Archer Aviation or Joby: Billionaire Ken Griffin Loads Up on One Top eVTOL Stock

Business Insider

20 hours ago

eVTOL aircraft – or what can broadly be termed flying taxis – have been drawing plenty of attention recently, with leading companies in the space readying themselves for commercial operations. Several operators have conducted successful test flights and are now working closely with aviation regulators (such as the FAA in the U.S. and EASA in Europe) to secure certification for commercial use.
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eVTOL aircraft have the potential to be serious disruptors. They could revolutionize urban transportation by offering fast, quiet, zero-emissions air travel over congested cities – combining the convenience of helicopters with the efficiency of electric propulsion. It's a market expected to see robust growth in the coming years.
According to a recent report by MarketsandMarkets, the eVTOL aircraft market was estimated to be worth $760 million in 2024 and is projected to grow rapidly, reaching $4.67 billion by 2030 – reflecting an average annual growth rate of 35.3% over the period. The momentum is expected to continue, with the market projected to grow from $6.53 billion in 2031 to $17.34 billion by 2035, at a slightly lower but still strong annual growth rate of 27.6%.
With such growth on the horizon, it's no surprise that Wall Street titans like Ken Griffin are paying close attention. Griffin is an investing legend, the founder and CEO of Citadel, currently regarded as the most profitable hedge fund in history. His holdings include two of the most prominent players in the space: Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) and Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY). But recently, Griffin has begun shifting his bets, trimming his stake in one while increasing his stake in the competitor.
So, we decided to dig deeper into these two eVTOL pioneers to understand what might be driving Griffin's moves – and how the Street's stock experts are sizing up their prospects, with some insight from the TipRanks database.
Archer Aviation
One name definitely making waves – or more accurately, causing turbulence – on Wall Street over the past year is Archer Aviation. The stock has been on a tear, gaining 187% over the past 12 months.
What's all the excitement about? Quite a few things, actually. Archer is still in the pre-revenue stage, making it a speculative bet, but the company has been taking meaningful steps toward commercialization.
It is advancing through the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) certification process for its Midnight aircraft, and Archer recently kicked off piloted test flights. While certification timelines in the U.S. remain somewhat uncertain, the company is on track to launch operations in the UAE by the end of the year.
Archer also has some eye-catching collaborations with major industry players. It has the backing of auto giant Stellantis, and agreements in place with United Airlines and Abu Dhabi Aviation (the UAE connection).
Archer has also secured a high-profile partnership as the exclusive Air Taxi manufacturer for the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games, while also becoming the official and exclusive eVTOL sponsor for Team USA.
Furthermore, Archer is already thinking beyond the 'flying taxi' segment – it has teamed up with Anduril Industries, a U.S. defense tech firm, to develop hybrid-electric VTOL aircraft for military use, marking Archer's strategic entry into defense through its new Archer Defense division. Additionally, for a company yet to generate any revenue, Archer has a solid cash position of $1 billion on the balance sheet.
So, it's not that difficult to understand why investors have been backing this name. However, maybe Griffin thinks the gains are quite enough for now. During Q1, he sold 3,088,640 ACHR shares, trimming his holdings by 42%.
That cautious stance is one Barclays analyst David Zazula evidently thinks is merited. Zazula highlights why investors should watch it here: 'Aircraft certification is not guaranteed, potentially eliminating the company's future revenue opportunity. Success of only a few players could invite regulator scrutiny from an anti-trust standpoint; a technical or engineering failure could cause the grounding of aircraft and a loss of revenue,' Zazula explained. 'Given the reliance of Archer's plan on near term revenues from international sales, we believe more clarity is needed on certification progress with the respective regulators to support current stock levels.'
Accordingly, Zazula rates ACHR shares as Equal Weight (i.e., Neutral) while his $4.5 price target factors in a one-year slide of 54%. (To watch Zazula's track record, click here)
Elsewhere on the Street, one other analyst joins Zazula on the sidelines but with an additional 4 Buys, the stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Going by the $10.92 average price target, a year from now, shares will be changing hands for a 10.5% premium. (See ACHR stock forecast)
In the opposite corner vying for investors' eVTOL attention, we have Joby Aviation, another company making big strides toward kicking off commercial activities. Its flagship eVTOL aircraft is the S4, a tilt‑rotor vehicle seating one pilot and four passengers. Powered by six electric motors – four on a fixed wing and two on a V‑tail – it transitions seamlessly from vertical takeoff to wing‑borne flight.
Much like Archer, Joby is positioning its aircraft for short-haul urban and regional travel, targeting both the U.S. and Middle East markets with an eye on launching operations as early as next year. But Joby is going even further by rapidly expanding its operational capabilities – from in-house pilot training to proprietary dispatch software – as it seeks full control over every aspect of its service ecosystem.
That push toward vertical integration is being matched by technical progress. In April, Joby hit a critical milestone, successfully completing its first piloted full transition flight – a key achievement on the road to FAA testing and certification.
On the financial front, Joby is gaining altitude as well. It recently secured a $250 million investment led by Toyota, extending its funding runway and boosting its production capacity.
Investor confidence climbed further after Joby signed a memorandum of understanding with Saudi Arabia's Abdul Latif Jameel to explore a billion-dollar eVTOL rollout – potentially involving up to 200 aircraft. And across the Atlantic, the company is also preparing to launch air taxi services in the UK, where Virgin Atlantic aims to begin operations from London and northern England once regulatory approval is secured.
All of that must have caught Griffin's eye. During Q1, he upped his JOBY stake by 242%, with the purchase of 1,979,364 shares. These are currently worth $15.8 million.
That confident stance is mirrored in Cantor analyst Andres Sheppard's thesis, who writes: 'We continue to believe JOBY is amongst the best-positioned in the eVTOL industry to achieve commercialization and FAA Type Certification. We are also encouraged by the company's plans to enter into service and to carry its first passengers in Dubai by 1H26, which will be the initial market. Additionally, JOBY continues to have the strongest liquidity position in the industry with ~$813M in cash, short-term investments (as of 1Q25), and ~$1.3B in total liquidity (inclusive of Toyota investment). JOBY is partnered with Toyota for production, Delta Air Lines for operations, and the DoD (for various use-cases), which we continue to see as meaningful differentiators. We remain bullish over the long term.'
Quantifying his bullish stance, Sheppard rates JOBY shares as Overweight (i.e., Buy) and backs it up with a $9 price target. If he's right, that implies a potential upside of ~13% from current levels. (To watch Sheppard's track record, click here)
Overall, JOBY stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating, based on a mix of 4 Buys, 2 Holds, and 1 Sell. The average price target stands at $8.29, implying a modest 4% upside over the next 12 months. (See JOBY stock forecast)
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