Is now the right time to buy or sell a home in the Triangle? What experts say.

Yahoo

03-05-2025

Homebuyers rarely back out of deals, says Tana Widdows, a broker in Chapel Hill.
That's especially true in states like North Carolina, where buyers pay nonrefundable due-diligence fees directly to the seller — typically, the amount ranges from 3% to 5% of the buyer's offer.
But in the last three weeks alone, Widdows' small Compass team, including 12 agents at Terra Nova real estate services, saw three homes fall out of contract. 'Deals are falling apart more often,' she said.
It's a sign of the growing volatility in the Triangle housing market this spring.
The Trump administration's sweeping new round of tariffs, announced in April, has sparked market uncertainty, rattling buyers, sellers and builders alike. It's also threatened to increase the cost of building a new home, push home prices up and depress supply at a time when the market is already out of reach for many. There's also the uncertainty caused by hasty and deep budget cuts, which have prompted layoffs at government agencies, research companies and universities.
Here's what Triangle buyers and sellers need to know.
Despite the economic uncertainty, high housing costs and recession fears, prices remain steady in most Triangle submarkets.
Experts say that's largely due to a long-running housing shortage, which has kept a floor on prices.
In Raleigh, the median sale price (the mid-point where half cost less and half cost more) was $438,500 in February 2025, according to Redfin. That's up 14.8% since last year.
But would-be buyers are 'ultra cautious' and staying on the sidelines, flattening sales, Redfin says.
On average, homes in Raleigh sold after 45 days on the market compared to 23 days last year. Some 294 homes sold in February this year, down from 383 last year.
On the plus side: Sellers are more willing to cut prices, and the gap between listing price and sale price is narrowing. In Raleigh, the sale-to-list price was 98.7%. That's a .55 percentage-point drop year over year.
In Durham, the median sale price was $420,000, up 5%, Redfin found. On average, homes in Durham sold after 44 days on the market compared to 20 days last year; 203 homes sold in February this year, down from 218 last year.
The sale-to-list price was 98.6%. That's a 1.1 percentage-point drop year over year.
'Trying to time the market is a gamble,' Widdows said. Her advice: 'Sell when the timing is right for you. Well-presented homes in desirable neighborhoods — when priced correctly — are still getting multiple offers.'
Case in point: A home at 1011 Oxbow Crossing in Chapel Hill was listed at $1.185 million in March and sold for $1.25 million with three offers.
Buyers also gain options as inventory climbs again.
'Back in 2023, the number of houses for sale was pathetic, but now it's gone up,' said Tim Burrell, a Raleigh-based Realtor with RE/MAX United.
In Raleigh, active inventory is up 52.2% year over year in March, according to Doorify MLS, a Cary-based listing service.
In Durham, it's up 52.3%, it found.
'Buyers are getting more negotiating power, and sellers are getting a little less,' Burrell said.
The U.S. has imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, though President Donald Trump has hinted at a possible reduction. A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners is also in effect, but China remains an exception.
Trump says the tariffs are part of a broader strategy to address trade imbalances, but the construction industry is worried.
Key materials for new construction — lumber, drywall, steel and aluminum — could be substantially more expensive soon. And consumers will likely bear the costs, they say.
'In effect, the tariffs act as a tax on American builders, home buyers and consumers,' said Alex Strong, a senior director at the National Association of Home Builders, a trade association that opposes tariffs.
The association estimates that proposed new tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico could raise the cost of imported construction materials by 'up to $4 billion, depending on the specific rates.'
In the Triangle, builders say the tariffs could substantially impact their ability to deliver new single-family and multifamily projects. It could also translate into higher home prices.
'The bottom line is that house prices will be more expensive because of tariffs,' said Eric Maribojoc, a UNC professor who focuses on affordable housing. 'We're not seeing it yet, but we have to be prepared for that. There's just no way around it.'
The average rate on a standard, 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.76% in the week ending May 1, down from 6.81% a week earlier, mortgage financing provider Freddie Mac said Thursday.
But forces are pushing mortgage rates in different directions, and rates are more unpredictable right now than at any point in the past few years, said Redfin economist Chen Zhao.
At one end, slower economic growth, higher recession odds and a sell-off in the stock market would push bonds to rally, causing mortgage rates to fall, she said. At the other, lingering higher inflation could push mortgage rates higher.
'Whether rates fall or rise depends on whether this bout of inflation is temporary,' Zhao said.
If rates come down significantly post purchase, buyers can refinance, experts point out. 'Float down' options, post lock-in, are among some of their options.
April Russell, a Raleigh-based mortgage loan officer with New American Funding, said buyers should shop around more than usual for a better mortgage rate.
'Getting pre-approved for a mortgage, working with a reputable loan officer, staying informed and managing a budget are all tips that I share with my customers,' she said.
Keep up with the latest Triangle real estate news by subscribing to On the Market, The News & Observer's free weekly real estate newsletter. Look for it in your inbox every Thursday morning. Sign up here.