Tropical Storm Erin to strengthen into hurricane Friday: See path tracker

Indianapolis Star

a day ago

Tropical Storm Erin is continuing to pick up strength as it moves across the Atlantic, with forecasters expecting the storm to officially strengthen into a hurricane on Friday, Aug. 15, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The hurricane center issued an advisory at 8 a.m. ET on Aug. 15 that said Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph and that this motion is expected to continue into the weekend. The center of the storm is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. As of 8 a.m. ET, it was located about 520 miles east of the islands.
Forecasters said maximum sustained winds are about 70 mph with higher gusts and that steady strengthening is expected during the next few days.
"Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane by this weekend," the hurricane center said. A major hurricane is a term used for cyclones rated a Category 3 or higher with sustained wind speeds over 110 mph.
Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall beginning late Friday, Aug. 15, and continuing through the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected, and this rainfall may lead to isloated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides and mudslides, according to hurricane center forecasters.
Additioanlly, swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the NHC said.
Rapid intensification?: Hurricane forecasters say Erin's winds could skyrocket.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
In addition to Erin, the NHC is also keeping an eye on a disturbance located over the western Gulf that forecasters say "continues to lack a closed low-level circulation."
Forecasters said in an Aug. 15 advisory that shower activity has increased some over the past few hours and the system, currently labeled as Invest 98L, could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland over northeastern Mexico or soutehrn Texas this afternoon oe evening.
"Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system," the hurricane center said in the advisory.
The NHC gives the system a 50% chance of formation through the next 48 hours.
Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.
A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.
Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.