Crisis for SMMEs — most of SA's small businesses in distress as economic pressures mount
More than half of small businesses in our country are in decline or in distress, the Absa/SACCI Small Business Growth Index (SBGI) has found.
The index shows that 52.8% of small, medium and micro enterprises (SMMEs or SMEs) are in a state of contraction, difficulty, or risk of closure, with nearly one in 10 facing potential closure.
'You have to have a data set that enables you to create a level of high quality decision making, so that when you move into the policy space, you can move with a level of confidence,' Alan Mukoki, the SACCI CEO, said at the launch of the index.
The Small Business Growth Index is a joint effort by Absa, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI), and Unisa's Bureau of Market Research (BMR). Based on a survey conducted between April and May 2025, it serves as a 'real-time barometer' for policymakers, offering insights into small business conditions, challenges and growth prospects.
Unmade by the market
To understand the daily realities behind the index, Daily Maverick spoke to Made by Mosaic, a small enterprise employing foster parents to produce handmade leather goods.
The business also ran a bakery that had to shut down in 2022, costing seven jobs.
'Made by Mosaic, just like many other small businesses, is greatly affected by rising costs, cheap knockoffs from China etcetera. Just because we have a beautiful story, serve and uplift our community and work with moms taking care of orphans, it doesn't exempt us from the effects of a very unfavourable business environment,' said manager Terry Niemack.
The organisation continues to tread carefully, trying to rehire and retrain while managing limited resources.
'We are down to the bare minimum,' Niemack said. 'We are slowly starting to look at hiring more moms we can train, but it's a slow process and a fine line of balancing resources.'
The weight of rising costs
The Small Business Growth Index found that transport and fuel costs delivered the hardest blow, with more than 66% of SMMEs reporting increases.
According to Professor Paul Kibuuka, head of the economic research division at the BMR, these cost pressures are severe and widespread across sectors.
Small businesses have faced significant cost increases across all major categories, with transport and utilities seeing the steepest hikes, putting a strain on margins.
More than 55% of SMMEs said they might not make another year without relief. To stay afloat, more than three-quarters plan to hike prices in the next six months.
Cash flow crisis and debt dilemmas
A total of 60% reported weak or critical cash flow, and only 2.8% described it as strong. Almost one in five flagged their current debt levels as 'unmanageable or very concerning'.
Even more alarming: 40.5% don't use any formal finance instruments, relying instead on personal savings or informal networks.
'We found that businesses that are startups or that are in the early stages of their business, banks like ourselves really struggle to assist them and we find that in most cases we don't have the tools,' said Ronnie Mbatsane, the managing executive of SME business at Absa.
More than half of small businesses surveyed can only survive another year or less if cost pressures continue without external support.
Niemack echoed this, saying Made by Mosaic ticked every box for government funding but had still been unable to secure any.
This speaks to a broader systemic failure. The index found that the top government intervention requested by SMMEs was easy access to affordable finance and grants, cited by 54.3%, along with reduced bureaucracy and red tape.
What this means for you
Fewer small businesses mean fewer local job opportunities.
Rising costs for SMMEs will lead to higher prices.
If small businesses close, community services like local bakeries, salons and spaza shops could disappear.
Limited access to finance means fewer entrepreneurs can grow or start new businesses.
A struggling SMME sector slows down overall economic growth, affecting everyone's financial outlook.
A growing skills gap
On the skills front, the index revealed more deficiencies. Fewer than 10% of SMMEs feel confident in their cyber security and nearly 28% face vacancies they can't fill due to a lack of skilled candidates.
Worse still, 44.3% don't even know where to access skills development programmes.
Formal support is barely visible. Only 14-17% of SMMEs consult local government, trade bodies, or incubators. Most rely on the advice of friends and family. When support is targeted and accessible, it makes a difference.
Niemack said that help with access to trade exhibitions like SARCDA (The South African Retail, Gift, Toy, Décor, and Design Trade Exhibition) and Decorex had been invaluable to them.
'Support from the government or the private sector in the form of largely reduced rentals in malls where small businesses would have access to the public on a daily basis would help in a very big way,' she added.
Geopolitics and policy shocks
External shocks are also adding pressure. The US has imposed 30% tariffs on South African exports, excluding a range of mining exports.
Meanwhile, China is opening its doors to African goods with zero tariffs for 53 countries.
Domestically, the Reserve Bank cut rates by 25 basis points last week, but tightened the inflation target from a range of 3-6% to a hard 3%.
'The revised target makes it unlikely that we'll see any more interest rate cuts this year, meaning borrowing will remain more expensive than many households and businesses might have hoped,' said Miguel da Silva, executive of business banking at TymeBank.
All eyes now turn to StatsSA's inflation data, due on Wednesday, 20 August 2025, which could guide cost and pricing decisions for businesses in the months ahead.
A glimmer of hope
Despite the bleak outlook, some indicators hint at cautious optimism. The S&P Global SA PMI for May climbed to 50.8 from 50.0 in April. And in a rare show of unity, the Government of National Unity passed the 2025 national Budget (after its third iteration).
The Small Business Growth Index recorded that more small businesses expect to maintain their performance next year than contract.
A total of 95% plan to grow sales and 77% want to expand online.
'Our small businesses are charged the same VAT as if they're big businesses,' Mbatsane said, highlighting one of the mismatches between policy design and the realities of the small business sector. DM
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