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News18
an hour ago
- News18
Yunus, Army, Pakistan, And China: A New Axis Threatens India's Security
Last Updated: China's role as the linchpin of this emerging axis cannot be overstated, as it leverages its economic and military influence to counter India's rise India faces an emerging geopolitical storm as Bangladesh's interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, aligns with Pakistan and China, forming a troubling axis that threatens New Delhi's regional dominance. The convergence of Yunus's administration, Bangladesh's military, Pakistan's strategic provocations, and China's growing influence in South Asia presents a multifaceted challenge that India cannot afford to underestimate. Tensions escalated following provocative remarks by a retired Bangladesh army officer, closely tied to Yunus's government, advocating for a joint military arrangement with China to seize India's northeastern states in the event of an India-Pakistan conflict. This inflammatory rhetoric, coupled with Bangladesh's warming ties with Pakistan and China, signals a deliberate shift in Dhaka's foreign policy under Yunus, moving away from the India-friendly stance of the ousted Sheikh Hasina regime. Since August 2024, when Hasina's government fell, attacks on minorities, particularly Hindus, have surged in Bangladesh, straining bilateral relations. India's revocation of transshipment facilities for Bangladeshi exports in April 2025 further highlighted this rift. Meanwhile, Pakistan's military, emboldened by Chinese weaponry like the J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles, has intensified its aggression, as seen in the May 2025 India-Pakistan clashes. China, leveraging its economic and military largesse, is deepening its footprint in both nations, positioning itself as a counterweight to India. This alignment, fueled by Yunus's outreach to Beijing and Pakistan's reliance on Chinese arms, creates a volatile dynamic that could destabilise South Asia. The combination of Yunus's interim regime, Bangladesh's military ambitions, Pakistan's hostility, and China's strategic manoeuvring forms a potent threat that demands India's urgent attention as it navigates this complex regional chessboard. Muhammad Yunus, as Bangladesh's interim leader since August 2024, has steered Dhaka towards a confrontational stance against India, undermining decades of cooperative ties fostered under Sheikh Hasina. His administration's failure to curb rising attacks on Hindus—over 1,000 incidents reported since August—has inflamed tensions, with India viewing these as a deliberate signal of hostility. Yunus's visit to China in early 2025, where he positioned Bangladesh as a gateway for Chinese economic expansion, particularly highlighting the landlocked nature of India's northeastern states, raised alarm in New Delhi. By pitching Bangladesh as the 'only guardian of the ocean" for the region, Yunus invited Beijing to deepen its strategic presence, potentially encircling India's vulnerable northeast. His government's appointment of Major General (Retd) ALM Fazlur Rahman, who called for occupying India's seven northeastern states in coordination with China if India attacks Pakistan, as chairman of the National Independent Commission, underscores this shift. Though Dhaka distanced itself from Rahman's remarks, the lack of disciplinary action suggests tacit approval. This rhetoric aligns with Yunus's broader strategy to balance against India by leveraging China's economic and military support, including agreements signed during his China visit to enhance infrastructure and trade. The revocation of India's transshipment facility, which crippled Bangladesh's export routes, was a direct response to this pivot. Yunus's alignment with anti-India forces, particularly in the context of rising communal violence, risks alienating India's goodwill and strengthening a Bangladesh-China axis that could destabilise the region. As India prepares for potential escalations, Yunus's provocative leadership signals a new front in India's security challenges, especially given Bangladesh's proximity and historical ties with Pakistan. Bangladesh's Military Ambitions and Regional Instability Bangladesh's military, under Yunus's interim government, is emerging as a destabilising force, emboldened by its growing alignment with China and Pakistan. The provocative statement by Major General (Retd) ALM Fazlur Rahman, a key figure appointed by Yunus to investigate the 2009 Bangladesh Rifles mutiny, reflects a broader militaristic undercurrent. Rahman's call for a 'joint military arrangement" with China to target India's northeast, though officially disavowed, highlights a dangerous mindset within Bangladesh's military circles. The Bangladesh army's top general, Qamarul Hasan, visited Pakistan in early 2025, meeting with army chief Asim Munir to discuss enhanced military cooperation. This visit, coupled with Yunus's outreach to China, suggests a coordinated effort to challenge India's regional influence. Bangladesh's military modernisation, supported by Chinese arms, including Type 59 tanks and anti-ship missiles, is modest but strategically significant given its proximity to India's sensitive northeastern border. The region's landlocked geography makes it vulnerable to disruptions, and Bangladesh's control over key maritime routes amplifies this threat. Reports indicate China is funding port upgrades in Chittagong, potentially for dual-use military purposes, which could facilitate Chinese naval presence in the Bay of Bengal. The interim government's failure to address minority violence, coupled with its military's flirtation with anti-India rhetoric, risks escalating tensions into a broader conflict. India's military, already stretched by border disputes with China and Pakistan, must now contend with a potentially hostile Bangladesh, complicating its strategic calculus. This military posturing, backed by Chinese support, positions Bangladesh as a wildcard in South Asia's security landscape, directly threatening India's northeastern stability. Pakistan's Aggression and Chinese Military Backing Pakistan's military escalation against India, particularly evident in the May 2025 clashes, is deeply intertwined with its reliance on Chinese weaponry, amplifying the threat to New Delhi. Following a terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 26 tourists, India launched missile strikes on alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Pakistan retaliated with Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 missiles, claiming to have downed Indian aircraft, including French-made Rafales. The conflict, which saw drones and missiles targeting airbases, highlighted Pakistan's dependence on Chinese arms, with 63% of China's arms exports from 2020-2024 going to Pakistan. The J-10C's reported success against Western technology has boosted China's defence industry, with stocks of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft rising 40% during the conflict. Pakistan's military, led by General Asim Munir, views India as an existential threat, a stance reinforced by its nuclear modernisation and battlefield nuclear weapons development, as noted in a 2025 US Defense Intelligence Agency report. China's support, including the HQ-9 air defence system and joint military exercises, strengthens Pakistan's confidence in confronting India. This dynamic not only escalates the India-Pakistan rivalry but also serves China's interest in keeping India preoccupied with regional conflicts, draining its resources. The Pakistani military's ideological commitment to Kashmir, coupled with Chinese backing, ensures that tensions will persist, with the potential for rapid escalation given both nations' nuclear capabilities. India's successful strikes on Pakistani airbases, despite losses, demonstrate its resolve, but the China-Pakistan nexus complicates its strategic response, making this a critical threat for 2026 and beyond. China's Strategic Manoeuvring: Exploiting Regional Tensions China's role as the linchpin of this emerging axis cannot be overstated, as it leverages its economic and military influence to counter India's rise. Beijing's deepening ties with Bangladesh and Pakistan create a pincer effect, encircling India from the east and west. In Bangladesh, China is investing heavily in infrastructure, including the Chittagong port, which could serve as a strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean. Yunus's invitation for Chinese expansion, emphasising Bangladesh's maritime dominance, aligns with Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to secure access to Nepal and Bhutan's markets while pressuring India's northeast. In Pakistan, China's military support, including advanced J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles, has transformed the India-Pakistan conflict into a proxy battleground for Chinese and Western technologies. The May 2025 clashes provided China with a real-time intelligence harvest, allowing it to assess Indian military capabilities through Pakistan's use of its weapons. China's fishing fleets, doubling as intelligence-gathering units, have been spotted near Indian naval drills, further enhancing Beijing's surveillance capabilities. top videos View all Despite strained China-Pakistan ties due to attacks on Chinese workers in 2024, Beijing continues to back Pakistan to keep India engaged in regional conflicts, diverting its focus from the Sino-Indian border dispute. China's neutral public stance during the India-Pakistan conflict, with its foreign ministry claiming ignorance of J-10C involvement, masks its strategic interest in prolonging tensions. By fostering instability through Bangladesh and Pakistan, China undermines India's global aspirations, positioning itself as the dominant regional power. This calculated manoeuvring, exploiting Yunus's ambitions and Pakistan's hostility, creates a formidable challenge for India's security and diplomatic strategy. The author teaches journalism at St Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata. His handle on X is @sayantan_gh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18's views. tags : bangladesh China Muhammad Yunus Operation Sindoor pakistan Location : Kolkata, India, India First Published: June 05, 2025, 03:17 IST News opinion Opinion | Yunus, Army, Pakistan, And China: A New Axis Threatens India's Security
India Gazette
2 hours ago
- India Gazette
As India and Pakistan eye each other, this superpower eyes the whole map
Beijing's close ties with Islamabad give it a level of influence over dealings with Delhi The recent terrorist attack in India's Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, which originated in Pakistan and resulted in the death of 26, mostly Hindu, civilians, has triggered another wave of heightened tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad. While public discourse has focused on terrorism and hostilities between the two nuclear-powered nations, a deeper analysis reveals the unmistakable imprint of another key actor - China's strategic calculus in the region. The relationship between Islamabad and New Delhi has evolved significantly in recent decades. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar travelled to Beijing days after the military standoff with Delhi and met his counterpart Wang Yi. The Chinese Foreign Minister called Pakistan an " iron-clad friend" and " all-weather strategic partner." China is pursuing a strategy that aligns with its regional interests - including economic engagement, defense cooperation, and influence-building. This strategy, logically, includes efforts to slow down India's rise. Pahalgam incident thus cannot be seen an isolated terrorist attack, but as a signal within a larger geostrategic landscape that is shaping Asia's future. Strategic Timing The flareup in South Asia has come at a time of major geopolitical developments. With the mass shift of Western companies like Apple away from China to India, India is poised to become the next big manufacturing hub. As global businesses explore alternatives to rising operational costs and geopolitical uncertainties in China, India is increasingly seen as a competitive option. Additionally, the proposed US tariffs may add pressure to China's manufacturing sector, which is already adapting to evolving global supply chains. For the strongman leader, Xi Jinping, sustaining economic growth and employment remains a top priority. Any escalation involving India could introduce uncertainty that might affect investor sentiment and infrastructure momentum. Regional instability could redirect global attention away from India's growth narrative toward internal and border-related concerns. China's close political, economic and defence ties with Pakistan - an economically vulnerable partner - gives Beijing a certain level of influence on the way Islamabad deals with India. New Delhi was compelled to act militarily, risking escalation and economic fallout. To India's credit, it managed to negotiate a ceasefire after achieving its key objectives of affecting 11 Pakistani air bases and nine terrorist camps and other strategic terrorist infrastructures against the popular sentiment against de-escalation. Economic factor Pakistan has been struggling with near to bankruptcy. Its foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $4.3bn, its lowest levels since February 2014. Despite a $2.4 billion bailout from the IMF - approved on May 9, when Islamabad and New Delhi were firing missiles at each other - the Pakistani economy is still in tatters. China's offer of financial and military aid to Islamabad at such times comes in more than handy. China's support for Pakistan is not circumstantial. It is also institutional and deeply entrenched. Between 2014 to 2024, China sold over $9 billion worth of advanced weaponry to Pakistan, accounting for around 80% of imported weapons, including J-10CE fighter jets, Wing Loong drones, LY-80 air defence systems, and naval assets. The operational use of these systems in the recent conflict, including Pakistani claims of downing Rafales using Chinese PL-15 missiles, has allowed Beijing to showcase its weapons systems in live combat. Beyond India, China's motivation also ties into its long-term strategic objectives in the Persian Gulf. Pakistan provides China access to the Arabian Sea via Gwadar port, a linchpin in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and part of the broader Belt and Road Initiative. This maritime access offers China two significant advantages: a strategic military presence near key Middle Eastern shipping lanes and an alternative route for oil imports in case of a US-China maritime standoff in the South China Sea. Military-Industrial Complex benefits China's defence industry is another big beneficiary of the escalation. Claims by the Pakistan Air Force that Chinese-made jets outmanoeuvred India's French-built Rafales, regardless of their authenticity, have created a nationalist fervour in Chinese social media and boosted investor confidence. Stocks in Chinese defence manufacturers surged as hashtags like "J-10 shot down Indian warplanes" trended online, and praise for the PL-15 missile system flooded Weibo. Indeed, Beijing wants to use this as an inflexion point for its arms export ambitions. With Western suppliers often constrained by political alignments or human rights concerns, China's relatively unrestricted military exports offer an attractive alternative, especially in conflict-prone or authoritarian regimes across Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. A perceived successful battlefield performance strengthens China's pitch as a reliable arms supplier. From shaping regional dynamics to advancing its defense exports and maintaining strategic interests in West Asia, China may perceive certain advantages in the current situation in the region. While the Pahalgam attack was carried out by terrorist actors, it may also reflect broader regional undercurrents in which multiple stakeholders play complex and calculated roles. Through India-Pakistan rivalry, China is executing a proxy strategy that would halt India's rise, safeguard its own economic interests and bolster its defence exports and regional clout. Beijing has much to gain and little to lose from this rivalry - as long as it stays just below the threshold of full-scale war.
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Business Standard
2 hours ago
- Business Standard
Trump tax bill to add $2.42 trn to US deficit: Congressional Budget Office
The House-passed version of President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill would add $2.42 trillion to US budget deficits over the next decade, according to a new estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The CBO's calculation, released Wednesday in its so-called scoring of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' reflects a $3.67 trillion decrease in expected revenues and a $1.25 trillion decline in spending over the decade through 2034, relative to baseline projections. Prospects for an even more dire US fiscal trajectory threaten to stoke concerns about the bill among GOP fiscal hawks. Trump ally Elon Musk on Tuesday blasted the package as a 'massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.' House Republicans narrowly passed the bill last month, and it now faces opposition in the Senate, where multiple lawmakers have expressed varying demands for changes. Trump is expected to meet with Senate Finance Committee Republicans Wednesday to discuss the bill. Trump administration officials have repeatedly dismissed CBO projections as inaccurate, saying they fail to account for the uplift to economic growth that the tax cuts, along with tariff hikes and deregulation, will provide. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month, 'I'm not worried about the US debt dynamics,' because a swelling GDP will ease the burden. He also predicted 'north of 3%' growth by this time next year. Timing for passage The CBO's $2.42 trillion deficit-increase estimate doesn't incorporate any so-called dynamic effects from changes in economic growth or other indicators resulting from the new tax and spending measures. Bessent has called on lawmakers to pass the bill, which includes an increase in the statutory debt limit, by mid-July. The Treasury has been using special accounting maneuvers to keep within the debt ceiling since the start of the year, and has warned it could exhaust its capacity in August. Fiscal conservatives have demanded the measure do more for deficit reduction. But other GOP members have demanded that temporary tax cuts in the bill be made permanent — which would further dampen revenues. The CBO score will also be reviewed by the Senate's rules-keeper who could determine whether provisions comply with the chamber's requirements. The bill encompasses much of Trump's economic agenda. It would make permanent his 2017 income-tax cuts, and provide new benefits promised on the campaign trail — including eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay through 2028. It also raises the cap on the federal deduction for state and local taxes to $40,000 from $10,000. The bill has various federal spending cuts, including to clean-energy credits, and features new work requirements for Medicaid beneficiaries and new guidelines for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Some of those cuts also face opposition among Senate Republicans. Wednesday's CBO release indicated that measures in the existing bill could leave 10.9 million people without health insurance in 2034. That includes 1.4 million without verified citizenship, nationality or satisfactory immigration status who would no longer be covered in state-only funded programs.
