Tesla Faces Harsh Q2 Outlook, Analyst Calls for Aggressive Short
GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson is sounding the alarm on Tesla once again. In a new note to investors, Johnson urges an 'aggressive short' on the stock through the second quarter of 2025. His warning centers on what he says is a record-breaking gap between Wall Street's delivery expectations and what he believes Tesla will actually achieve.
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Johnson estimates Tesla will deliver around 342,700 vehicles in Q2, nearly 96,000 units fewer than current consensus estimates. He calls this the largest forecast discrepancy he's ever seen, suggesting the stock is set for a serious correction once expectations are revised downward.
GLJ Research maintains a Sell rating on Tesla and a strikingly bearish price target of $24.86, far below Tesla's recent share price of $242 (as of writing). Johnson argues that falling deliveries, intense global competition, and declining brand loyalty put pressure on the company. He also says the full impact of CEO Elon Musk's damaged public image won't be fully felt until this quarter.
Musk's Politics Becoming a Stock Risk
Analysts are growing concerned about Elon Musk's increasing political involvement, which some believe is becoming a business liability. In February, Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro cut his Tesla price target from $492 to $474 and cited Musk's political activity as a key reason. Gengaro noted that Tesla's net favorability rating fell to just 3%, near an all-time low, and that purchase interest has dropped, especially in key U.S. and European markets.
Musk's strong support for former President Trump, combined with controversial public comments, has led to consumer backlash, with some former fans now calling for boycotts. While some analysts remain optimistic about Tesla's long-term tech potential, more are now watching how closely the company's brand and stock are tied to its outspoken CEO.
Is Tesla a Buy, Sell, or a Hold?
Tesla stock continues to fluctuate and is considered a Hold, based on 39 analysts' ratings. The average price target for TSLA stock is $298.38, suggesting a 23.18% upside potential.
See more TSLA analyst ratings
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Winnipeg Free Press
2 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Russia skirts Western sanctions to ramp up its military footprint in Africa
DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Even as it pounds Ukraine, Russia is expanding its military footprint in Africa, delivering sophisticated weaponry to sub-Saharan conflict zones where a Kremlin-controlled armed force is on the rise. Skirting sanctions imposed by Western nations, Moscow is using cargo ships to send tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and other high-value equipment to West Africa, The Associated Press has found. Relying on satellite imagery and radio signals, AP tracked a convoy of Russian-flagged cargo ships as they made a nearly one-month journey from the Baltic Sea. The ships carried howitzers, radio jamming equipment and other military hardware, according to military officials in Europe who closely monitored them. The deliveries could strengthen Russia's fledgling Africa Corps as Moscow competes with the United States, Europe and China for greater influence across the continent. The two-year-old Africa Corps, which has links to a covert branch of Russia's army, is ascendant at a time when U.S. and European troops have been withdrawing from the region, forced out by sub-Saharan nations turning to Russia for security. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have been battling fighters linked with al-Qaida and the Islamic State group for more than a decade. At first, mercenary groups with an arms-length relationship to the Kremlin entered the fray in Africa. But increasingly, Russia is deploying its military might, and intelligence services, more directly. 'We intend to expand our cooperation with African countries in all spheres, with an emphasis on economic cooperation and investments,' Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. 'This cooperation includes sensitive areas linked to defense and security.' From the ports, Russian weapons are trucked to Mali Russia's 8,800-ton Baltic Leader and 5,800-ton Patria are among hundreds of ships that Western nations have sanctioned to choke off resources for Russia's war in Ukraine. The ships docked and unloaded in Conakry, Guinea, in late May, AP satellite images showed. Other ships made deliveries to the same port in January. They delivered tanks, armored vehicles and other hardware that was then trucked overland to neighboring Mali, according to European military officials and a Malian blogger's video of the long convoy. The military officials spoke to AP about Russian operations on condition of anonymity. The AP verified the blogger's video, geolocating it to the RN5 highway leading into Bamako, the Malian capital. After the latest delivery in Conakry, trucks carrying Russian-made armored vehicles, howitzers and other equipment were again spotted on the overland route to Mali. Malian broadcaster ORTM confirmed that the West African nation's army took delivery of new military equipment. AP analysis of its video and images filmed by the Malian blogger in the same spot as the January delivery identified a broad array of Russian-made hardware, including 152 mm artillery guns and other smaller canons. AP also identified a wheeled, BTR-80 armored troop carrier with radio-jamming equipment, as well as Spartak armored vehicles and other armored carriers, some mounted with guns. The shipment also included at least two semi-inflatable small boats, one with a Russian flag painted on its hull, as well as tanker trucks, some marked 'inflammable' in Russian on their sides. The military officials who spoke to AP said they believe Russia has earmarked the most potent equipment — notably the artillery and jamming equipment — for its Africa Corps, not Malian armed forces. Africa Corps appears to have been given air power, too, with satellites spotting at least one Su-24 fighter-bomber at a Bamako air base in recent months. Moscow's notorious secret unit For years, French forces supported counterinsurgency operations in Mali and neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. But France pulled out its troops after coups in Mali in 2020 and 2021, in Burkina Faso in 2022 and Niger in 2023. Russian mercenaries stepped into the vacuum. Wagner Group, the most notable, deployed to Sudan in 2017 and expanded to other African countries, often in exchange for mining concessions. It earned a reputation for brutality, accused by Western countries and U.N. experts of human rights abuses, including in Central African Republic, Libya and Mali. Of 33 African countries in which Russian military contractors were active, the majority were Wagner-controlled, according to U.S. government-sponsored research by RAND. But after Wagner forces mutinied in Russia in 2023 and their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was killed two months later in a suspicious plane crash, Moscow tightened its grip. Russian military operations in Africa were restructured, with the Kremlin taking greater control through Africa Corps. It is overseen by the commander of Unit 29155, one of the most notorious branches of Russia's shadowy GRU military intelligence service, according to the European Union. Unit 29155 has been accused of covertly attacking Western interests for years, including through sabotage and assassination attempts. The EU in December targeted Unit 29155 Maj. Gen. Andrey Averyanov with sanctions, alleging that he is in charge of Africa Corps operations. 'In many African countries, Russian forces provide security to military juntas that have overthrown legitimate democratic governments, gravely worsening the stability, security and democracy of the countries,' the EU sanctions ruling said. These operations are financed by exploiting the continent's natural resources, the ruling added. The Russian Ministry of Defense didn't immediately respond to questions about Averyanov's role in Africa Corps. Africa Corps recruitment Researchers and military officials say the flow of weapons from Russia appears to be speeding Africa Corps' ascendancy over Wagner, helping it win over mercenaries that have remained loyal to the group. Africa Corps is also is recruiting in Russia, offering payments of up to 2.1 million rubles ($26,500), and even plots of land, for signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense, plus more on deployment. Within days of the latest equipment delivery, Wagner announced its withdrawal from Mali, declaring 'mission accomplished' in a Telegram post. Africa Corps said in a separate post that it would remain. The changeover from Wagner to Africa Corps in Mali could be a forerunner for other similar transitions elsewhere on the continent, said Julia Stanyard, a researcher of Russian mercenary activity in Africa. 'Bringing in this sort of brand-new sophisticated weaponry, and new armored vehicles and that sort of thing, is quite a bit of a shift,' said Stanyard, of the Switzerland-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. Armed groups in Mali have inflicted heavy losses on Malian troops and Russian mercenaries. The al-Qaida linked group JNIM killed dozens of soldiers in an attack this month on a military base. Insurgents also killed dozens of Wagner mercenaries in northern Mali last July. Some of the latest hardware could have been shipped over specifically in response to such attacks, military officials said. They said the jamming equipment, for example, could help defend against booby traps detonated using phone signals. Russian escort's red flags The latest convoy attracted attention because a Russian Navy warship, the Boykiy, escorted the ships after they set off in April from Russia's Kaliningrad region on the Baltic. Last October, in what's considered a hostile act, the Boykiy's radar systems locked onto a French Navy maritime surveillance plane on patrol against suspected Russian efforts to sabotage underwater cables, according to military officials. The convoy included a third sanctioned Russian cargo ship, the Siyanie Severa. It continued onward as Baltic Leader and Patria unloaded in Conakry, docking in Bata, Equatorial Guinea. Satellite imagery from May 29 shows trucks lined up on the dock as the ship unloaded. The AP could not verify whether the cargo included weapons or the ultimate destination for the shipment, though Wagner has maintained a strong presence in the nearby Central African Republic. ___ Leicester reported from Paris and Biesecker from Washington. Beatrice Dupuy and Rachel Leathe in New York contributed.
Winnipeg Free Press
2 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Five things to know about Canada's plan to meet the NATO defence spending target
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Mark Carney is promising that Canada will quickly boost its defence spending to hit the NATO member target of two per cent of national GDP this year. Canada has long promised to meet the target but has never had a detailed plan to get there. The announcement comes as NATO allies prepare for talks on raising the spending target to five per cent at the annual summit this month. Here's what you need to know about the announcement. 1. What is the NATO spending target? All NATO allies, Canada included, committed to spending the equivalent of two per cent of their GDP on defence in 2006. In 2014, NATO leaders agreed formally that countries that were not meeting the target must move toward it within a decade. After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, allies agreed at the 2023 NATO summit to make two per cent the minimum spending target. Many European countries have rapidly scaled up their defence spending in response to Russia's war on Ukraine. As of this year, 22 of the 32 NATO member states are spending at least two per cent of their national GDP on defence. Canada is not among them. A leaked Pentagon document obtained by The Washington Post in 2023 quoted then-prime minister Justin Trudeau telling NATO officials that Canada would not meet the two per cent target. Under pressure from allies, the Trudeau government later promised to hit the two per cent benchmark by 2032. In January, then-defence minister Bill Blair told reporters he was trying to speed up that timeline to 2027. 2. Why is the target changing? At this year's NATO leaders' summit in The Hague, allies will discuss a proposal to boost the spending target to five per cent of GDP. That's expected to be broken down into two parts — 3.5 per cent for what NATO calls core defence spending and another 1.5 per cent for a broader category of defence and security-related spending. 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Carney has said Canada wants to join ReArm Europe, an 800 billion-euro plan to beef up the defence of EU countries. Government officials said Monday that $2.1 billion could help Canada enter joint procurements or multilateral initiatives with other countries. 5. What is happening with the Coast Guard? The government is planning to include $2.5 billion it spends on the Canadian Coast Guard in its NATO spending this year — about 60 per cent of the agency's total budget. The Coast Guard will remain part of the Department of Fisheries and Oceans. It's responsible for ensuring the safety of people in Canadian waters, carrying out search-and-rescue operations and conducting research, and has a fleet of icebreakers. The Coast Guard also has a mandate to 'ensure Canada's sovereignty and security by establishing a strong federal presence in our waters,' according to the Government of Canada. Government officials said there is no plan to arm the Coast Guard or its members. They say its inclusion in Canada's overall defence and security strategy reflects its role in providing what they call maritime domain awareness. The intent, officials told reporters, is to improve inter-service communication, particularly in the Arctic region. The increased co-operation could involve sending military members on Coast Guard trips, for example. The government said it's boosting the Coast Guard budget by $100 million. — With files from Kyle Duggan and The Associated Press This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 9, 2025.
Globe and Mail
5 hours ago
- Globe and Mail
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Tesla's installed base of vehicles gives it significant advantages over Waymo and others. Tesla is not your average speculative growth stock; it holds significant advantages over typical growth stocks. Why robotaxis matter and why Tesla isn't your average growth stock The robotaxi concept and the FSD that powers it are potentially a huge earnings driver for Tesla. One of Tesla's most vocal and visible supporters, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest, which expected a valuation of $2,600 per share for Tesla in 2029, relies on a model that prescribes 88% of the company's value from robotaxis, compared to just 9% from EVs. The opportunity to earn recurring revenue from selling unsupervised FSD subscriptions to Tesla owners wanting to use their vehicles as robotaxis is massive, as is the potential to generate recurring revenue on a ride-per-mile basis from robotaxis. Moreover, Tesla plans to mass-produce its dedicated robotaxi vehicle, Cybercab, next year. 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