Parliamentary Budget Officer to release new deficit estimates Thursday

Globe and Mail

4 hours ago

Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux will release new deficit forecasts Thursday providing key financial figures lacking as a result of the Liberal government's decision to delay tabling the 2025 budget until fall.
Since the Liberals returned with a minority government following the April 28 federal election, Prime Minister Mark Carney has decided that it will not release a federal budget – which is normally tabled in February or March – until after the House of Commons resumes sitting in September.
Mr. Carney said the government needs time to incorporate the impact of trade tensions with the United States and increased spending on the military, but opposition MPs have repeatedly urged the government to provide a budget or fiscal update before the House of Commons' scheduled break for summer on Friday.
Despite the absence of a budget, Parliament is still being asked to approve spending through votes called the estimates, including a $9.3-billion boost for defence announced earlier this month. That amount includes $2-billion in military support for Ukraine, which Mr. Carney highlighted Tuesday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Alta.
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During a Monday evening appearance before the Senate committee on national finance, Mr. Giroux said he'll be releasing an update of his own on Thursday and provided a few hints as to what the report will say.
Mr. Giroux pointed to the Liberal campaign platform as a guide, which projected a $62.3-billion deficit for the current fiscal year that began April 1. Since then, Mr. Carney has announced the major boost to defence spending to meet NATO's 2-per-cent military expenditure target.
'We'll certainly be between $60-billion and $70-billion in the absence of spending cuts elsewhere,' Mr. Giroux said, without providing specific figures that will be announced Thursday.
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Prior to the federal election campaign, the PBO released a 'baseline' report showing where Ottawa's bottom line stood prior to any new campaign pledges. That report said the deficit for 2024-25 was on pace to hit $50.3-billion, while the 2025-26 deficit at that time was projected to be $46.8-billion.
Mr. Giroux said the lack of a budget makes it challenging for MPs and senators to review the government's spending requests outlined in the estimates.
'The risk is that you as legislators have to put even more faith in the government than you would otherwise have to do if you had a budget,' he said, adding that a budget provides parliamentarians with the broader picture of Ottawa's fiscal plans.
'Whereas the only thing you have to make that judgment is the Speech from the Throne, which was vague on details, to say the least. So, it's very difficult for you as legislators to decide what makes sense and what is less solid,' he said.
Mr. Giroux said that without a budget it is not clear how the government intends to fit the recently announced boost in defence spending into its overall plans.
For context, he said the government spends about $60-billion each year on personnel. Financing the $9.3-billion defence spending through internal savings would mean a reduction of about 15 per cent to the public service, he said.
On top of that, Mr. Giroux noted that the Liberals are suggesting they will make significant new investments to boost certain segments of the economy.
'That's a lot of constraints,' he said. 'Something's got to give.'