Opinion: Why is the PQ resonating with so many Quebecers right now?

Montreal Gazette

a day ago

Opinion
The results of the Arthabaska byelection confirm what polls have been saying for months: a vast majority of Quebecers want the Legault government out. On Monday, only 7.2 per cent of voters gave their support to the Coalition Avenir Québec candidate. Even Premier François Legault conceded that this poor outcome is an indication of Quebecers' discontent.
The next general election will be held a little over a year from now — Oct. 5, 2026 — and it is easy to predict what the main theme will be: change. Quebecers will wonder which party best represents this ever-important political value. In Arthabaska, as in the two previous byelections won by the Parti Québécois, voters concluded that the separatist party is the most credible alternative to the CAQ. Why?
One reason is that, considering his relative youth (he is 48) and the fact that he has never been in government, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon personifies change. His style of direct, sincere, thoughtful politics also differs from the stuff of many career politicians.
Veteran pollster Jean-Marc Léger noted on Tuesday that 30 per cent of Parti Québécois voters are federalists. Instead of voting Liberal as would be expected, those Quebecers choose to support the PQ because Plamondon's party is perceived as the one with the best chance of winning and therefore, of sending the CAQ government packing.
In Monday's byelection, the Quebec Liberal Party had a strong local candidate. They also, finally, have a new, well-known leader. Despite those assets, Chantale Marchand received only 9.3 per cent of the byelection votes. Clearly, voters in Arthabaska did not consider the QLP as the party through which one could express their longing for a fresh start. This is a weakness that leader Pablo Rodriguez will have to address quickly if he wants his party to be competitive come October 2026.
Another reason for the PQ's success is the rapid decline of Québec solidaire. No one expected QS to win in Arthabaska, a traditionally conservative riding. Still, in the 2022 general election, they had obtained 9.2 per cent of Arthabaska votes ; on Monday, their score fell to an anemic 1.5 per cent. Voters, specifically young voters, who were attracted to the societal changes proposed by the leftist party may have switched their vote to the PQ, notwithstanding some major differences between the positions of the 'péquistes' and that of the 'solidaires' on immigration, for example.
After the 2022 election, some commentators predicted the death of the party founded by René Lévesque. To Plamondon's credit, he succeeded in bringing the PQ back from the brink. His commitment to hold a third referendum on sovereignty was thought to be an obstacle to growing the party's base. That has not happened yet, and it remains to be seen whether things will change when Quebecers are called upon to choose the province's next government instead of simply voting for their local MNA.
In his victory speech Monday night, Plamondon emphasized concrete issues that concern Quebecers — ineffective public services, the increase in the cost of living, the worrisome state of the province's finances, uncontrolled immigration — rather than separation. Is this the beginning of a strategic turn where, even if still committed to hold a third referendum on independence, the PQ will first and foremost promise a competent government ('un bon government'), as they have often done in the past?
Of course, a lot can happen in the next year. However, for now, Plamondon and his party are clearly being perceived by many Quebecers as the most credible alternative to the Legault government. Strategically, that is a very enviable position to hold.
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