Yunus, Army, Pakistan, And China: A New Axis Threatens India's Security
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China's role as the linchpin of this emerging axis cannot be overstated, as it leverages its economic and military influence to counter India's rise
India faces an emerging geopolitical storm as Bangladesh's interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, aligns with Pakistan and China, forming a troubling axis that threatens New Delhi's regional dominance. The convergence of Yunus's administration, Bangladesh's military, Pakistan's strategic provocations, and China's growing influence in South Asia presents a multifaceted challenge that India cannot afford to underestimate. Tensions escalated following provocative remarks by a retired Bangladesh army officer, closely tied to Yunus's government, advocating for a joint military arrangement with China to seize India's northeastern states in the event of an India-Pakistan conflict.
This inflammatory rhetoric, coupled with Bangladesh's warming ties with Pakistan and China, signals a deliberate shift in Dhaka's foreign policy under Yunus, moving away from the India-friendly stance of the ousted Sheikh Hasina regime. Since August 2024, when Hasina's government fell, attacks on minorities, particularly Hindus, have surged in Bangladesh, straining bilateral relations. India's revocation of transshipment facilities for Bangladeshi exports in April 2025 further highlighted this rift. Meanwhile, Pakistan's military, emboldened by Chinese weaponry like the J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles, has intensified its aggression, as seen in the May 2025 India-Pakistan clashes. China, leveraging its economic and military largesse, is deepening its footprint in both nations, positioning itself as a counterweight to India. This alignment, fueled by Yunus's outreach to Beijing and Pakistan's reliance on Chinese arms, creates a volatile dynamic that could destabilise South Asia. The combination of Yunus's interim regime, Bangladesh's military ambitions, Pakistan's hostility, and China's strategic manoeuvring forms a potent threat that demands India's urgent attention as it navigates this complex regional chessboard.
Muhammad Yunus, as Bangladesh's interim leader since August 2024, has steered Dhaka towards a confrontational stance against India, undermining decades of cooperative ties fostered under Sheikh Hasina. His administration's failure to curb rising attacks on Hindus—over 1,000 incidents reported since August—has inflamed tensions, with India viewing these as a deliberate signal of hostility. Yunus's visit to China in early 2025, where he positioned Bangladesh as a gateway for Chinese economic expansion, particularly highlighting the landlocked nature of India's northeastern states, raised alarm in New Delhi. By pitching Bangladesh as the 'only guardian of the ocean" for the region, Yunus invited Beijing to deepen its strategic presence, potentially encircling India's vulnerable northeast.
His government's appointment of Major General (Retd) ALM Fazlur Rahman, who called for occupying India's seven northeastern states in coordination with China if India attacks Pakistan, as chairman of the National Independent Commission, underscores this shift. Though Dhaka distanced itself from Rahman's remarks, the lack of disciplinary action suggests tacit approval. This rhetoric aligns with Yunus's broader strategy to balance against India by leveraging China's economic and military support, including agreements signed during his China visit to enhance infrastructure and trade. The revocation of India's transshipment facility, which crippled Bangladesh's export routes, was a direct response to this pivot.
Yunus's alignment with anti-India forces, particularly in the context of rising communal violence, risks alienating India's goodwill and strengthening a Bangladesh-China axis that could destabilise the region. As India prepares for potential escalations, Yunus's provocative leadership signals a new front in India's security challenges, especially given Bangladesh's proximity and historical ties with Pakistan.
Bangladesh's Military Ambitions and Regional Instability
Bangladesh's military, under Yunus's interim government, is emerging as a destabilising force, emboldened by its growing alignment with China and Pakistan. The provocative statement by Major General (Retd) ALM Fazlur Rahman, a key figure appointed by Yunus to investigate the 2009 Bangladesh Rifles mutiny, reflects a broader militaristic undercurrent. Rahman's call for a 'joint military arrangement" with China to target India's northeast, though officially disavowed, highlights a dangerous mindset within Bangladesh's military circles. The Bangladesh army's top general, Qamarul Hasan, visited Pakistan in early 2025, meeting with army chief Asim Munir to discuss enhanced military cooperation. This visit, coupled with Yunus's outreach to China, suggests a coordinated effort to challenge India's regional influence. Bangladesh's military modernisation, supported by Chinese arms, including Type 59 tanks and anti-ship missiles, is modest but strategically significant given its proximity to India's sensitive northeastern border.
The region's landlocked geography makes it vulnerable to disruptions, and Bangladesh's control over key maritime routes amplifies this threat. Reports indicate China is funding port upgrades in Chittagong, potentially for dual-use military purposes, which could facilitate Chinese naval presence in the Bay of Bengal. The interim government's failure to address minority violence, coupled with its military's flirtation with anti-India rhetoric, risks escalating tensions into a broader conflict. India's military, already stretched by border disputes with China and Pakistan, must now contend with a potentially hostile Bangladesh, complicating its strategic calculus. This military posturing, backed by Chinese support, positions Bangladesh as a wildcard in South Asia's security landscape, directly threatening India's northeastern stability.
Pakistan's Aggression and Chinese Military Backing
Pakistan's military escalation against India, particularly evident in the May 2025 clashes, is deeply intertwined with its reliance on Chinese weaponry, amplifying the threat to New Delhi. Following a terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 26 tourists, India launched missile strikes on alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Pakistan retaliated with Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 missiles, claiming to have downed Indian aircraft, including French-made Rafales. The conflict, which saw drones and missiles targeting airbases, highlighted Pakistan's dependence on Chinese arms, with 63% of China's arms exports from 2020-2024 going to Pakistan.
The J-10C's reported success against Western technology has boosted China's defence industry, with stocks of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft rising 40% during the conflict. Pakistan's military, led by General Asim Munir, views India as an existential threat, a stance reinforced by its nuclear modernisation and battlefield nuclear weapons development, as noted in a 2025 US Defense Intelligence Agency report. China's support, including the HQ-9 air defence system and joint military exercises, strengthens Pakistan's confidence in confronting India.
This dynamic not only escalates the India-Pakistan rivalry but also serves China's interest in keeping India preoccupied with regional conflicts, draining its resources. The Pakistani military's ideological commitment to Kashmir, coupled with Chinese backing, ensures that tensions will persist, with the potential for rapid escalation given both nations' nuclear capabilities. India's successful strikes on Pakistani airbases, despite losses, demonstrate its resolve, but the China-Pakistan nexus complicates its strategic response, making this a critical threat for 2026 and beyond.
China's Strategic Manoeuvring: Exploiting Regional Tensions
China's role as the linchpin of this emerging axis cannot be overstated, as it leverages its economic and military influence to counter India's rise. Beijing's deepening ties with Bangladesh and Pakistan create a pincer effect, encircling India from the east and west. In Bangladesh, China is investing heavily in infrastructure, including the Chittagong port, which could serve as a strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean. Yunus's invitation for Chinese expansion, emphasising Bangladesh's maritime dominance, aligns with Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to secure access to Nepal and Bhutan's markets while pressuring India's northeast. In Pakistan, China's military support, including advanced J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles, has transformed the India-Pakistan conflict into a proxy battleground for Chinese and Western technologies. The May 2025 clashes provided China with a real-time intelligence harvest, allowing it to assess Indian military capabilities through Pakistan's use of its weapons. China's fishing fleets, doubling as intelligence-gathering units, have been spotted near Indian naval drills, further enhancing Beijing's surveillance capabilities.
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Despite strained China-Pakistan ties due to attacks on Chinese workers in 2024, Beijing continues to back Pakistan to keep India engaged in regional conflicts, diverting its focus from the Sino-Indian border dispute. China's neutral public stance during the India-Pakistan conflict, with its foreign ministry claiming ignorance of J-10C involvement, masks its strategic interest in prolonging tensions. By fostering instability through Bangladesh and Pakistan, China undermines India's global aspirations, positioning itself as the dominant regional power. This calculated manoeuvring, exploiting Yunus's ambitions and Pakistan's hostility, creates a formidable challenge for India's security and diplomatic strategy.
The author teaches journalism at St Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata. His handle on X is @sayantan_gh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18's views.
tags :
bangladesh China Muhammad Yunus Operation Sindoor pakistan
Location :
Kolkata, India, India
First Published:
June 05, 2025, 03:17 IST
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