College Football 2025: More NIL Nonsense?

Forbes

a day ago

Welcome to the new college math: A college football player's name, image, likeness dollar value is based on his marketability as much or more than his performance.
Arch Manning going into the 2025-26 football season has the highest NIL valuation in college football at $6.8 million according to Sports Illustrated. More than $2 million higher than the next closest player. He has yet to start a game for Texas.
The Current State of College Football: The Wild West
Three issues have turned college football into the wild west entering the 2025 season:
1. The NCAA Transfer Portal
2. The Player Opt-Out Option
3. NIL Valuations
The main focus of this article will be around issue 3. NIL Valuations but I want to touch briefly on issues 1 and 2 first.
The NCAA Transfer Portal
Today coaches have to not only manage the year-round recruitment of high school players; They must be constantly vigilant of their own rosters and players transferring. Players can transfer currently during two windows a year: December 9-28 and April 16-25. Think about it. You are a head coach. Your team works hard and has a good season and gets rewarded with a bowl game in December or January. Then while preparing for the bowl game you unexpectedly lose a key player to the December portal!
Starting Georgia Cornerback Julian Humphrey is Exhibit A but just one of many. Last December Humphrey committed to Texas A&M after starting all 10 games for Georgia during 2024. I would presume Head Coach Kirby Smart did not see that one coming.
The Player Opt-Out Option
It used to be more rare but today many key players on college teams are opting out of bowl games or even entire seasons. Why? To avoid possible career threatening injuries. For upperclassmen to further prepare for the NFL draft. Understandable on one level, yes. But for a team sport like football where players depend on one another like soldiers in a foxhole during war, it can demoralize teammates. Opt-outs can undermine the collective commitment to team goals, particularly in high-stakes games.
In 2024 Michigan Football All-American defensive tackle Mason Graham opted out of the Wolverines' upcoming bowl game, and skipped his senior year of eligibility to declare for the 2025 NFL draft. Graham was already a two-time all Big 10 player and second-team All-American as a junior. 'Yes Mason has declared and will sit out of the bowl game,' his agent Ryan Matha said in a text message in December 2024. I am sure Head Coach Sherrone Moore took the high road wishing Graham well and defending his right to do what was in his best interests–while now scrambling to prepare for a bowl game without his best defensive lineman. Again Graham was just one of many examples in 2024.
NIL Valuations
I am not against college athletes getting paid based upon the perceived commercial value of their name or image or likeness. It is wrong for an institution or a retailer to profit off an athlete's name and keep 100% of the profits generated by merchandise, ticket sales, etc., But too many student-athletes are making decisions more on potential NIL earnings and less on athletic development and academic fit.
Secondly the disparities in earning potential among teammates can create resentment and fracture team unity. Individual stars can overshadow team achievments. In the end NIL makes college football a more transactional relationship between a player and a program/university.
Lastly as was stated at the beginning of this story, NIL rewards an athlete as much or more for their marketability as their performance. NIL reflects as much as anything an athletes' ability to 'Sell snow to Eskimos.' No value judgements here–just calling it the way I see it.
Shedeur Sanders Versus Jeremiah Smith
Two college football stars from the 2024 season best illustrate this dichotomy between marketability and performance: Shedeur Sanders, quarterback of the Colorado Buffalo's and Jeremiah Smith, wide receiver for the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Shedeur Sanders was the top NIL earner for the 2024-25 season. By the end of the season his NIL value was estimated at $6.5 million. He signed endorsement deals with brands like Nike, Gatorade, Beats by Dre, Google, and the 5430 Alliance. Many of those deals are likely to follow him into the NFL.
In the meantime, what did Sanders accomplish on the football field for the Buffs? Make no mistake, he was truly good. In just two seasons with the Buffs, he threw for 7,364 yards with 64 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He led his team to a four-way tie for first in the Big 12 only to lose to BYU in a bowl game 36-14. He was named the Big 12 Conference offensive player of the year as he helped turn the Buffaloes back into a winning football program. He set a program record for touchdown passes on the season with 37, and his 74% completion rate was both a program and FBS record for a single season. And he finished 8th in Heisman trophy voting.
However he would fall to the fifth round in the 2025 NFL draft. The Cleveland Browns took him No. 144 overall. The NFL uses a slotting system for rookie salaries, based on where a player is selected. Sanders' pick, No. 144 overall, is expected to get a four-year deal worth $4.6 million. Sanders' NIL value had little to do then with his NFL draft value which is a more purely performative-based metric.
Jeremiah Smith on the other hand.had an NIL valuation at the end of the 2024 season of $4.2 million ($2.3 million less than Sanders). And regardless of position or age, many around college football would argue today that Ohio State's true sophomore wide receiver is the best player in the sport.
The former number-one recruit in the class of 2024 more than lived up to the billing, as he played a key role in the Buckeyes winning the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff.
In his 2024 season with Ohio State, Jeremiah Smith had a remarkable freshman campaign, recording 76 receptions for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns. His 1,315 receiving yards ranked fourth in single-season history for Ohio State, and he became the first Buckeye freshman to surpass 1,000 receiving yards. He also led the team in receptions (76), receiving yards (1,315), and receiving touchdowns (15).
In the end Smith was arguably a better performer at his position and a more crucial piece of the puzzle in the Buckeye's national championship run in 2024 than Sanders as quarterback of a 9-4 Colorado Team that lost their bowl game. Yet Sanders made millions more in NIL money.
College football desperately needs some new guard rails put in place to manage all these new capitalist trends and forces. I believe it can and must happen. But for now, welcome to the wild west.