Why James Hagens dropped down NHL draft boards, and the Islanders' unique predicament at No. 1

New York Times

6 days ago

James Hagens entered the 2025 draft cycle coming off an MVP performance at the 2024 U18 World Championships and a dominant season in the USHL. He was projected by many — including myself and several NHL scouts I spoke to — as the No. 1 prospect for this class.
He had a very good draft season. Hagens posted a point per game as a freshman at Boston College, playing major minutes on one of the top teams in college hockey. He centered the top line for Team USA at the World Juniors, where they won gold. He has a rich history of prolific scoring and being one of the very best players in his age group. He is among the very best skaters and puck handlers in this draft.
Advertisement
We've been spoiled recently with the years Macklin Celebrini and Adam Fantilli had in college in their draft seasons. Hagens didn't do what they did, but his season compares to what Matty Beniers and Kent Johnson did at Michigan when they were top-five picks in 2021.
Hagens has outplayed several top draft prospects he's being compared to — or has apparently been surpassed by — at various events. He was way better than Porter Martone at this year's World Juniors and arguably just as good or better than him at the U18 Worlds last spring. At that tournament, where Hagens was a top player, Caleb Desnoyers was a fourth-line forward for Canada. Hagens also outplayed Michael Misa at their U17 Challenge two years ago.
So why isn't he considered in the conversation for the best player in the draft anymore?
There are a few variables. While he played very well this season, evaluators have minor questions about how Hagens' game would translate to the NHL. At BC, he had stretches this season where he was hard to notice at even strength and had too many games where he was invisible. He struggled to consistently get to the inside against bigger college defenders. He also struggled to score goals this season.
At barely 5-foot-11 and without a physical edge, his profile becomes harder to project as a top-line NHL center who you can win with. His compete level is decent and looked good at the World Juniors, but I wouldn't call it a standout trait.
If Hagens turns into the most offensively productive player from this class, I wouldn't be shocked, and frankly, I would call him the most purely talented offensive player in the class. But winning in the NHL is about more than scoring. Several players — such as Misa and potentially Anton Frondell, Desnoyers or Martone — may go ahead of Hagens simply because the profile they project as (bigger, two-way players, most as centers) is more valuable to NHL teams than a dynamic, scoring small player who may or may not be an NHL center.
Advertisement
The scouts who are bullish on Hagens, though, would argue that if he were playing junior hockey instead of college, he would have lapped some of those other players.
Which brings us to the New York Islanders, who now face a fascinating decision.
As soon as they won the draft lottery, buzz around Hagens started up among a vocal part of the fan base. Hagens is from Long Island. He grew up an Islanders fan. For a franchise that lost their last No. 1 pick when John Tavares signed with Toronto as a free agent, the idea of drafting one of their own carries real emotional weight, especially given his profile as a projected No. 1 pick at some point.
That, however, is not the state of the draft currently. Right now, there's one player most teams believe is fitting of the No. 1 pick: Matthew Schaefer. A minority leans toward Misa, but that is the extent of it. Frankly, from the scouts I've talked to, there are as many who feel Hagens isn't a top-five player in the draft than who feel there's a meaningful challenger to Schaefer at No. 1.
'Schaefer is the only truly special player in this draft,' said one NHL scout, with an executive we talked to stating, 'Other than maybe Misa, Schaefer is in a tier of his own.'
Schaefer is a 6-foot-2 defenseman with tremendous skating ability who makes a lot of plays, competes hard and has the ability to control games from the back end. He projects as a star 25-minute-per-game NHL defenseman who helps you win playoff games. He dominated almost every game he suited up in this season, even if his playing time was limited due to injury. His offensive upside isn't elite, but the total package is. Even if he wasn't clearly ahead of Hagens a year ago at this time, Schaefer is nearly a full year younger than Hagens, and as he continued to develop this season, the separation became clear.
Advertisement
If the Islanders had the No. 2 pick, the Hagens conversation would make sense. He's not my No. 2 ranked player, or that of almost any NHL scout I've talked to, but it's perfectly within the realm of possibilities that Hagens ends up the pure best player in the class, surpassing Schaefer, and even more reasonable that he could end up the best forward in the draft. This isn't a Connor Bedard or Macklin Celebrini draft where the difference from 1 to 5 is gigantic. But Hagens becoming the best player in the draft is not the likely outcome, and taking Hagens over Schaefer would be the move of an organization that is unserious about winning the Stanley Cup and putting a priority on other variables.
'They'd be going way off the board in the eyes of most teams if they took Hagens,' said one NHL scout.
The Tavares situation looms in the background, but it's not the same. It's understandable the organization feels overshadowed at times by the Rangers, but the Islanders aren't the team they were in 2018. They have stable ownership. They have a permanent home in UBS Arena and have had reasonable playoff success in recent years. The idea that Hagens would stay just because he's local isn't enough to make up for passing on the better player.
Hagens is a fantastic NHL prospect with the potential to be an impact offensive player. He has the tools to be a consistent 60-80 point forward in the league or better. My NHL comparison for him is William Nylander. He's a legitimate top-five talent and would be a perfectly reasonable pick at No. 2 or 3.
But as tends to be the case in many drafts, there is typically a distinction between the No. 1 prospect and the next best player. The gap isn't as wide this year, but in the mind of most evaluators, and I tend to agree, the pick is clear-cut. As difficult as it may be, the Islanders have only one correct decision to make, and that is drafting Schaefer.