Xi Jinping's plan to beat America at AI
On May 21, US Vice President J.D. Vance described the development of artificial intelligence as an 'arms race' with China. If America paused out of concerns over AI safety, he said, it might find itself 'enslaved to PRC-mediated AI'.
The idea of a superpower showdown that will culminate in a moment of triumph or defeat circulates relentlessly in Washington, DC, and beyond.
This month, the bosses of OpenAI, AMD, CoreWeave and Microsoft lobbied for lighter regulation, casting AI as central to America's remaining the global hegemon. On May 15, US President Donald Trump brokered an AI deal with the United Arab Emirates he said would ensure American 'dominance in AI'. America plans to spend more than $US1 trillion ($1.6 trillion) by 2030 on data centres for AI models.
The 'DeepSeek moment' in January, when the Chinese firm unveiled a large-language model (LLM) matching the capabilities of an OpenAI model, confirmed that China is snapping at the heels of the United States. Yet, a recent meeting of the Communist Party's leadership suggests it is preparing for a different kind of strategic race.
'American firms focus on the model, but Chinese players emphasise practically applying AI,' says Tsinghua University's Zhang Yaqin, a former boss of tech giant Baidu. This focus on practical applications – in factories and for consumers – is how China stole a lead in e-commerce and e-payments.
On May 19, Jensen Huang, the boss of Nvidia, a chip firm, warned the US could be left behind again. If American firms did not compete in China as it built a 'rich ecosystem', Chinese technology and leadership 'will diffuse all around the world', he told the newsletter, Stratechery.
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America's view of AI is often abstract and hyperbolic. LLMs are expected to match humans' cognitive abilities, with boosters believing this rubicon of artificial general intelligence (AGI) will be crossed in a couple of years. OpenAI chief Sam Altman reckons the next step could be superintelligent systems that actually surpass human abilities in cognitive tasks.
Being the first to develop a model that can recursively improve itself (some call this 'take-off') may create a decisive advantage comparable to being the first to develop a nuclear bomb. Barath Harithas, of think tank CSIS, notes that American planners think 'the first country to secure the AGI laurel will usher in the 100-year dynasty'. America's export controls on semiconductors are there to ensure China comes second.
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The National Security Law, which punishes offences such as acts of subversion, collusion with foreign forces, and terrorism, with terms of up to life in jail, was imposed by Beijing on the former British colony in 2020. The Chinese and Hong Kong governments say the law is necessary to restore stability following anti-government protests in 2019. But some Western governments have criticised it as being used to suppress free speech and dissent. Hong Kong authorities have once again arrested pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong and charged him with conspiracy to collude with a foreign country under a Beijing-imposed national security law. Wong, 28, was originally set to be released in January 2027 from a 56-month jail sentence he is serving under the same law for conspiracy to commit subversion after he participated in an unofficial primary election. 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