What Nigel Farage gets right (and wrong) about crime stats

Telegraph

5 days ago

'Britain is lawless,' Nigel Farage declared last week as his Reform Party launched a six-week-long campaign on crime.
Painting a picture of a country in desperate need of tougher justice, he argued Britain was 'facing societal collapse' due to the scale of the problem, claiming total crime is now 50 per cent higher than it was in the 1990s.
But not everyone agrees with his assessment. Indeed, Farage's claims have seen him become embroiled in a war of statistics, most notably with Fraser Nelson, the former editor of The Spectato r. On Monday, he took aim at the Reform leader, accusing him of peddling a 'narrative … in spite of the facts'.
Farage isn't fighting with me.
He's fighting with 25 years of crime data, hospital A&E admissions data and more.
But perhaps it's a test: can he get this Lawless Britain narrative going - in spite of the facts? https://t.co/UatHrJCoLF
— Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) July 28, 2025
Nelson's view, which conflicts with the one articulated by Farage, is that the rate of crime in Britain is near record lows.
The reality, however, is more nuanced than either man presents. While it's true that Britain is far less crime-ridden than 30 years ago, it is currently in the midst of a 'petty' crime wave – one which leaves victims feeling powerless and abandoned by the authorities.
Nelson's argument is based on the Crime Survey for England and Wales – a study carried out by the Office for National Statistics since the 1980s.
Through interviews with more than 30,000 people, it attempts to capture the true amount of crime in society, whether or not it is reported to police.
It shows that since the mid-1990s, the estimated number of crimes, excluding fraud, in England and Wales has plummeted from 19.8 million to 4.6 million a year. Statistically, based solely on the survey (which has not historically included fraud, cases of which have exploded in recent years), Nelson is correct in saying that crime has plummeted.
Farage, for his part, has called the survey 'discredited as a means of measuring crime'. This is unfair, although as he pointed out at a press conference on Monday, it certainly has its flaws.
For example, the survey doesn't ask respondents about crimes against businesses, such as shoplifting, and those undertaking the research only interview households – effectively excluding crime-vulnerable groups such as the homeless, tourists or students living in halls.
Researchers have also faced issues in recent years with uptake, and certain crimes – such as sexual or domestic abuse – are difficult to measure this way.
However, the survey does have a consistent methodology, meaning it is a helpful tool in monitoring trends of the most common, victim-based crimes, from criminal damage to pickpocketing.
In many ways, the fall in offending it appears to have captured isn't overly surprising.
Within the overall reduction of crime, around 40 per cent comes solely from a downturn in burglaries and car theft. That may in turn be attributable to the fact that the past 30 years has witnessed an explosion in personal security technology, from CCTV cameras to Ring doorbells to car alarms and cheaper, better door locks.
A further 25 per cent of the fall in offences is accounted for by a reduction in violent crime, which includes everything from serious physical assault to being abused in the street.
Historically, a large proportion of this type of crime has involved alcohol. Its decline may have much to do with young adults now drinking less, pub numbers being in decline and nightclubs facing tighter regulation on security measures.
Farage, for his part, prefers to cite police recorded crime when making the point that Britain has become 'lawless'.
'There are some significant rises in crimes of all kinds, particularly crimes against the person,' he told reporters last week.
That is true. But statistics recorded by police don't actually show overall rates of crime increasing. In fact, excluding fraud, they show offences to be at a four-year low and comfortably below levels recorded in the early 2000s. And even when fraud is included, figures are still down year on year since 2023.
Although the level of crime recorded by police is indeed higher now than it was in the 1990s, it is not 50 per cent higher, as Farage has stated. Compared with 1997, the year with the lowest rate of offences in that decade, overall crime has risen by 38 per cent.
Historic trends in police recorded crime are also impacted by the fact that the police are getting better at recording crime. It is easier for victims to log offences and people are increasingly willing to report certain types of crime, particularly sexual and domestic abuse.
For example, reported rape offences have increased from 16,000 to 72,000 since 2010. Five years ago, coercive control did not exist as an offence; now police log some 50,000 cases each year.
But where Farage is undoubtedly correct is that some types of crime are surging.
There were more than 530,643 shoplifting offences – equivalent to three thefts every minute of the working day – in the year ending March 2025, according to figures released last week. This was a 20 per cent increase from the previous 12 months and by far the highest annual figure ever recorded.
That data is not recorded in the crime survey – a fact Farage has been keen to point out.
Police recorded crime also picks up on the record amount of theft-from-the-person offences, which cover pickpocketing and bag snatching. There were more than 150,000 such crimes last year.
Unlike shoplifting, this type of crime does also feature in the Crime Survey, which has 'snatch theft' (picture criminals on mopeds grabbing phones) at a 20-year high and personal theft at its highest level in a decade.
Together, both sources of data do indeed paint a picture of a petty theft crime wave sweeping the nation.
The two datasets diverge when it comes to violent crime, however. Police record that violent crime has been heavily influenced by more reporting of offences such as stalking and harassment. The Crime Survey is a less reliable measure of these types of offence, but effective at capturing the extent of less serious violent crimes, such as affray.
Certain 'high-harm' crimes are undoubtedly better recorded through the police's own figures – and have also seen recent surges. Knife crime, for example, has jumped back to almost 50,000 cases annually over the past few years.
The frequent visceral images we see of the victims of this kind of crime also add to the sense of lawlessness of which Farage speaks.
Ultimately, the differing sources Nelson and Farage cite are both valid when interpreting crime. But only when looked at together and, most importantly, when asking 'what type of crime is on the rise' do we get the full picture.
Farage's argument goes beyond statistics, however, and points to the broader sense that victims are being failed.
'Over the past 20 years, witnessing and experiencing crime has become normalised, with Britons feeling helpless and an overworked police force struggling to keep up,' he said last week.
Ironically, the Crime Survey (which also asks people about their views on policing and personal safety) backs him up on this.
In 2024, for the first time in the survey's history, fewer than 50 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with police performance. Just 12 per cent regularly saw 'bobbies on the beat' in their neighbourhood, a fall of two thirds from the figure recorded in 2010.
And the proportion of people feeling like local crime is increasing is now at its highest on record.
Moreover, the police's ability to solve crime has plummeted over the course of a decade. Overall, just 7.3 per cent of offences result in a charge, compared with 15 per cent in 2015. Telegraph analysis shows that, for personal theft, the figure falls to just 0.7 per cent. Fewer than 2 per cent of bike thefts conclude with an offender being charged.
All the while, prisons are at capacity, with more lenient sentences being used in an attempt to free up space. Last year, the proportion of people sent to jail after being convicted for possession of a knife slumped to a record low.