Latest news with #welfareCuts
The Guardian
3 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Labour's poll ratings have plummeted – so is Starmer's future in question?
A lesson in comms for any prime minister: when asked whether you will serve another term, try to express some enthusiasm at the prospect. When at the end of his first term, David Cameron breezily told a reporter he would not serve a third, he inadvertently fired the starting gun for leadership jostling between his potential successors. Keir Starmer fell into the same trap this month when he was asked whether he would fight the next election. 'You're getting way ahead of me,' he said. This equivocal response triggered such a frenzy of speculation that the prime minister quickly gave another statement saying: 'Of course I am going to stand at the next election. I've always said this is a decade of national renewal that I intend to lead.' But the damage was done. Starmer's ambivalence fuelled suspicions that he has not entirely made up his mind on whether to seek re-election past 2029. The deep dissatisfaction among Labour MPs with the direction and performance of the government, which has spread to even some of Starmer's most loyal supporters, has created a febrile atmosphere where his future is being called into question. More than any other issue, parliamentary discontent has crystallised over the government's £5bn of welfare cuts, particularly cuts to support for disabled people. Nearly 200 Labour MPs are said to oppose them ahead of a crunch vote expected in June. Critics on the left of the Labour party have become increasingly vocal. Louise Haigh, the former cabinet minister, has called for a wealth tax and warned against a lurch to the right. This week John McDonnell, who now sits as an independent, urged the Labour grassroots to mount a challenge against Starmer and said the party was at risk. In the mainstream of the parliamentary Labour party (PLP), many MPs are unhappy but they also agree on one thing – Starmer is safe in his position for as long as he wants it. 'The Labour party doesn't do regicide,' one said. Another Labour MP said 'Keir is totally safe' because although there is 'universal discontent, there is total fragmentation over the cause of discontent'. Some MPs feel the government needs to be more left-wing on the economy and more progressive in its rhetoric; others want a bigger crackdown on irregular migration; those in rural areas are bruised from the farm tax changes; yet another group feel the problem lies with the Downing Street operation. 'People returned from the locals with their own lessons about what is going wrong,' a government source said. 'Depending on whether they're losing votes to the Lib Dems, to the Greens or getting humped by Reform, they came back with somewhat different asks of what they think could solve the problem.' While the breadth and depth of discontent is remarkable less than a year after a landslide win, there are a number of factors behind it. Starmer's popularity has plummeted at a historic rate and the fact that MPs' margins were so slim means they feel the threat personally. The frontbench appointments so far have led some to conclude they have little to no chance of promotion. 'Incumbent MPs feel super locked out. And some of the newcomers have a relatively good sense of whether they are in or out,' a Labour MP said. There is more pain to come with a difficult spending review that is expected to make deep cuts to unprotected departments such as education. 'That's not going to improve the mood,' a government source said. In this febrile context it is no surprise that ambitious cabinet ministers will be assessing their options. The single event that has fuelled speculation over Starmer's position – and reopened an old rift – has been the leak of a memo written by Angela Rayner setting out her alternative tax-raising proposals to Rachel Reeves. Despite her denials, Rayner is widely blamed for the leak – not least because it improves her standing in the party. 'It means she can say, 'Remember that point of difficulty? I put a mark in the sand,'' one MP said. 'The PLP is aware she is making a case at least – even if she's not being successful – for some slightly more progressive measures,' another source said. Rayner has been lending a sympathetic ear to Labour MPs over teas and lunches over the past few months. Wes Streeting, the telegenic health secretary, is also the perennial subject of leadership speculation and has a cadre of parliamentary supporters. 'It's already deeply unfashionable to say anybody other than Angela Rayner can be the next Labour leader,' one of them said. 'But Wes is the only one at the moment – admittedly helped by large amounts of cash – who can turn around and say, 'oh look, delivery.'' Some MPs are unconvinced. 'What does Wes want to be PM for? What does he want the country to look like? I don't know the answer to that question – I just know that he wants to be PM,' one said. The next few weeks are key for Starmer's government. The spending review on 11 June will be totemic for Reeves, whose actions as chancellor have decimated her popularity in the party. The vote on the welfare cuts is now expected later in June, with government figures planning for the bill to pass all its Commons stages before the summer recess. And some around Starmer are pushing for a cabinet reshuffle to be held before MPs break for their constituencies in late July, to give ministers time to bed into their new briefs before the autumn budget and party conference. There are already moves afoot to ensure that the party's annual gathering in Liverpool is populated with loyal delegates and that awkward motions are kept off the conference floor as far as possible. 'The reason Keir was able to change the party was exercising an exceptional grip on the candidates process. That micro grip continues to exert itself,' a Labour MP said. 'It's quite an important few weeks and there's a lot of hurdles to get over, but there is a scenario in which those go relatively well, welfare is done and actually it doesn't look too bad going into the summer,' a government source said. If things do turn around and the economic situation shows improvement MPs will start to feel more chipper. One said: 'Things are still pretty early on in parliament, and the solace people have is that living standards are trending in the right direction.'
Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Times
Starmer faces Scottish revolt over welfare cuts as by-election looms
Sir Keir Starmer is facing a revolt from Scottish MPs over welfare cuts amid concerns that Reform is poised to secure a breakthrough in a critical by-election next week. Senior Labour figures are braced for the party to finish third behind the SNP and Reform in the Holyrood by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse. Government whips have been warned by Scottish MPs that they will not back reforms to disability benefits and wider welfare overhauls as a result. A senior government source told The Times: 'The Hamilton loss will have some serious implications. We're about to get quite considerably humped in the by-election and it will ripple through the Scottish parliamentary Labour Party. 'It sounds like it's really rubbish on the ground and, when we lose, are the Scottish MPs really going to traipse through the lobbies to back us on welfare cuts? It's an SNP seat but it looks like Reform will at least come second, pushing us into third.' The Hamilton by-election was triggered by the death of the SNP MSP Christina McKelvie in March. Although she had a 4,582 majority over Labour, she won the seat in 2021 when SNP were high in the polls. It is a seat that Labour would be expected to win if it is to have any hope of forming a government in the Holyrood elections next year. Instead, Labour strategists fear the party's candidate, Davy Russell, could be pushed into third place behind the SNP and Reform. The Reform candidate, Ross Lambie, joined the party in March, having defected from the Conservatives. However, senior Labour sources loyal to Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, insisted that they remain locked in a two-horse race with the SNP and say claims they are certain to fall behind Reform are misguided. Insiders believe Scottish MPs will blame Starmer's decision to cut winter fuel payments for all but the most vulnerable of pensioners for the result in Hamilton and some are considering making their opposition to forthcoming cuts public. 'Something pretty radical is going to have to change off the back of this result for me to change my mind,' one said. The government is increasingly concerned that any concessions offered to welfare rebels will fall on deaf ears, as those planning to defy the whip sense 'safety in numbers'. The Times revealed on Monday that disability benefit claimants could get more time to seek new support before the £3.4 billion cuts are imposed, in an attempt to soften the blow and provide an 'off-ramp' for those who could otherwise vote against the government. Other tweaks being considered include the potential expansion of free school meals to cover more children, while there are ongoing discussions around the two-child benefit cap before a report due in the autumn from the government's child poverty taskforce. Starmer has also committed himself to partially reversing the cuts to winter fuel payments. However, senior sources told The Times that although they did not expect the number of potential rebels to increase much further, 'everyone is pretty entrenched and it's safety in numbers'. They added: 'There are three figures worth of them so it's quite difficult to peel them off individually at this point.' Labour's Scottish MPs were said to have been particularly angry in their questioning of Pat McFadden, the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, on winter fuel and welfare during a meeting of MPs last week. In contrast to the Westminster government, Holyrood announced in November that every Scottish pensioner household would receive a winter fuel payment this year. One source said there were 'increasing divisions' within Labour's parliamentary party in Westminster, with many of the party's 37 Scottish MPs concerned that the government was not paying sufficient attention to next year's Holyrood elections. They are particularly concerned about the impact on their prospects from the government's welfare reform package. About 433,050 people — or about eight per cent of the population in Scotland — receive adult disability payments, the Scottish equivalent of personal independent payments (PIP). Any reduction on PIP spending by the Treasury would have a knock-on effect on the Scottish government's budget to fund these payments. On Saturday, a busload of about 40 Reform activists will arrive in Hamilton from Runcorn, returning the favour after a Scottish delegation travelled south to help Sarah Pochin overturn a 14,696 Labour majority earlier this month. Although Farage's camp expects to deploy 100 foot soldiers in total, Labour insists it will have twice that number campaigning in Hamilton. 'We are still neck and neck with the SNP,' a senior Labour source said from the constituency. 'We have a well-oiled machine, we know exactly who to target and how. Reform are loud but they don't know what they're doing. 'There is not a chance we will finish third'.
Telegraph
26-05-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Labour rebel: I'll vote against ‘deeply uncomfortable' disability cuts
A Labour rebel has said he will vote against Sir Keir Starmer's 'deeply uncomfortable' welfare cuts, as a backbench backlash against the reforms continues. Peter Lamb, the MP for Crawley, warned the Prime Minister and Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, that if the changes were put to a vote 'the political outcome rests entirely on their heads'. Sir Keir is facing the biggest rebellion of his premiership over planned cuts in his welfare Bill, with more than 100 of his MPs set to defy the Government. Under the proposals, only the most disabled adults in society would be allowed to claim Personal Independence Payments, while the under-22s would become ineligible for Universal Credit. Mr Lamb told BBC Radio 4's Westminster Hour: 'I know a lot of people, and these are not people on the far-Left of the party, who are deeply uncomfortable with some of the decisions that've already been taken, who are deeply uncomfortable with this proposal. 'It would be very, very hard at this point for them to turn around and change direction on this. It is something that matters an awful lot to people, we didn't come into politics to impoverish the most vulnerable members of society.'
Daily Mail
26-05-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Keir Starmer mulls sealing hat-trick of U-turns by watering down disability benefit changes as well as winter fuel and child cash cuts to appease Labour MPs
Keir Starmer is on course to complete a hat-trick of U-turns as he mulls watering down £5bn worth of disability benefit cuts in order to see off attacks from Labour backbenchers and Nigel Farage. Reports suggest that claimants could get more time to seek support before Labour's welfare cuts are implemented under 'tweaks' being considered by the Prime Minister. Sir Keir is facing a mounting backbench rebellion to plans to make it harder for people to claim incapacity payments, in order to save money and get people into work. Peter Lamb, the Labour MP for Crawley, is the latest to publicly state he would vote against the plan, saying the party ranks are 'deeply uncomfortable' with it. The PM has already signalled he plans to ease cuts to £300 winter fuel payment handouts for pensioners, and could soften the two-child cap on handouts for parents. As well as uncomfortable Labour MPs, Reform UK leader Mr Farage is expected this week to commit to restoring the winter fuel payment in full, as well as scrapping the two-child benefit cap. The move is an attempt to outflank Labour with its traditional working class supporters, according to Reform sources. However, a course hit back accusing him of 'cosplaying' support for working people. The Times said the Prime Minister is seeking to soften the blow of the cuts comes as he faces the growing threat of a backbench rebellion over the package of measures, which ministers hope will save the public purse £5 billion a year. Benefit claimants could be given longer 'transitional periods' to seek out other benefits if they lose out as a result of the reforms, according to the Times. A backbench rebellion over the proposals, which would tighten eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip) as part of a package aimed at getting more working age people currently on benefits into jobs, could spread to more than 100 MPs, some reports have suggested. Mr Lamb last night told BBC Radio 4's Westminster Hour he would be 'voting against anything which is going to restrict access to Personal Independence Payments (Pip) further than it's currently restricted'. 'I know a lot of people, and these are not people on the far left of the party, who are deeply uncomfortable with some of the decisions that've already been taken, who are deeply uncomfortable with this proposal,' he said. It would be very very hard at this point for them to turn around and change direction on this. It is something that matters an awful lot to people, we didn't come into politics to impoverish the most vulnerable members of society.' Meanwhile Stella Creasy said the two-child benefit cap should be lifted. The Walthamstow MP told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that lifting the cap would take '350,000 children out of poverty overnight'. 'It's worth reflecting on the fact that 60 per cent of those kids are in households where somebody is in work,' she added. 'What really matters is that child poverty strategy, because none of us want to be dependent on the welfare system as a way of helping every family make ends meet. 'And I am painfully aware of how many people in my local community still have too much month at the end of their money.' Health minister Karin Smyth said 'politics is always about choices', telling BBC Radio 5 Live the Government had been able to ensure there was money for the NHS. On the winter fuel payment U-turn, she said: 'It's an important balance, isn't it, in democracy to look at policies as they land, to listen to people affected, and what the Prime Minister is saying is that… we're looking at how people at the margins are impacted by that particular policy, I think that's the sign of a government that is listening. 'The Chancellor and the Treasury will have to review all of these in light of the key mission, which is to grow the economy and maintain economic stability. 'We know government is hard, and I think listening, looking at policies, how they impact, weighing up those costs and benefits is exactly the right thing to do.' Labour backbenchers have already secured a partial U-turn from Sir Keir over the winter fuel payment cut, and are ramping up pressure on the Prime Minister to also scrap the two-child benefit cap. The Prime Minister announced the change of direction on winter fuel at PMQs in the Commons last week, though details of when and how more pensioners might get the payment were not revealed. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner on Sunday indicated an announcement could come in weeks. Ms Rayner suggested the Spending Review on June 11 was the 'first opportunity' to make the change. 'I mean, the Prime Minister has announced it, so logically to me that indicates that the Prime Minister wants to do something in this area. 'And if the Prime Minister wants to do that, I'm sure the Chancellor is going to look at how we can achieve that,' she told Sky News. Ministers have reportedly been considering scrapping the cap, which restricts the amount of benefits parents can claim for more than two of their children, as part of their child poverty strategy. Critics of the cap say removing it would be one of the most significant ways to prevent child poverty. The plan, which was due to be published in the spring, is now set to come in the autumn so it can be aligned with the budget. The Deputy PM branded Mr Farage a 'snake oil salesman' when she appeared on LBC on Sunday, and suggested Reform does not have a fully-costed plan behind its commitment.
The Independent
24-05-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Starmer faces major revolt over benefits cuts as frontbenchers ‘poised to quit' over reforms
Keir Starmer is facing the biggest rebellion of his premiership, as more than 150 MPs are preparing to vote against his upcoming welfare cuts. As many as five frontbenchers are reportedly said to be considering quitting over the issue amid deep concern over the impact of the proposed changes, which will see personal independence payments cut for around 800,000 people. One frontbencher told The Independent she is horrified by the direction of the government, claiming that the prime minister simply doesn't care what his MPs think. It comes after more than 100 MPs — understood to be primarily made up of those who won their seats for the first time in 2024 — signed a letter to the chief whip warning that they are unable to support the bill in its current form. It is understood a separate letter signed by around 40 MPs was sent to Sir Keir warning against proceeding with the changes in their full form just days before. Meanwhile, sources told the i Paper that around five junior members of the frontbench would be prepared to quit if changes are not made to the upcoming cuts. While a rebellion of this scale would not be enough for the bill to be defeated, it would be a significant knock to the prime minister's authority and represent wider disquiet with the direction of the government. It comes despite the prime minister U-turning on his controversial cuts to winter fuel payments earlier this week, after months of mounting anger from voters and Labour MPs. In a major climbdown over Rachel Reeves ' decision to strip payments from 10 million pensioners, the prime minister said he wanted to look at widening eligibility 'as the economy improves'. The decision to means-test the annual payment of up to £300, rather than give it to all pensioners, was widely blamed for Labour's disastrous recent local election results, which saw Nigel Farage's Reform party surge to take 677 council seats in England. The reversal was part of an attempt by Sir Keir to turn around his party's fortunes amid fears of a rebellion from backbenchers over benefit cuts, anger over his language on immigration and difficult poll ratings. However, it emerged on Friday that Labour has delayed a flagship plan designed to cut child poverty until the autumn. Just weeks after coming to power, ministers said they would consider ditching the 'cruel' two-child benefit cap in a bid to head off a backbench Labour revolt. But the overall strategy in which the policy was expected to be included has now been pushed back, despite fears of a rebellion on welfare cuts within weeks. The package of welfare cuts is aimed at reducing the number of working-age people on sickness benefits, which grew during the pandemic and has remained high since. While the government hopes the proposals can save £5bn a year by the end of the decade, there are fears it would push thousands of disabled people into poverty. In recent days, Downing Street has indicated that the government plans to press ahead with the reforms in full, with the prime minister's official spokesperson saying the welfare system is 'fundamentally not working and the argument for reform is overwhelming'. The Department for Work and Pensions has been contacted for comment.
