Swing Voters Skeptical of Trump Involving US in Iran-Israel Conflict—Data

Newsweek

3 hours ago

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Swing voters are resistant to President Donald Trump potentially involving the United States in the conflict between Iran and Israel, according to data exclusively shared with Newsweek by Impact Social.
Newsweek reached out to the White House via email for comment.
Why It Matters
Trump is weighing whether to involve the U.S. in the conflict, which escalated earlier this month when Israel launched new strikes against Iran aimed at diminishing its nuclear capabilities. Israel, as well as the U.S., has warned Iran may be close to having the ability to build nuclear weapons.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi told Fox News there is no proof Iran has plans to create a nuclear weapon.
However, many Americans would not necessarily be on board with the U.S. joining the conflict, recent surveys suggest, putting Trump in a challenging situation. The White House said on Thursday that Trump will make a decision within two weeks, and European leaders engaged with Iran on Friday in hopes of de-escalating the situation.
What To Know
Swing voters are skeptical of the U.S. joining the conflict, according to the Impact Social data. The data stem from Impact Social's analysis of social media discussions among swing voters, including disillusioned Trump voters, centrists, and Obama-Trump voters, using social media discussions dating back to May 2016 to identify more than 40,000 swing voters.
Only 9 percent of posts analyzed indicated pro-war sentiment, while 28 percent were anti-war. The majority, at 63 percent, were more neutral, such as sharing articles about the situation.
Of those sharing anti-war sentiment, 24 percent expressed it would be "reckless" to enter the conflict, while 18 percent raised concerns about the U.S. being "used by" Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Fifteen percent expressed blame toward Trump himself over dismantling the Obama administration's Iran nuclear deal.
President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House on June 5, 2025.
President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House on June 5, 2025.Phil Snape of Impact Social wrote that anti-war swing voters "voters draw parallels to Iraq and Afghanistan, accusing Trump of repeating past mistakes."
"Many fear the U.S. is lurching toward 'World War III,' with Iran seen as a more formidable opponent and the stakes higher than in previous engagements," he wrote. "Some accuse the Trump administration of twisting intelligence to fit a pro-war narrative—an eerie echo, they note, of 2003."
Some swing voters also feel the U.S. entering the conflict would be a betrayal of Trump's pledge of no new wars on the campaign trail, Snape wrote.
"Other critics target Trump directly, blaming him for dismantling the Iran nuclear deal brokered by the Obama administration. This reversal, they argue, eliminated a functional—if imperfect—deterrent to Iranian nuclear ambitions, replacing it with a confrontational strategy that has now spiraled out of control," he wrote.
Among those who shared pro-war posts, 35 percent believe it is now time to "finish the job," viewing Iran potentially having nuclear weapons as a "direct threat to the U.S. and Israel." Thirty percent praised Trump's leadership. Nineteen percent shared general anti-Iran sentiment.
Those voters "trust him to manage the situation and protect America."
"For them, Trump is a commander who understands the stakes, one who has 'saved America before' and will do so again," he wrote. "Many cite previous Iranian aggression, including proxy attacks on U.S. troops, as justification for action."
Snape said that what is most striking is the "deep skepticism cutting across both left and right-leaning swing voters."
"This is not a reflexive anti-war response but rather a specific rejection of the idea that U.S. interests are served by joining Israel's military campaign. Critics cite historical precedent, perceived manipulation by foreign leaders, and fears of another endless entanglement in the Middle East," he said.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday: "I don't want to fight either. I'm not looking to fight. But if it's a choice between fighting and them having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do, and maybe we won't have to fight."
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, in a public address: "The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage. The U.S. entering in this matter is 100 percent to its own detriment. The damage it will suffer will be far greater than any harm that Iran may encounter."
Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat, Wednesday on X (formerly Twitter): "The Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war. That's why I filed a resolution to require a debate and vote in Congress before we send our nation's men and women in uniform into harm's way."
What Happens Next
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with European diplomats in Geneva on Friday. Araghchi said Iran would not engage with the U.S. while Israeli strikes continued.