Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction: MLB picks, best bets for AL East battle Monday
Update: New odds on the New York Mayoral race. Zohran Mamdani is 2-1,
Andrew Cuomo is 4-1, Mayor Eric Adams is 5-1, and Curtis Sliwa is 10-1. However, Cuomo is the runaway favorite to end up on the 'Kiss-Cam' at a Coldplay concert.
No time for kissing on the jumbotron at the Rogers Centre in Toronto; first place is on the line.
The Yankees begin a three-game set with the Blue Jays. The Yanks' Carlos Rodón allowed just four hits in eight shutout innings at the Cubs prior to the break.
The Jays' Kevin Gausman has allowed seven runs over his past 15 ⅔ innings. Play $50 on the Yankees (-115, bet365).
The Blue Jays counter with Kevin Gasuman on Monday.
AP
Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting
This one was over before you could say,' Here's lookin' at you, kid.'
Xander Bogaerts launched a grand salami before an out was recorded.
Elias Diaz added a two-run homer.
Nick Pivetta pitched six innings to pick up his 10th win, and the Padres zapped the Nats
8-1.
Winner! Down -203 andyashbys.
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The one and only Stitches has been handicapping baseball, daily, for the Post since 2019. Miraculously, he has finished in the black twice. But wait there's more. He showed his versatility by winning the Post's NFL Best Bet crown last year.
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New York Times
37 minutes ago
- New York Times
Post trade deadline, what team has the best bullpen in baseball?
Deciding how good a player really is one of those enterprises that happens equally often in barrooms and front offices, with just the same amount of agreement by all involved. But when it comes to bullpens, it's even more difficult to pin down a player's true talent. Relievers give us the smallest bits of production by which we could judge them, and yet those looks come in moments that are incredibly important to the outcome of the game. Advertisement For example, ask Yankees fans right now, and you might not get the sense that their team's bullpen is any good. And yeah, going into Tuesday's games, Yankee relievers had an ERA over five and were the second-worst unit in baseball over the last seven days. Woof. That can't really be the right way to figure this out, though. 'What have you done for me lately?' is a fine question for a fan to ask, particularly when they are reacting to a poor run of play, but the Angels 'pen is not twice as good as the Yankees 'pen simply because they have been that good over the last seven days. Looking backwards has its limits, but let's at least acknowledge that some of these bullpens have changed a ton since the trade deadline, and that seven days is not enough data to determine which bullpens are the best. Here are three bullpens that are candidates for the best in baseball, with their five best relievers listed, and their full-season numbers. These 'pens stocked up at the deadline and they are loaded when you look at them this way. First, let's start with the Yankees. Four guys who were primary closers for their teams in the past calendar year, two of whom sit in the high-90s with their fastballs, and pretty much all of them have nasty stuff. Of course, their collective ERA would look a lot better if it wasn't dragged down by a 5 in the Devin Williams' column, so it's always worth wondering what's happened to the Yankees' big offseason acquisition. It's possible the answer is not much — his stuff, command and fastball velocities are all in-line with his norms, and those are generally predictive. But with a season this bad it's probably worth pointing out that he's throwing the changeup as slowly as he's ever thrown it, and with more drop than ever, and it's being hit harder than ever. Maybe throwing that thing harder is the answer. Advertisement You can look to David Bednar to see how a small problem can rob a full season from a reliever and yet not change their career trajectory too much. Bednar didn't have a great Yankees debut, but he's a big stuff pitcher who made a couple small adjustments to get his curveball command back. He can be a great closer for them, but he's given up more homers away from Pittsburgh so far in his career and if that becomes an issue, Camilo Doval has the kind of stuff that will stay in the ballpark (though he might give up more hits). Tim Hill's peripherals don't scream sustainability, but he's so funky that he's kind of the Tyler Rogers of this crew. And Luke Weaver's stuff is down, but with a changeup like he has, he can get lefties out almost easier than righties. This is a good bullpen, even if it does have some warts. Now, let's move cross-town to the Mets. They had one of the best closers in the game and then they added one of the other best closers in the game in Ryan Helsley, and then they added the funkiest submariner in baseball in Tyler Rogers. According to the Stuff+ leaderboard, which looks at the physical characteristics of a pitch, they added two of the three best relievers in baseball at the deadline. Is there a weakness? Maybe. This group has a 95 Location+, meaning they have worse-than-average command, even among the reliever population. Edwin Díaz can get a wild hair up his nose, Helsley has the odd struggle with the strike zone, and Gregory Soto has improved over the years, but still has a mediocre walk rate. But if a team takes too many pitches against the Mets, they might just bring in Rogers, who has the best walk rate among qualified relievers in baseball this year. This a great 'pen with lots of different looks, which seems important come playoff time. The Padres made arguably the biggest deadline splash in trading for Mason Miller. Let's now dive into their 'pen. They took the No. 1 reliever in terms of 100+ mph fastballs and added him to a 'pen with the 10th-place guy, so you know this 'pen will do well by stuff metrics. They have the highest strikeout rate of these three bullpens, and the second-lowest walk rate, and strikeout-minus-walk rate is one of the best predictors of future pitching success. Advertisement Is there anything wrong with Miller? While Williams with the Yankees has a seen a large downturn in strikeout rate, Miller is still striking out nearly 40 percent of the batters he sees, with more velocity this year than last though, and a better shape on his fastball. His inflated ERA compared to last year might carry a relatively simple explanation: ERA is not predictive, and he's doing everything else well, and if there's anything he can do to be better, it's to cut down on waste fastballs. He's nearly doubled his rate from last year, and those pitches are easy to take. Well, relatively easy to take. He still sits 101 mph. Add him to what might have been the best bullpen in baseball before the deadline, and you've got your presumptive answer on the titular question. But hold on. We're still looking backwards, to some degree — we are trying to look backwards at predictive numbers, but we are still looking backwards. The best way to sum up the true talent of a player is actually to look at their projections and look forward. After all, if we're asking how good a player is right now we are really asking how good he'll be the next time out. And projections weigh all the different stats we are looking at and try to make the best sense of them in terms of weighing the most predictive elements of their stat lines, so that's another reason to use them. Using the OOPSY projections on FanGraphs that incorporate all the stats we've seen above, and only for the top five relievers, so that we compare only the 'A' bullpens, here are the best bullpens in baseball going forward, sorted by ERA. Gotta love a good surprise result. The Mariners have elite relievers in Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash, some underrated ones in Gabe Speier and Caleb Ferguson, but that's only part of why the end up ranked first by projected ERA. Of course some part of it is the park, as they play in the No. 1 pitchers' park in baseball, according to Statcast park factors. Wins Above Replacement has its flaws, particularly for pitchers, but it does account for this sort of thing. So once you consider park factors and look at the projected WAR category, you're probably circling the Mets or Padres for the best bullpen in baseball despite this ranking by projected ERA. And fans in Philadelphia (1.3 projected WAR) and Houston (1.2) can enter the chat if they'd like. But all this is in the end is a fun way to waste time until the next game. Then we'll find out which bullpen really shuts them down, and which one melts down and loses the game. And then we can start arguing all over again. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
Boston Globe
3 hours ago
- Boston Globe
Here in 2025, and after four World Series titles, it's time to name our All-Quarter-Century Red Sox team
Related : As further circumstantial evidence that time seems to be accelerating, the century already is a quarter complete — more than that if you count 2000 rather than 2001 as its start, which we do here, since that's when we celebrated the century's turn while exhaling about Y2K. Advertisement With that it mind, it seemed a fitting time to put together our All-Quarter-Century Red Sox team. A few rules : We used Wins Above Replacement as a major factor, but not always the deciding factor, since sentiment and nostalgia must be at play here. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Also, our roster is 25 players, with everyone in their appropriate role. You'll see what that means. Many of the choices were easy. A couple are worthy of serious debate. One I left up to you. And every player selected won a World Series with the Red Sox. Sure couldn't have said that last century. The squad: Catcher: Jason Varitek Who else? The stoic captain of the 2004 and 2007 champs is the only player ever to catch four no-hitters, and few Red Sox have ever had a higher approval rating. From 2000 until his retirement after the 2011 season, he provided 22.3 Wins Above Replacement, more than three times the Red Sox' second-most productive catcher of this century, Christian Vazquez (6.9 WAR). Also, Varitek is the all-time leader in the wildly undervalued sabermetric stat MARETM — Making A-Rod Eat The Mitt. Advertisement Catcher Jason Varitek had a lot of memorable moments with the Red Sox, but none more memorable than when he got into Yankees star Alex Rodriguez's face. Barry Chin/The Boston Globe First base: Kevin Youkilis A.k.a. the Greek God of Walks, or, more colloquially, YOOOOOOOOOOUK! He spent plenty of time at both infield corners for the Red Sox during his 2004-12 run, playing 464 games at third base and 613 at first. His greatest successes came while playing the less hot of those corners. He won a Gold Glove at first base in 2007, finished third in the American League MVP voting in '08 and sixth in '09, and averaged 5.7 WAR per season from 2007-10. Second base: Dustin Pedroia Dare you to tell him someone else is the pick. Actually, based on sentiment, there is no other choice, and based on analytics, he's the easiest call in this exercise. The 2007 AL Rookie of the Year (and World Series scourge of Jeff Francis) and '08 MVP (when he had 54 doubles, 213 hits, and 118 runs), four-time All-Star, and annual Heart Of It All accounted for 51.8 WAR during his 14 full or partial seasons with the Red Sox. Among players who played at least 40 percent of their games at second base, Mark Bellhorn is a very distant second at 4.1 WAR. Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia was the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year and '08 MVP, and a four-time All-Star. Davis, Jim Globe Staff Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts This might seem a tough call for someone who has spent many words here over the years arguing with great effectiveness that Nomar Was Better Than Jeter*. (*from 1997-2003. Then the world turned cruel). But it's not, you see, because this is a vote for stability over mercurial excellence. Nomar Garciaparra did have spectacular seasons after the turn of the century. He hit .372 to win his second straight batting title in 2000, with 7.4 WAR, and after a wrist injury wiped out his 2001 season, he came back perhaps stronger than we recall in 2002 (6.8 WAR) and '03 (6.1). I trust you know what happened in 2004. Bogaerts, who tallied 34.6 WAR to Garciaparra's 20.8 with the Sox this century, was a picture of poise and professionalism in Boston while contributing to the 2013 World Series victory as a 20-year-old kid and the '18 championship as one of the core stars of the most dominant Red Sox team ever. Advertisement Third base: Gonna leave this one up to you, friendly reader. Welp, the analytics claim the choice is easy: Rafael Devers, whose 24.8 WAR more than doubles runner-up Mike Lowell (10.6). But no one within 100 miles or so of the 617 area code wants to go with Devers after his shenanigans this season, and hey, by the way, here's a fun fact: The Red Sox and Giants with Devers this season: 53 wins, 62 losses. The Red Sox and Giants without Devers this season: 68 wins, 46 losses. Makes you think, right? So if you remain Devers-averse, and I presume you do, take your pick at third base among the steady Lowell (Alex Bregman reminds me of him a lot), Mariano-slayer Bill Mueller, one awesome year of Adrian Beltre, or anyone but Pablo Sandoval, really. Advertisement Chad Finn's all-quarter-century Red Sox lineup, with room for readers to decide on their own third baseman. John Hancock/Globe Staff Left field: Manny Ramirez Seventeen years — yep, it's been that long — after he was traded to the Dodgers, I still miss watching him hit, and I will even beyond the day his 2007 playoff home run off Angels closer Francisco 'K-Rod' Rodriguez finally lands. Center field: Johnny Damon Yeah, yeah, he left to sign with the Yankees after the 2005 season, and helped them win their most recent World Series in '09. (Wow, it's been awhile.) Call him a traitor if you must, but nothing he could have done — or ultimately did — in the Bronx could come close in relevance to his two-homer, seven-RBI all-timer of a clutch performance in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS. His time in New York was temporary. His time here is forever. Johnny Damon had two home runs and seven RBIs in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series against the Yankees. Jim Davis/Globe Staff Right field: Mookie Betts Betts's 42.5 WAR is third among Red Sox hitters this century, trailing only David Ortiz (52.5) and Pedroia (51.8). But they were each here for 14 seasons. Betts was here for just six, averaging more than 7 WAR per season, including a staggering 10.7 in his 2018 MVP season, when he hit .346 with 32 homers. Somehow, he's in his sixth season with the Dodgers, and anyone who wants to come out of the woodwork to say his tough 2025 season validates the Sox' foolish decision to trade him can go chew gravel. Designated hitter: David Ortiz 'He is the greatest clutch hitter you, your dad, your granddad, and in all likelihood, your unborn children will ever see. He's Big Papi, larger than life, bigger than the biggest moments.' I wrote that in June 2005, and 20 years, countless highlights, and one Hall of Fame induction later, all I'd change is including your wife, mom, and grandmother, as well. Advertisement Starting pitcher: Pedro Martinez As we said in the '80s: No duh. His 2000 season stands as one of the greatest in baseball history: 18 wins, 6 losses, a 1.74 ERA (in the juiced-hitter era, when the league average was 4.91), 284 strikeouts in 217 innings, and 11.7 WAR, the most by a starting pitcher this century. Following the greatest pitcher I've ever seen in the rotation: Jon Lester (29.9 WAR), Josh Beckett (22.3), Curt Schilling (17.7), and Chris Sale (17.0). Closer: Keith Foulke Jonathan Papelbon actually has the most WAR among Sox closers since 2000, and he closed out the 2007 World Series with style. But Foulke got many of the most tense and toughest outs in Red Sox history during the 2004 postseason. He's the choice. And I'm keeping Koji Uehara on this roster to get it to 25 players, and because he induced the least stress of any closer the Red Sox have ever had. Keith Foulke closed out the Curse-breaking 2004 World Series for the Red Sox. Jim Davis/Globe Staff Others to fill out our 25-man roster: Lefthanded setup man: Hideki Okajima. Righthanded setup man: Mike Timlin. Utilityman: Brock Holt. Player you want fielding the last out of a playoff series: Pokey Reese. Backup outfielder: Gabe Kapler. Pinch runner: Dave Roberts. Stole a base of some magnitude once, I've been told. Designated inspirational speechmaker: Kevin Millar, for the Don't Let Us Win Tonight schtick that proved prescient, and then legendary. Designated series-clinching pitcher and team goof: Derek Lowe. Pitcher who always has his spikes on just in case: Tim Wakefield. Because there's no point in having this team without Wake. Advertisement Chad Finn can be reached at
Washington Post
5 hours ago
- Washington Post
Guerrero and Blue Jays rout Rockies 20-1 to cap Coors Field barrage
DENVER — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had four hits, including a home run, and Davis Schneider went deep twice as the Toronto Blue Jays capped their Coors Field onslaught Wednesday with a 20-1 victory over the Colorado Rockies. The first-place Blue Jays finished with five homers and 24 hits to set a major league record with 63 hits in a three-game series. They established a franchise mark with 45 runs in the three-game set.
