Nvidia earnings topped forecasts by 10% over past 2 years, double the S&P 500 average
Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings and revenue beat Wall Street's expectations nearly every quarter over the past two years.
Over the past eight quarters, Nvidia's earnings per share exceeded Wall Street's projections by an average of 9.8%. Over that same time frame, Nvidia's quarterly revenue beat the Street by an average of 8.9%.
Meanwhile, S&P 500 companies reported earnings and sales roughly 5% and 1.3% above Wall Street's expectations in that time frame, according to Bloomberg data.
Only once in that period — during the second quarter of its fiscal year 2025 — did Nvidia's earnings miss forecasts. Its revenue has exceeded forecasts during each of the past eight quarters.
Stifel analyst Ruben Roy and Bank of America's Vivek Arya expect that Nvidia's April quarter earnings results — its fiscal 2026 first quarter — will show a "modest" beat, coming in above Wall Street's projections as they expect demand for the company's Hopper and Blackwell chips will outweigh potential impacts from a newly enacted ban on exports of its H20 chips to China.
Wall Street analysts estimate that Nvidia will report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.88 on revenue of $43.3 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus data. The chipmaker reported adjusted EPS of $0.61 on revenue of $26 billion in the same period last year, Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley reported.
"We expect largely inline results and outlook despite the negative top-line impact related to recently disclosed H20 restrictions," Stifel analyst Ruben Roy wrote in a May 22 note to investors, citing "demand for H200, coupled with initial GB200 ramps."
Nvidia's H200 chips are its second-generation Hopper graphics processing units (GPUs), and its GB200 servers contain 72 of its Blackwell GPUs.
In February, Nvidia reported earnings and revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter that surpassed Wall Street's expectations as the chipmaker officially announced that it had achieved full-scale production of its latest Blackwell GPUs and generated $11 billion during the period from the latest AI chips.
Nvidia stock fell 8.5% following its fourth quarter report, however, as its outlook for the first quarter gross margin came in lower than estimates. Options traders tracked by Bloomberg forecast shares could rise or fall as much as 7.4% following Nvidia's results Wednesday after the bell.
Nvidia stock has struggled in 2025. Shares plunged in January when a new cheap AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek prompted demand concerns for its AI chips, and again in April as Trump's trade war rocked the stock market.
The stock rose over 3% on Tuesday and traded flat on Wednesday ahead of the chipmaker's earnings report.
Laura Bratton is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Bluesky @laurabratton.bsky.social. Email her at laura.bratton@yahooinc.com.
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