logo
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 1, 2025

Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 1, 2025

Bloomberg01-04-2025

- Ed Yardeni, Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research - Tobin Marcus, Head: Policy & Politics at Wolfe Research - Francisco Blanch, Head: Global Commodities & Derivatives Research at Bank of America - Emily Roland, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research discusses why he's again lowering his S&P target for 2025. Tobin Marcus with Wolfe Research previews President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement and what investors should expect. Bank of America's Francisco Blanch talks about opportunities in commodities as equity uncertainty grows over economic policy. Emily Roland, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, talks about whether investors should be rethinking their equity allocation amid incoming tariff policy.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

What's next for Fannie and Freddie under Trump administration?
What's next for Fannie and Freddie under Trump administration?

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

What's next for Fannie and Freddie under Trump administration?

-- Bank of America analysts say President Trump's recent remarks about Fannie Mae (OTC:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC) signal a shift in housing policy direction under a potential second term, but near-term reform remains unlikely. According to BofA, Trump's Truth Social posts suggest 'recap and keep,' in contrast to the post-GFC push for 'recap and release.' Policy experts at BofA's 2025 Housing Symposium noted that 'high mortgage rates, timing (ahead of midterms), and complications (particularly with monetizing the government's $300+bn liquidation preference) all make this an improbable near-term event.' Both GSEs still fall 'materially short (~$135bn combined) of the capital requirements' under the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs), though panelists argued those targets 'have long been regarded as too strict' and could change, according to the bank. Analysts said the GSEs 'take on much less risk now' than they did pre-GFC, and are capitalized at about 2.15%, a significant improvement over 'capital ratios of roughly 45bps pre-GFC.' The symposium is said to have highlighted optimism surrounding FHFA director Bill Pulte's leadership. Though panelists acknowledged his 'lack of experience could stifle his intentions,' they viewed his 'private-equity style' management approach as focused on 'reducing bureaucracy, improving operational efficiencies and working to turn profitable.' Panelists are even said to have suggested the GSEs' footprint could expand to include more 'high margin business… historically thought to be 'mission creep' (e.g. second liens, second homes).' Elsewhere, alternative credit scoring has resurfaced, but adoption remains doubtful. 'Meaningful adoption of Vantage score for mortgage underwriting seems unlikely,' BofA wrote, citing 'lack of robust historical data.' Related articles What's next for Fannie and Freddie under Trump administration? Is the stage finally set for transcontinental rail mergers? What are next big copper projects? UBS tells when equipment makers could benefit Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Yield Hunters Fuel a $331 Billion Wave of Emerging Bond Sales
Yield Hunters Fuel a $331 Billion Wave of Emerging Bond Sales

Yahoo

time2 hours ago

  • Yahoo

Yield Hunters Fuel a $331 Billion Wave of Emerging Bond Sales

(Bloomberg) -- Strong demand from yield-hungry investors is driving a surge in developing-world bond sales as borrowers race to secure financing ahead of any further wobbles in global markets. Next Stop: Rancho Cucamonga! Where Public Transit Systems Are Bouncing Back Around the World ICE Moves to DNA-Test Families Targeted for Deportation with New Contract US Housing Agency Vulnerable to Fraud After DOGE Cuts, Documents Warn Trump Said He Fired the National Portrait Gallery Director. She's Still There. Since the beginning of the year, emerging-market governments and companies have sold $331 billion in debt denominated in hard currencies like the dollar and euro, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That is the fastest pace in four years and already surpasses the total in the first half of 2024. Investors have fueled a broad rally in international assets amid questions about the long-standing dominance of US markets, which have sent the value of the dollar down. Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. both forecast that EM assets should gain with a declining dollar, while Societe Generale said local assets in developing nations are going through a 'goldilocks' moment. The extra yield investors demand to hold dollar bonds from emerging countries over US Treasuries has fallen and is inches away from the lowest level since 2020, according to a JPMorgan index. But demand has held up because spreads are tighter in US markets as well. 'If you're a CFO or treasurer you go when the window is open,' said Omotunde Lawal, head of EM corporate debt at Barings Investment Services. 'If US fiscal concerns keep on the top of minds then US yields will push higher — so maybe best to issue now rather than later.' A lack of clarity about the strength of the US economy is also leading many borrowers to issue bonds quickly in case there is more turmoil ahead, according to Stefan Weiler, the head of debt capital markets for Central Europe, the Middle East and Africa at JPMorgan in London. 'From a borrower perspective, the incentive of being patient has gone,' Weiler said. If there is a US recession, which JPMorgan assigns a 40% probability to, spreads would likely widen, making it more expensive for emerging markets to borrow, he added. 'It's really more about accessing the market when it's available.' The strong issuance began early in the year as developing nations around the world moved past a wave of post-pandemic defaults in 2024 and countries from Vietnam to Chile announced new economic reforms. While there was a slowdown immediately after US President Donald Trump announced global tariffs in early April, causing volatility to skyrocket, the market for emerging bonds bounced back strongly after the threat of harsh levies faded. The lull may be short-lived as the administration is set to review tariff policies in early July. 'EM has proved to be a comparative safe haven over this period,' according to Carmen Altenkirch, an analyst at Aviva Investors. 'Fundamentals have continued to improve, and sovereigns are getting rewarded for their prudence.' High Grade Investment-grade borrowers have accounted for more than 70% of the total bonds issued this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Mexico landed a record deal at the start of the year, while Saudi Arabia sold $12 billion in a triple-tranche transaction and activity out of China also picked up. In the Middle East, where most borrowers are investment-grade, funding needs surged amid the collapse in oil prices. The region has seen strong deal activity and will likely account for more than 40% out of all CEEMEA issuance this year, according to Weiler. The return of Latin American companies, many of whom had not been active in offshore markets, also helped drive volumes higher, said Adrian Guzzoni, head of debt capital markets for the region at Citigroup Inc. He's expecting full-year volumes for Latin America to surpass last year's figures. Some high-yield names, such as Brazil, Peru and Telecom Argentina SA have also recently tapped markets. Kyrgyzstan raised $700 million in its first-ever international bond sale, attracting over $2.1 billion in demand for its five-year notes at a yield of 8%. But not all junk issuers can take advantage of this window, highlighting the bifurcation in the developing world in times of high uncertainty. 'Higher Treasury yields, trade uncertainty, and lower oil prices place many lower-rated frontier countries at a distance from market access,' said Samy Muaddi, head of emerging-markets fixed income at T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. in Baltimore. Morgan Stanley strategists are expecting nations like Poland, Romania, Kuwait and Kazakhstan to tap the market soon. Central America countries like Costa Rica and Guatemala may also turn up, said Claudia Calich, head of EM debt at M&G Investment Management. 'If anybody wants to issue, we still have probably a four- to six-week window now,' said Calich. 'Otherwise, you have to wait until September.' What to Watch Inflation data are due in countries including Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, China, India, Mexico, Russia Peru is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% and wait for more information before its next move, according to Bloomberg Economics South Korea will report its unemployment rate on Wednesday --With assistance from Maria Elena Vizcaino and Kevin Simauchi. Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling Is Elon Musk's Political Capital Spent? What Does Musk-Trump Split Mean for a 'Big, Beautiful Bill'? Cuts to US Aid Imperil the World's Largest HIV Treatment Program ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio

See what's open and closed on Juneteenth in Georgia: Banks, post offices, trash pick up
See what's open and closed on Juneteenth in Georgia: Banks, post offices, trash pick up

Yahoo

time7 hours ago

  • Yahoo

See what's open and closed on Juneteenth in Georgia: Banks, post offices, trash pick up

As Juneteenth becomes more widely observed across the U.S., residents in Georgia may be wondering how the holiday will affect their daily routines on Thursday, June 19, 2025. Here's what to expect for banks, trash pickup, and mail services. Short for June 19th, Juneteenth is a day that many celebrate for the emancipation of enslaved African Americans in Texas in 1865. No, the holiday is not banned. However, this year, some Juneteenth events are being called off, and while the reasons vary, a few organizers are pointing to the shifting political landscape under President Donald Trump's leadership. There's no direct link between the Trump administration and the cancellations, but the renewed focus on limiting federal diversity and inclusion programs has stirred concern among some groups. According to Newsweek, here are several cities that have canceled Juneteenth celebrations: Indianapolis, IN Bend, OR Plano, IL Juneteenth is a Federal Reserve bank holiday, which means the Federal Reserve will be closed. While private banks aren't required to follow the federal holiday schedule, most major banks will observe the day. According to USA TODAY, branches of Capital One, Bank of America, PNC, Truist, CitiBank, and JPMorgan Chase will be closed on Juneteenth. Capital One Cafés, however, will remain open. Trash and recycling pickup may be delayed, depending on your local municipality or private provider. Residents are encouraged to check with their city government or waste management company for the most accurate information. The U.S. Postal Service will be closed in observance of Juneteenth, according to The Columbus Dispatch. That means no regular mail delivery or post office operations will take place on June 19. However, FedEx will continue pickup and delivery services, and FedEx Office locations will remain open, according to the company's website. New Year's Day, Jan. 1 Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday, Jan. 20 Washington's Birthday/Presidents' Day, Feb. 17 Memorial Day, May 26 Juneteenth National Independence Day, June 19 Independence Day, July 4 Labor Day, Sept. 1 Columbus Day, Oct. 13 Veterans' Day, Nov. 11 Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 27 Christmas Day, Dec. 25 Vanessa Countryman is the Trending Topics Reporter for the the Deep South Connect Team Georgia. Email her at Vcountryman@ This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: What's open and closed on Juneteenth in Georgia? Banks, post offices

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store