Trump's peace-deal demands leave Ukraine's Zelenskyy with only bad options
This is the existential dilemma confronting the Ukrainian leader as he travels to Washington for talks with the U.S. president on Monday. Fresh off a summit in Alaska with Vladimir Putin that bypassed a ceasefire, Trump has left Zelenskyy little room to maneuver.
The situation is made even more tenuous by the memory of his last visit to the White House in February that erupted into a bitter exchange between Zelenskyy and Trump and briefly led to a halt in military support. This time a coterie of European leaders will accompany him, but they have questionable leverage and haven't always been on the same page.
The entourage will seek clarity from Trump on exactly what security guarantees the U.S. is willing to provide as it attempts to orchestrate a meeting with the Ukrainian president and Putin. Among the group accompanying Zelenskyy are people Trump has struck a strong personal rapport with, including NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
Aside from avoiding another dispute and maintaining Trump's interest in brokering a deal, Zelenskyy's objectives in the talks include: learning more about Putin's demands, pinning down the timing for a trilateral meeting, and prodding the U.S. toward tougher sanctions against Russia, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations.
Whether he can achieve any of these goals will depend on how much, in the view of European officials, Putin has gotten into Trump's head. After Friday's summit, Trump appeared to align again with the Russian president by dropping demands for an immediate ceasefire as a condition for opening negotiations. Instead, he said he'll urge Zelenskyy to act fast on a peace plan.
"Putin has many demands,' Zelenskyy said Sunday at a joint news conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels, a stopover to prepare for the Washington visit. "It will take time to go through them all — it's impossible to do this under the pressure of weapons,' he said, adding that a ceasefire would be needed to "work quickly on a final deal.'
Raising the stakes for Kyiv, the U.S. president sounded open to Putin's demands that Ukraine give up large areas of land in the east of the country, which the Russian army and its proxies have been trying to seize since 2014.
French President Emmanuel Macron attends a video conference with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy as part of the so-called coalition of the willing on Sunday at the Fort de Bregancon in Bormes-les-Mimosas, France. |
Pool / via REUTERS
Despite the harsh demands on Ukraine, there are signs that the U.S. is now prepared to back a deal. Following his meeting with Putin, Trump told European leaders that the U.S. could contribute to any security guarantees and that Putin was prepared to accept that. But it remains unclear what kind of security guarantees are being discussed with Putin, and what the Kremlin leader is willing to accept.
"We got to an agreement that the U.S. and other nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to Ukraine,' Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, said in an interview with CNN, referring to the NATO provision that says if one ally is attacked, it is considered an attack on all members.
Trump is also under pressure. He had promised that after taking office in January he would quickly end Russia's full-scale invasion, which is in its fourth year. His efforts were mainly targeted at Kyiv but he ultimately had to acknowledge it was the Kremlin that didn't want to stop the war.
Trump on Sunday insisted that he made "BIG PROGRESS ON RUSSIA' in a post on Truth Social.
But instead of yielding to Trump, Russia has intensified attacks. Civilian deaths have mounted, with June and July the deadliest months in more than three years, according to the United Nations.
Ahead of the Alaska summit, Trump said refusal to accept a ceasefire would trigger tough new punitive measures on Moscow and countries buying Russian oil. After the meeting, which included a red-carpet reception for Putin and a shared ride in the U.S. leader's armored limo, Trump called off the threats.
Rather than punish the aggressor, he declared he's seeking a full peace deal that includes "lands' swap' and urged Zelenskyy to accept it. On Sunday, the Ukrainian leader reaffirmed his stance that he won't give up territory or trade land.
"Since the territorial issue is so important, it should be discussed only by the leaders of Ukraine and Russia' at a meeting accompanied by the U.S., Zelenskyy said. "So far Russia gives no sign the trilateral will happen.'
Zelenskyy's refusal to accept territorial losses is a position shared by the majority of Ukrainians. But the level of support has softened as counteroffensives sputter and casualties mount. Still, fears are that a further retreat could invite later attacks.
Talks in Washington will also be pivotal for Zelenskyy domestically. In late July, he faced his first political crisis since Russia invaded. Thousands took to the streets over his move to undermine anti-corruption institutions. Zelenskyy relented and re-installed independence to agencies that investigate top officials.
U.S. President Trump walks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin as Putin arrives as Joint Base Elmendorf Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday. |
Doug Mills / The New York Times
His position in the talks is complicated by divisions between the U.S., Ukraine and other allies. Trump believes Russia can take the whole of Ukraine — although the Kremlin has managed only to seize less than a fifth of Ukraine's territory despite more than 1 million war casualties. Europeans, meanwhile, are wary that favorable conditions could encourage Putin to widen his aggression.
"It is important that America agrees to work with Europe to provide security guarantees for Ukraine,' Zelenskyy said on Sunday. "But there are no details how it'll work and what America's role will be, what Europe's role will be, what the EU can do. And this is our main task.'
By joining Zelenskyy at his meeting with Trump at the White House, European leaders hope to show support for Ukraine's leader as he faces growing U.S. pressure to agree to a quick deal.
Beyond von der Leyen, Rutte and Stubb, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have confirmed their participation. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will join the talks as well, according to an official.
Macron said that any agreement needs to maintain the strength of Ukraine's military, as well as include the involvement of European and even U.S. support, including training and logistics.
"Several states are ready to do it,' Macron told reporters outside the presidential summer residence in the south of France, adding that allied forces may also be stationed in "non-hot zones' inside Ukraine. "We're going to present that in asking the U.S. up to what point they're ready to join these forces.'
While Trump had gone into Friday's summit with Putin seeking a ceasefire, he'd emerged saying he was going to focus on a final settlement.
Witkoff said the switch was made because Putin and Trump made "so much progress' that there was no need for a ceasefire period in which the details would be worked out.
"The thesis of a ceasefire is that you'd be discussing all of these issues that we already resolved' in Alaska, Witkoff said on CNN, noting that they couldn't finalize any discussion of land swaps because Zelenskyy needed to be directly involved.
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