China factory activity shrinks for fourth month in July, PMI shows
The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.3 in July versus 49.7 in June, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction, and missed a median forecast of 49.7 in a Reuters poll. The reading was the lowest since April.
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The Independent
22 minutes ago
- The Independent
Switzerland, the land of luxury brands, could see prices skyrocket from Trump's 39% tariffs
Prices for the eponymous Swiss watches, Swiss chocolate and Swiss cheese could skyrocket in a week as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war. Switzerland, home to some the world's most recognizable luxury brands, now faces an upcoming 39% tariff from the U.S. Industry groups on Friday warned that both Swiss companies and American consumers could pay the price. Trump signed an executive order Thursday placing tariffs on many U.S. trade partners — the next step in his trade agenda that will test the global economy and alliances — that's set to take effect next Thursday. The order applies to 66 countries, the European Union, Taiwan and the Falkland Islands. In Switzerland, officials failed to reach a final agreement with the U.S. after Trump initially threatened a 31% tariff in April. Swiss companies will now have one of the steepest export duties — only Laos, Myanmar and Syria had higher figures, at 40-41%. The 27-member EU bloc and Britain, meanwhile, negotiated 15% and 10% tariffs, respectively. Figure came as a surprise The Swiss government spent Friday — the country's National Day — reeling from the news. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter said that the 39% figure was a surprise, because negotiators had hashed out a deal last month with the Trump administration that apparently wasn't approved by the American leader himself. 'We will now analyze the situation and try to find a solution," Keller-Sutter told reporters. 'I can't say what the outcome will be, but it will certainly damage the economy.' The U.S. goods trade deficit with Switzerland was $38.5 billion last year, a 56.9% increase over 2023, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. Keller-Sutter said that she believes Trump ultimately chose the 39% tariff, because the figure rounded up from the $38.5 billion goods trade deficit. 'It was clear that the president was focused on the trade deficit and only this issue,' she said. Time is ticking for watch companies For Swiss watch companies, whose products already come with price tags in the tens of thousands — if not the hundreds of thousands — of euros, a timepiece for an arm could cost a leg, too, come next week. The 39% figure was especially galling to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, because Switzerland in 2024 got rid of import tariffs on all industrial goods. 'As Switzerland has eliminated all custom duties on imported industrial products, there is no problem with reciprocity between Switzerland and the U.S.,' the federation said in a statement. 'The tariffs constitute a severe problem for our bilateral relations.' Swiss watch exports were already facing a prolonged slowdown, with significant declines in the United States, Japan and Hong Kong, according to the federation's June figures, the most recent available. Swatch and Rolex declined to comment Friday. Representatives for Patek Philippe, IWC and Breitling didn't respond to requests for comment. Sour taste for Swiss chocolatiers Multinational chocolatiers Nestlé and Lindt & Sprüngli said they have production lines in the U.S. for American customers. But small- and medium-sized Swiss companies are predicted to suffer under the tariffs. Roger Wehrli, chief executive of the Association of Swiss Chocolate Manufacturers. also known as Chocosuisse, said Switzerland exports 7% of its chocolate production to the U.S. It's not just the 39% tariff that's the issue. Once the manufacturers factor in the exchange rate between U.S. dollars and Swiss francs ($1 to 1.23 francs on Friday), Wehrli said, it's close to a 50% increase in costs for the Swiss companies. And that's a big number to pass on to American consumers, if the already-slim margins aren't further reduced. 'I expect that our industry will lose customers in the United States, and that sales volumes will decrease heavily,' he told The Associated Press. Wehrli said that he wants Swiss chocolatiers to sell to other markets around the globe to make up the difference. Still, he hopes American customers remember that Swiss quality beats cheaper quantity. 'I think even if prices for Swiss chocolate increase due to the very high tariffs, I think it's worth (it) to buy Swiss chocolate," he said. 'It's worth (it) to really eat it consciously and to really enjoy it instead of eating a lot.' Tough pill for Swiss pharmaceuticals Swiss pharmaceuticals powerhouse Roche says that it's working to ensure its patients and customers worldwide have access to their medications and diagnostics amid the Trump tariff war. 'While we believe pharmaceuticals and diagnostics should be exempt from tariffs to protect patient access, supply chains and ultimately future innovation, we are prepared for potential tariffs being implemented and confident in managing any impacts,' the statement said. The company in April announced that it plans to invest $50 billion in the United States over the next five years, creating 12,000 jobs. The company already employs more than 25,000 people in the U.S. Meanwhile, Novartis, another major Swiss pharmaceutical firm, said in a statement that it was reviewing Trump's executive order. 'We remain committed to finding ways to improve access and affordability for patients,' it said. ___ Pietro De Cristofaro in Berlin, and David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany, contributed to this report.
The Independent
22 minutes ago
- The Independent
What consumers can expect from import taxes as the US sets new tariff rates
American businesses and consumers woke up Friday to find the contours of President Donald Trump 's foreign trade agenda taking shape but without much more clarity on how import taxes on goods from dozens of countries would affect them. Late Thursday, Trump ordered new tariff rates for 66 countries, the European Union, Taiwan and the Falkland Islands. Among them: a 40% tariff on imports from Laos, a 39% tariff on goods from Switzerland and a 30% tariff on South African products. Other trade partners, such as Cambodia, had the tax rates on their exports to the U.S. reduced from levels the president had threatened to impose. Trump postponed the start date for all of the tariffs from Friday until Aug. 7. Wendong Zhang, an associate professor in the Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University, said U.S. consumers may be feeling some relief with the tariff rates announced, since many were lower than Trump initially threatened. Indonesia's rate was 19%, for example, down from the 32% Trump announced last spring. But tariffs are a tax, and U.S. consumers are likely to foot at least part of that bill. 'Prices are still going up, they just won't go up as much as in the worst-case scenario,' Zhang said. Companies are dealing with tariffs in various ways. Many automakers appear to be swallowing tariff costs for now. But the world's largest eyewear maker, EssilorLuxottica, said it raised U.S. prices due to tariffs. The maker of Ray-Bans grinds lenses and sunglasses in Mexico, Thailand and China and exports premium frames from Italy. Here's what we know about the tariffs and what their impact will be on U.S. consumers: How we got here President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping import taxes on goods coming into the U.S. from nearly every country in April. He said the tariffs were meant to boost domestic manufacturing and restore fairness to global trade. A week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs but did leave in place a 10% tax on most imports. In early July, Trump began sending letters to dozens of countries saying higher tariffs would go into effect Aug. 1 unless they reached trade deals. The administration announced new rates for dozens of countries on Thursday but delayed their implementation until Aug. 7. In the meantime, Trump announced a 35% tariff on imports from Canada would take effect Friday. But Trump delayed action on Mexico and China while negotiations continue. Other duties not specific to countries also remained in place Friday, like a 50% tariff on imported aluminum and steel announced in June. What tariffs are in place already The Trump administration has reached deals with the European Union, Japan and South Korea that put 15% tariffs in place. A deal with the Philippines puts 19% tariffs in place while a deal with Vietnam imposes a 20% levy. On Wednesday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from India and a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil. Tariffs are already impacting prices The U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday that prices rose 2.6% in June, up from an annual pace of 2.4% in May and higher than the Federal Reserve's goal of 2%. Many goods that are heavily imported saw price increases, including furniture, appliances and computers. Zhang, the Cornell economist, said U.S. consumers could see higher prices in the coming months for appliances and other products that contain a large amount of steel and aluminum. Toys, kitchenware, electronics and home goods could also see price spikes. But Zhang said a 15% tariff doesn't mean prices will immediately rise by 15%. Companies were aware of the tariff deadlines and have been trying to stockpile goods and take other measures to mitigate the impacts. Some Americans will see benefits Zhang noted that Trump's trade deals often contain specific provisions designed to boost U.S. exports. The agreement with the European Union, for example, calls for European companies to purchase $750 billion worth of natural gas, oil and nuclear fuel from the U.S. over three years. Zhang said semiconductor firms and military contractors could also see bumps in trade. Some U.S. farmers could also see a potential upside, Zhang said. As part of its trade deal, Vietnam agreed to purchase $2 billion in U.S. agricultural products over three years, including corn, wheat and soybeans, according to the International Trade Council. But Zhang cautioned that agricultural agreements tend to be short-lived. Over the longer term, the uncertainty over tariffs could cause countries like China to back away from U.S. agricultural markets and look for other partners, Zhang said. Food and drink prices will climb The tariffs will almost certainly result in higher food prices, according to an analysis released this week by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. The U.S. simply doesn't make enough of some products, like bananas or coffee, to satisfy demand. Fish, beer and liquor are also likely to see price hikes, the foundation said. Conagra Brands, the maker of Hunt's canned tomatoes, Reddi-wip and other brands, said in July that tariffs – particularly the 50% tax on imported aluminum and steel -- will add $200 million annually to its costs. The company said it's shifting some of its suppliers but also expects to raise prices. Ben Aneff, managing partner at Tribeca Wine Merchants and president of the U.S. Wine Trade Alliance, said that beginning Friday shoppers will see prices rise 20% to 25% at his store and others because of tariffs and the declining value of the dollar. 'Nobody can afford to eat the tariff. It gets passed on," Aneff said. Aneff said shoppers haven't felt the impact from higher duties until now because distributors and retailers accelerated shipments from France and other European countries earlier in the year. But with the tariff rate bumping to 15%, Aneff expects European wine prices to jump 30% in September. Clothing and shoe prices are already creeping up Ninety-seven percent of clothing and shoes sold in the U.S. are imported, primarily from Asia, according to the American Apparel & Footwear Association said. China leads the pack, but companies have been shifting more of their sourcing to Vietnam, Indonesia and India. And prices are already on the rise. Steve Lamar, president and CEO of of the trade group, declined to estimate price increases because he said the situation continues to be in flux. He also said shoppers will see higher costs from tariffs play out in other ways starting this fall. Companies may drop products because they're too expensive or reduce promotions, he said. Matt Priest, president and CEO of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, estimates prices for shoes are starting to go up for the back-to-school shopping season. He estimates price increases in the 5% to 10% range. Lululemon said in June that price increases will be modest and apply to a small portion of its assortment, while Ralph Lauren said it would be hiking prices for this fall and next spring to offset tariffs. Bjorn Gulden, CEO of Germany-based Athletic wear giant Adidas, told investors Wednesday that the company is reviewing different price increases for products for the U.S. but no decision has been made. 'Tariffs (are) nothing else than a cost,' he said. 'And regardless of what people are saying, you can't just throw a cost away. It's there.' Car prices hold steady — so far Some automakers have already raised prices to counteract tariffs. Luxury sports car maker Ferrari said Thursday it was waiting for more details of Trump's trade deal with the European Union before scaling back a 10% surcharge it put in place in April on most vehicles in the U.S. But for the most part, automakers haven't been raising prices as they wait for details of the trade deals. Kelley Blue Book, which monitors car pricing, said the average U.S. new car cost $48,907 in June, which was up just $108 from May. But that could change. General Motors said last week that the impact of the tariffs could get more pronounced in the third quarter of this year. GM has estimated that the tariffs will cost it $4 billion to $5 billion this year. ___
Reuters
23 minutes ago
- Reuters
Trump's 50% Brazil coffee tariff expected to rejig trade, send more beans to China
NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Trump administration's steep import tariff on Brazilian coffee looks set to reshuffle trade routes for beans from the world's top grower and exporter, benefiting China and incentivizing traders to look for indirect routes into the U.S. A 50% tariff on some Brazilian products, including coffee, will begin on August 6, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday. The move will challenge commodities traders and Brazilian coffee exporters to find buyers for the roughly 8 million bags sold to U.S. coffee processors every year. At around 25 million bags per year, the U.S. is the world's largest coffee consumer. A third of that comes from Brazil, through bilateral trade that was worth $4.4 billion in the 12 months ended in June. "The global coffee trade flow will be reshuffled. The pain will be felt from Sao Paulo to Seattle - from origin to roaster, to cafe chains, grocers, and morning commuters," said Michael J. Nugent, a senior U.S. coffee broker and owner of MJ Nugent & Co. The possible rerouting of the massive volume Brazil usually sends to the U.S., similar to the entire production of high-quality coffee grower Ethiopia, could benefit a major Trump rival: China. More Brazilian beans may be bound for China because of trade ties between the two nations, both members of the BRICS group, and after the first Trump administration disrupted trade, said Marc Schonland, an independent advisor to the U.S. coffee industry. Coffee consumption is surging in China as young professionals drop tea to seek a higher caffeine boost. Brazil is its main supplier, exporting 538,000 bags to China in the first half of 2025, data from exporters association Cecafe showed. Coffee consumption has grown around 20% per year for the last 10 years in China and per capita coffee consumption doubled in the last 5 years, according to industry data. More Brazilian beans could also head to the European Union, where they face no tariffs, said Logan Allender, head of coffee at U.S. roaster and distributor Atlas Coffee Club. Trade experts see possibilities for exporters to try to dodge the tariffs by exporting Brazilian coffee to other countries, and from there to the U.S. "It will add a bit of logistics costs, but brings down the (tariff) effect to a max 10% to 15%," said Debajyoti Bhattacharyya, commercial vice president at agricultural commodities firm AFEX Ltd., adding that countries such as Mexico or Panama could be used for the stopovers. "Without a strong traceable supply chain, tariffs are meaningless. I mean, we can't stop oil from flowing, why would coffee?" he said. Senior soft commodities analyst and independent consultant Judith Ganes said the fact the U.S. left coffee out of an extensive exemption list of Brazilian products suggests Trump is using the product as a bargaining chip in his political quarrel with Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Trump has said Brazil's Supreme Court is treating his ally, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, unfairly. The U.S. sanctioned Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes on Wednesday. Traders said coffee that is loaded in Brazil by August 6 can enter the U.S. without paying the tariff up until October 6. William Kapos, CEO at Downeast Coffee Roasters, a large coffee processor in the U.S. East Coast, said he is rushing to ship Brazilian coffee he has already purchased out of South America before that deadline next week. Going forward, Kapos said he will look to buy coffee from Central America and Africa to replace Brazilian beans. "But everybody will do that, so price-wise it is going to be a squeeze on U.S. buyers," he said.
