Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS (Probably) Isn't an Alien Spacecraft, But Here Are All the Theories

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a day ago

The space rock 3I/ATLAS is only the third confirmed interstellar object discovered by astronomers, following 'Oumuamua and the comet Borisov. While astronomers are still busily collecting data on the new discovery, they think it originated from the Milky Way's thick disk. If so, it may be as old as 7 billion years, a couple billion years older than our entire solar system.
Its path through space will take it between the orbits of Earth and Mars before it heads back out toward interstellar space again. When it was discovered by NASA's ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) on July 1, 2025, it was traveling a blistering 137,000 miles per hour and getting faster. It will be moving faster than 150,000 miles per hour when it makes its closest approach with the Sun.
The asteroid gets its name from a combination of its place in astronomical history (3I being short for third interstellar) and the ATLAS telescope which made the discovery. Astronomers know it's interstellar because its trajectory puts it on a hyperbolic orbit which will send it back into deep space after a close pass through the inner solar system later this year.
The comet is traveling within 5 degrees of the ecliptic plane (the imaginary plane upon which the Earth and most of the rest of the solar system spin) and it will pass relatively close to Venus, Mars, and Jupiter during its visit. It's that same trajectory that astronomer Avi Loeb says may be evidence of alien technology.
3I/ATLAS, the Fermi Paradox, and the Dark Forest hypothesis
Loeb suggests that 3I/ATLAS is on the sort of path an alien intelligence might chart if they wanted to learn more about us and our system. He also says that the probability of the trajectory so close to three planets has a combined probability of just 0.005%
This isn't the first time Loeb has suggested alien origins for interstellar objects. He suggested that 'Oumuamua may have been an alien probe and he combed the ocean floor with a magnetic rake looking for debris from downed alien spacecraft. This time, at least, Loeb says his speculations about 3I/ATLAS are mostly a thought experiment.
"As largely a pedagogical exercise, in this paper we present additional analysis into the astrodynamics of 3I/ATLAS, and hypothesize that this object could be technological, and possibly hostile as would be expected from the 'Dark Forest' resolution to the 'Fermi Paradox'," authors Avi Loeb, Adam Hibberd, and Adam Crowl wrote in a preprint paper posted to arXiv. The paper has not been peer reviewed.
For More on Interstellar Objects:
In 1950, physicist Enrico Fermi went to lunch and posed one of the biggest unanswered questions in the history of astronomy: Where is everyone? If there are so many stars and so many worlds, with so many opportunities for life to arise, why are we seemingly alone in the cosmos? With 14 billion years of universal history, it feels like the skies should be filled with spacefarers, uncrewed probes, and radio signals. In spite of all this, there are no apparent signs of life out there.
With a sample size of one (Earth), it's impossible to draw conclusions about how common life is in the universe or why we haven't found it yet. Dozens of solutions have been proposed for the Great Silence including that we really are alone, that we're early in the evolution of the universe and one of the first intelligent species to arise, and that technological civilizations tend to destroy themselves. And then there's the Dark Forest hypothesis.
Taking its name from Liu Cixin's 2008 science fiction novel The Dark Forest, in which there are many civilizations in the universe, but they are hostile and quiet. It's similar to the Deadly Probes scenario, also known as the Berserker hypothesis, which suggests we haven't found alien life because it has all been destroyed by killer self-replicating spacecraft. The Dark Forest compares the universe to an environment filled with predators in which the best way to survive is to be silent. Similar themes were explored in the 1987 novel The Forge of God in which author Greg Bear likens humanity to a crying baby in a hostile forest.
In these scenarios, when the intentions of an alien civilization can't be known it might be best to shoot first and ask questions later. And, if the prevailing attitude of the cosmos is antagonistic, then the only way to survive long-term is stealth. Many civilizations may choose not to explore or communicate, instead remaining quietly and safely on their home planets. If you're going to explore, you might want to do it covertly. Disguising your probes as interstellar space rocks might be one way to do that.
Loeb, Hibberd, and Crowl make the case that if 3I/ATLAS were an alien spacecraft, its current trajectory would allow it to access Earth easily. When it's behind the Sun and blocked from our view, it could secretly thrust to slow down and fall into orbit around the Sun. If it wanted to, it could then chart a course for Earth, arriving as soon as November or December. Of course, even Loeb thinks that's unlikely.
'By far, the most likely outcome will be that 3I/ATLAS is a completely natural interstellar object, probably a comet, and we await the astronomical data to support this likely origin,' Loeb said.
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