Starmer's future in question?

The Guardian

4 days ago

A lesson in comms for any prime minister: when asked whether you will serve another term, try to express some enthusiasm at the prospect.
When at the end of his first term, David Cameron breezily told a reporter he would not serve a third, he inadvertently fired the starting gun for leadership jostling between his potential successors. Keir Starmer fell into the same trap this month when he was asked whether he would fight the next election. 'You're getting way ahead of me,' he said.
This equivocal response triggered such a frenzy of speculation that the prime minister quickly gave another statement saying: 'Of course I am going to stand at the next election. I've always said this is a decade of national renewal that I intend to lead.' But the damage was done. Starmer's ambivalence fuelled suspicions that he has not entirely made up his mind on whether to seek re-election past 2029.
The deep dissatisfaction among Labour MPs with the direction and performance of the government, which has spread to even some of Starmer's most loyal supporters, has created a febrile atmosphere where his future is being called into question. More than any other issue, parliamentary discontent has crystallised over the government's £5bn of welfare cuts, particularly cuts to support for disabled people. Nearly 200 Labour MPs are said to oppose them ahead of a crunch vote expected in June.
Critics on the left of the Labour party have become increasingly vocal. Louise Haigh, the former cabinet minister, has called for a wealth tax and warned against a lurch to the right. This week John McDonnell, who now sits as an independent, urged the Labour grassroots to mount a challenge against Starmer and said the party was at risk.
In the mainstream of the parliamentary Labour party (PLP), many MPs are unhappy but they also agree on one thing – Starmer is safe in his position for as long as he wants it. 'The Labour party doesn't do regicide,' one said. Another Labour MP said 'Keir is totally safe' because although there is 'universal discontent, there is total fragmentation over the cause of discontent'. Some MPs feel the government needs to be more left-wing on the economy and more progressive in its rhetoric; others want a bigger crackdown on irregular migration; those in rural areas are bruised from the farm tax changes; yet another group feel the problem lies with the Downing Street operation.
'People returned from the locals with their own lessons about what is going wrong,' a government source said. 'Depending on whether they're losing votes to the Lib Dems, to the Greens or getting humped by Reform, they came back with somewhat different asks of what they think could solve the problem.'
While the breadth and depth of discontent is remarkable less than a year after a landslide win, there are a number of factors behind it. Starmer's popularity has plummeted at a historic rate and the fact that MPs' margins were so slim means they feel the threat personally. The frontbench appointments so far have led some to conclude they have little to no chance of promotion. 'Incumbent MPs feel super locked out. And some of the newcomers have a relatively good sense of whether they are in or out,' a Labour MP said. There is more pain to come with a difficult spending review that is expected to make deep cuts to unprotected departments such as education. 'That's not going to improve the mood,' a government source said.
In this febrile context it is no surprise that ambitious cabinet ministers will be assessing their options. The single event that has fuelled speculation over Starmer's position – and reopened an old rift – has been the leak of a memo written by Angela Rayner setting out her alternative tax-raising proposals to Rachel Reeves. Despite her denials, Rayner is widely blamed for the leak – not least because it improves her standing in the party. 'It means she can say, 'Remember that point of difficulty? I put a mark in the sand,'' one MP said. 'The PLP is aware she is making a case at least – even if she's not being successful – for some slightly more progressive measures,' another source said.
Rayner has been lending a sympathetic ear to Labour MPs over teas and lunches over the past few months. Wes Streeting, the telegenic health secretary, is also the perennial subject of leadership speculation and has a cadre of parliamentary supporters. 'It's already deeply unfashionable to say anybody other than Angela Rayner can be the next Labour leader,' one of them said. 'But Wes is the only one at the moment – admittedly helped by large amounts of cash – who can turn around and say, 'oh look, delivery.'' Some MPs are unconvinced. 'What does Wes want to be PM for? What does he want the country to look like? I don't know the answer to that question – I just know that he wants to be PM,' one said.
The next few weeks are key for Starmer's government. The spending review on 11 June will be totemic for Reeves, whose actions as chancellor have decimated her popularity in the party. The vote on the welfare cuts is now expected later in June, with government figures planning for the bill to pass all its Commons stages before the summer recess. And some around Starmer are pushing for a cabinet reshuffle to be held before MPs break for their constituencies in late July, to give ministers time to bed into their new briefs before the autumn budget and party conference.
There are already moves afoot to ensure that the party's annual gathering in Liverpool is populated with loyal delegates and that awkward motions are kept off the conference floor as far as possible. 'The reason Keir was able to change the party was exercising an exceptional grip on the candidates process. That micro grip continues to exert itself,' a Labour MP said.
'It's quite an important few weeks and there's a lot of hurdles to get over, but there is a scenario in which those go relatively well, welfare is done and actually it doesn't look too bad going into the summer,' a government source said. If things do turn around and the economic situation shows improvement MPs will start to feel more chipper. One said: 'Things are still pretty early on in parliament, and the solace people have is that living standards are trending in the right direction.'