Britain's beleaguered housing market is now at the mercy of buyers

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a day ago

The housing market is being flooded with supply – there has been a 13pc jump in the number of homes for sale during the past year.
This is particularly extreme in the South West, according to Zoopla, where there are now one fifth more properties on the market than last year.
There is a huge mismatch of supply and demand, creating a property market where the power lies firmly with buyers – and where house prices could slump.
Record numbers of sellers are being forced to reduce the price of their properties, according to analytics firm TwentyCi – it has recorded 500,000 price reductions so far in 2025, up from 420,000 for the same period in 2024 and just 193,000 in 2022.
Homes are selling for an average of £16,000, or 3pc, below their asking price, according to Zoopla, although in some areas this will be much higher.
Exacerbating the huge shock of supply is the fact that demand from buyers is in the doldrums. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (Rics), which polls its members on the state of the property market, found that would-be buyers are steering clear.
Its measure of net balance of new buyer enquiries, which is the difference between those reporting a positive or negative outlook, dropped from -16pc in February to -33pc in April, Rics said, albeit with a slight recovery to -26pc in May. April's slump came in the wake of a jump in stamp duty, particularly for first-time buyers.
'Most parts of the UK are now seeing a weaker buyer demand picture coming through as concerns over both the domestic and global economy continue to weigh on confidence,' RICS said.
But there are signs that demand may be picking up – which will help to stop house prices slumping. The rise in available properties has already boosted the the number of sales agreed, which is at a four-year high, and 6pc higher than a year ago, Zoopla found.
Demand is being boosted in other ways. A quiet tweak to lending rules by the Financial Conduct Authority means that borrowers can get bigger loans, which will particularly help first-time buyers.
This could boost the average house price – currently around £260,000 – by as much as £19,425, according to estate agent Savills.
However, all this is unlikely to be enough to put much power in the hands of sellers due to the sheer scale of available homes for sale.
Zoopla reported that there are 21pc more homes for sale in the South West compared to this time last year, with 17pc more in London and 15pc more in the South East, resulting in slower price growth.
'This, along with affordability constraints, explains why house price growth is less than 1pc across all regions of southern England, from 0.5pc in the South East to 0.9pc in the South West,' Zoopla's report adds.
The current state of the market means that sellers should price their homes sensibly – but buyers must still be pragmatic when making offers, says Zoopla's Richard Donnell.
'It's a buyer's market, but you can't be stupid – if you really like a property you need to make a serious offer. You can't afford to lose it, especially if you're going to be there for a long term. We're in a good period for the market – buyers aren't being stupid, and sellers are being forced to keep their prices in a sensible range.'
Just because lending rules have been loosened slightly, it doesn't mean we will see a huge wave of would-be buyers entering the market.
'Because lenders can only lend 15pc of their portfolios to high-loan-to-value borrowers, I'm not sure how much of an effect it will have,' says Aneisha Beveridge of Hamptons.
This restriction places a ceiling on how many first-time-buyer mortgages they are able to sell. Beveridge also points out that first-time buyers are already purchasing a third of homes, a record high.
Donnell adds that the changes to borrowing rules will mainly help wealthier renters at the upper end of the market, who already have a deposit for a home.
'This doesn't help those trapped in the rental market with no hope of buying because they can't afford a deposit. There are so many people in the South who can't afford to buy a two- or three-bedroom house, even with new stress testing.'
Ultimately this will do little more than facilitate a bit more activity, Donnell adds. 'This extra borrowing capacity will make moving more realistic, it will oil the wheels of the market. This isn't going to cause massive growth in house prices.'
The market is unlikely to see a notable boost to prices without a drastic change in the economic outlook, explains Lucian Cook, of Savills.
'[There is an] underlying uncertainty regarding the economy, which isn't helped by geopolitical events around the globe. Buyers are going to have some caution – they know that public finances are tight, and there could be tax increases around the corner putting a squeeze on their household finances.
'To get into a sustained recovery, and eat into the housing stock available at the moment, you need a clearer path with what is going to happen on interest rates.'
But should the economy improve, buyer confidence can dramatically increase. 'Stuff can change very quickly. Any changes to the economic outlook can move mortgage rates – inflation data, for example,' explains Beveridge.
The right combination of improved consumer confidence and lending rule changes could, in a best case scenario for the market, boost demand significantly, adds Cook.
'We're going to find out over the next 18 months whether the change in mortgage regulation will actually bring lots of new buyers into the market.
'It could bring 47,000 to 80,000 additional first-time buyers per annum over the medium term. But it's difficult to know when that will occur, because it comes down to sentiment.'
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