Looking back at the Maple Leafs' disastrous 2020 draft, 5 years later

New York Times

5 hours ago

Five years ago, the Maple Leafs approached their largest draft class since 2001 with a clear plan: take swings.
'We more look at the draft as our chance to really kind of strike with home runs and guys that can really become impact players,' then-general manager Kyle Dubas said after the Leafs made a remarkable 12 picks over two days in the 2020 NHL Draft.
Advertisement
Five years since Dubas and the Leafs bet almost solely on skill and hockey IQ, regardless of size, they did not hit any home runs. They didn't even get on base.
No NHL team made more picks in the 2020 draft than the Leafs. No team has a worse record from that draft, either.
The Leafs have not received a single NHL game from the 12 picks they made. The only other NHL team to not see any draft pick play an NHL game from that class is the Vancouver Canucks, who made only five picks. Two of the Leafs' three highest picks, Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemela, signed in Europe this month.
So with the 2025 draft approaching, looking back at the Leafs' 2020 draft brings to light how massive a failing, partly due to tragedy, it was for the organization — the ramifications of which are being felt today.
The Leafs entered 2020 with the hope of heavily bolstering their prospect pool. They understood the likelihood they'd have to move draft picks in future years to add roster players and continue to contend.
'Our next draft is 2021 and we have our first, our second, and if we can move those out for help, we won't hesitate to do so,' Dubas said.
And so the Leafs focused on unearthing gems and finding overlooked players in 2020.
'If you look back at our drafts or a lot of them in hockey, the guys that usually end up hitting later on are guys who were overlooked for some reason,' Dubas said in 2020. 'Size is an issue, skating is the issue sometimes. There are a lot of examples of players that were overlooked because of their size that end up becoming great picks in the second or third through to the seventh round.'
Not getting caught up in a player's size would be the defining trait of the Leafs' draft class.
So what happened with these players?
Rodion Amirov died tragically at age 21 due to brain cancer.
But none of the other 11 picks have played an NHL game.
Roni Hirvonen: After four seasons of incremental growth playing among men in Liiga, Hirvonen didn't improve in the same manner in North America. His first season was marred by tragedy. His father died during brain surgery ahead of his AHL debut, then two games into that season, he suffered a catastrophic eye injury. Though he returned to the Marlies in full this season, Hirvonen never looked capable of providing enough offence and taking the next step for the Leafs. He signed a one-year contract with Finland's Kärpät in June.
Advertisement
Topi Niemela: Once one of the best prospects in the Leafs system, Niemela never became the NHL defenceman he projected to be. His hockey IQ, skating and production in Finland made him seem like a bargain in the third round, but his size and lack of a leap this season led to his departure. It became impossible to imagine a smallish, skilled defender on Brad Treliving's towering blue line. On Monday, Niemela signed a one-year contract with Sweden's Malmö Redhawks.
Artur Akhtyamov: Perhaps the only player on this list with a chance to play NHL games. The goalie came flying out of the gates in his debut Marlies season before cooling off but still showed flashes of potential with his puck-reading ability to become an NHL backup.
William Villeneuve: The pending RFA has had three seasons of steady production with the Marlies, with some improvement in his breakouts and offence creation. Yet he hasn't made himself impossible to ignore. With an NHL chance looking unlikely next season, a qualifying offer isn't a given.
Dmitry Ovchinnikov: Drafted as a sharp-shooting goal scorer, the centre spent parts of three seasons with the Marlies before being shipped out for Connor Dewar.
Veeti Miettinen: Showed promise with an excellent rookie season at St. Cloud State but his game never progressed to an NHL level. After four seasons, his Leafs rights expired. He has spent the last two seasons in Finland.
Axel Rindell: The offence-first blueliner played 11 games between the Marlies and the ECHL's Newfoundland Growlers in 2022-23. Without enough progression in his defensive game, Rindell moved to Sweden. The Leafs no longer own his rights.
Joe Miller: Miller is the definition of a project. He spent two seasons in the USHL after being drafted and three more at Harvard. Yes, he's taken on more responsibility in his offensive game and was nearly a point-per-game player last season. But at his height (5-10) and weight (165), he'll need to become a true offensive wizard next season to earn a Leafs contract.
Advertisement
John Fusco: After one year at Harvard and another three at Dartmouth College, his Leafs rights will likely expire this summer.
Wyatt Schingoethe: The stocky two-way centre spent four seasons at Western Michigan University. Another player touted in 2020 to have a long development path, his Leafs rights could expire this summer.
Ryan Tverberg: After a noteworthy AHL rookie season, the winger's production fell from 32 points in 2023-24 to 11 points this year in the same number of games. At 5-foot-11, he's going to have to fill the net a lot more to get noticed by the Leafs' staff. He has one more year left on his entry-level contract.
The Leafs not getting any NHL games from their 2020 draft class is not necessarily a cut-and-dried case.
First, where the Leafs erred: There was not enough variety in their picks. Every skater they drafted fits a similar profile: smallish, smart and skilled. There's room, but only so much room, for players of this ilk on an NHL roster. By not balancing the profiles of players selected, the Leafs did not account for different eventual holes to fill on their NHL roster.
Throw in some heavy defenders with a propensity to clean things up in front of the net. Power forwards who don't need to blast through the neutral zone but can win battles in ugly areas of the ice. Checking forwards who can be trusted to kill penalties.
Yes, the draft is a chance to swing. But in a sense, by missing on one pitch, the Leafs whiffed on every other one.
'These guys are going to grow,' Dubas said. 'They are going to get bigger. Some of them may not, but they are very good players.'
In the end, the reason many of the Leafs' picks were overlooked ended up coming back to haunt them. The Leafs' picks didn't grow enough to compete at the NHL level, and their smarts and skill were not elite enough to produce the kind of offence that would deem their size irrelevant. Hirvonen added only 1 inch and 9 pounds to his frame. Niemela? One inch but, to his credit, 19 pounds.
Advertisement
The Leafs wanted to blend skill with players who had experience playing against men in European professional leagues. There was a hope that experience gave these prospects a leg up on the competition.
'Obviously, it is not the NHL, but it gives us a lot of positive thought about how they will be able to handle (the jump to the NHL),' Dubas said after the draft.
In October 2020, which is when the draft was held, the COVID-19 pandemic led to uncertainty about what the immediate future would look like for the CHL. Would Canadian-based players be able to continue their development with regular playing time after the draft?
At the time, Dubas publicly refuted the idea the Leafs selected players whose upcoming seasons were ready to go ahead.
'That really didn't enter into our mind a whole lot, but it certainly, at the very least, gives us games of theirs to watch and be able to kind of build our database further on them,' Dubas said.
Instead, the gap between leagues such as Finland's Liiga and the NHL proved too wide for prospects. In the drafts from 2021 to 2023, the Leafs made 11 picks; five players were drafted from the CHL and only three players were drafted from European leagues.
The downfall of the 2020 draft haul is not all on Dubas and others making those picks.
Front office changes have also meant an overhaul in philosophy. As a result, in the years following the draft, the Leafs' 2020 class may not have been given every opportunity to play NHL games, considering their circumstances. How could anyone involved have known that in a few years, new Leafs general manager Brad Treliving would place a premium on size and experience, or that new Leafs coach Craig Berube would heavily favour aging veterans instead of hungry young players?
This isn't a case of right or wrong, but simply a difference in approach. The Leafs' current general manager and coach don't place as high a premium on smallish, skilled players as their predecessors.
Advertisement
In the two years after the draft, the Leafs looked to have come out ahead. Niemela was named best defenceman at the 2021 World Juniors. His 2021-22 season in Liiga was one of the most productive from an under-20 defenceman in league history. Hirvonen captained Finland at the 2022 World Juniors and showed promise by scoring key goals on a team that medalled twice with him on the roster.
With Dubas in charge and hockey sense still of the utmost priority, it was easy to envision a future where Niemela, whose effort could never be doubted and who added more two-way tools to his game, would get NHL games. And if Dubas and Keefe had still been in charge this season, doesn't it feel more likely Villeneuve, who quietly led all Marlies defencemen in scoring with 40 points in 55 games this season, might have gotten an NHL look?
After all, Nick Abruzzese — a 2019 pick and a smallish one at that — got a brief NHL run under Keefe and Dubas in 2022-23. By contrast, Nick Robertson, who fits the same description as Abruzzese, has failed to find a regular lineup spot under Berube and Treliving.
To give late-round picks time to find their sea legs in an organization, they often must have the continued backing of the people who invited them onboard.
But things changed. And now the Leafs' drafts could look very different than they did in 2020.
The outcome of the 2020 draft should not serve as an indictment on Dubas' draft record as a whole. Getting Matthew Knies, a top-line winger, in the late second round in 2021 was a steal. Rasmus Sandin has played the 14th-most games of any player drafted in 2018, despite going late in the first round. Even Robertson, taken midway through the second round in 2019, would likely be a first-round pick in a redraft.
The Leafs also do not deserve criticism for who they missed out on — power forward Will Cuylle was taken one pick after Hirvonen, for example — because every NHL team can be accused of missing out on players at the draft.
Advertisement
It's just the sheer number of swings-and-misses in 2020 that sting five years later and have proved to hurt the Leafs' chances of sustaining their success next season. The Leafs have serious roster holes to fill up front this summer. They're being forced to do so via the two most expensive routes: free agency and trade.
Across the NHL, good teams that drafted well in 2020 now have cost-controlled lineup options. Alex Laferriere, taken in the third round in 2020, is a second-line RFA forward for the Los Angeles Kings. The New York Rangers will look to bounce back this season with Brett Berard and Matt Rempe, taken in the fifth and sixth rounds. Nico Daws, a 6-foot-4 goalie nabbed in the third round, appears on track to back up Jacob Markström next season for the New Jersey Devils.
Having even one player from the 2020 draft class on track to be a full-time NHL player next season might have provided the Leafs with legitimate salary cap flexibility. Instead, only three players have contracts with the franchise and none have a strong chance of playing NHL games next season.
This weekend, Toronto's six picks represent the second most in a single draft since 2020. Perhaps there are lessons to be learned to ensure that come 2030, the Leafs have the kind of homegrown talent from late in the draft they so desperately need.
(Top photo of Topi Niemela: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)