‘Electoral wake-up call': dozens of Labour MPs risk losing majorities over welfare cuts

The Guardian

14-04-2025

At least 80 Labour MPs are at risk of losing their majorities over proposed welfare cuts, according to data shared between Labour MPs who are warning the government that the changes 'pose a real electoral risk'.
The analysis suggests almost 200 Labour MPs have a majority smaller than the number of recipients of personal independent payments in their constituencies – a significant number in northern England 'red wall' seats.
Not all of those recipients will be affected by the changes – but more than 80 Labour MPs have a majority which is smaller than the number of disabled people who could see their benefits cuts.
MPs say an organising campaign to oppose welfare changes is stepping up coordinated action over the Easter recess, with a vote now expected in June.
Rebels believe they may be able to secure as many as 50 MPs to vote against the changes. One MP who opposes the changes said party whips had been suggesting some uneasy MPs may be quietly allowed to abstain on the vote.
A number of disaffected but loyalist MPs who do not want to rebel have been encouraging a campaign of personal letter-writing directly to Keir Starmer to urge changes to the cuts or pledges of more action to tackle poverty in advance of the vote, saying it was 'pointless' to lobby the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
More hardline MPs are planning a mass public intervention in the weeks after parliament returns, the Guardian has been told.
The Office of Budget Responsibility has suggested about 52% of current claimants do not score high enough on their current assessment to remain eligible for Pip, though many would be likely to challenge the reassessment.
Cabinet and senior ministers are among those who have smaller majorities than the number of constituents expected to be affected by the changes.
They include the justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, and health secretary, Wes Streeting, as well as the safeguarding minister, Jess Phillips, education minister, Nia Griffith, and homelessness minister, Rushanara Ali.
The list also includes high-profile MPs who are vulnerable to Reform, such as the Barnsley South MP, Stephanie Peacock, Rotherham MP, Sarah Champion, Kingston upon Hull East MP, Karl Turner, and Grimsby MP, Melanie Onn.
Some MPs with healthy majorities could be at risk, the data shows. In Easington, where Grahame Morris has a majority of more than 6,000 over Reform, there are more than 12,600 Pip claimants. In Huddersfield, Harpreet Uppal has a majority of more than 4,500 over the Greens, but 9,387 Pip claimants.
MPs are also warning that family members of claimants are also likely to be affected significantly or feel very strongly about the cuts – meaning the ripple effect could be much greater.
The data also shows the sheer numbers of voters in Labour constituencies – even with large majorities – where people receive Pip. In some Labour constituencies, including Easington, Blaenau Gwent and Aberfan, one in five of the working-age population receive Pip payments.
In the Swansea West seat of the pensions minister, Torsten Bell, one in six people receive Pip. In Pat McFadden's Wolverhampton seat, it is about one in seven, similar to the seat of the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, in Houghton and Sunderland South.
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The proposals will introduce strict higher bars to accessing disability support to those in and out of work, as well as cut the higher rate of universal credit (UC) which applies to those who are too disabled to work.
The data has been disseminated among Labour MPs including by Andy McDonald, the former shadow employment minister. He said: 'The government's welfare reforms disproportionately hit constituents who can least afford it and that is particularly so in the constituencies of many Labour MPs. It poses a real electoral risk.
'We know people on low incomes spend the money they take home in their local communities, so this policy is sucking money out of our local towns. The government should prioritise its anti-poverty strategy before rushing decisions to reform welfare which harm those in need.'
Neil Duncan-Jordan, the Labour MP for Poole, said it was clear the cuts would have an electoral impact. 'It is quite clear from the recent polling by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation that the majority of people who voted Labour in 2024 believe the proposed changes to disability benefits are wrong.
'It's not only morally wrong to target the poor, it's also electorally foolish. The government needs to withdraw the green paper and go back to the drawing board.'
The MP Richard Burgon said he hoped the data would raise alarm among Labour colleagues. 'There is no moral case for these cuts to disability benefits. But for Labour MPs not yet persuaded that it's morally wrong to balance the books on the backs of the disabled, this data will be an electoral wake-up call,' he said.
'This cruel policy doesn't just betray our values, but risks contributing to this being a one-term Labour government. The idea that voters hit by these cuts have 'nowhere else to go' is outdated nonsense. They do and so do their friends and family. Other parties are waiting in the wings and in many Labour-held seats with large numbers of disabled people, this policy will help pave the way for Reform.'
DWP has promised a £1bn employment support package to help more disabled people into work and additional support for those disabled people who have no prospect of ever working.
The data was compiled by Julia Modern, the co-chair of Disability Poverty Campaign Group. 'Some of us will lose up to £10,000 a year, which is nearly 60% of the income that a disabled person who cannot work because of disability receives through universal credit and Pip,' she said. 'At least 350,000 people will be pushed into poverty as a result, joining the 4.8 million disabled people who already live in poverty in the UK.
'The results suggest Labour is making a colossal political mistake. We urge Labour backbenchers to do the right thing: to speak up and say they will not vote for such cruel and badly thought-through cuts.'
A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson said: 'We have been clear that protecting people in need is a principle we will never compromise on … Our reforms will unlock work for sick and disabled people who can and want to be in employment … ensuring they are supported to live with dignity and independence, whilst making sure that everyone who can realise the benefits of work is expected and supported to do so.'