These large-caps have ‘strong buy' & ‘buy' recos and an upside potential of more than 20%
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Mint
7 hours ago
- Mint
Gold price rises 200% in six years. How expensive it may become in next 5 years?
Gold prices have delivered stellar returns to investors in 2025. The precious yellow metal on MCX has ascended over 30 per cent, other risky assets like silver surged nearly 35%, and the Nifty 50 index has risen around 4.65 per cent. The BSE Sensex has given around 3.75 per cent, while some Sensex heavyweights like Reliance share price have generated a little over 14 per cent in 2025. Nifty 50 heavyweight HDFC Bank shares have surged around 12.50 per cent. So, gold and silver have outshone other risky assets by a massive margin in YTD. The precious bullions have dominated the market in the long term, too. In six years, the MCX gold rate has risen from around ₹ 32,000 per 10 gm to around 97,800 per 10 gm, delivering a rise of over 200 per cent. According to commodity market experts, gold prices are expected to dominate the list of risky assets. The bears may deliver at least 40 per cent in the next five years, whereas the bulls may become expensive by over 125 per cent. Speaking on the gold price rally in recent years, Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, said, "Gold has long held deep emotional and financial value in Indian households. It has also gained prominence as a strategic asset among global central banks in recent years. This shift has accelerated over the past two years, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which led to the freezing of a significant portion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. As geopolitical tensions rise and tariff disputes continue, central banks increasingly turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a steady rise in its price." Santosh Meena of Swastika Inestmart said several key factors drive this renewed interest in gold. One of the most notable is the weakening confidence in the US dollar. Many central banks are diversifying their reserves to reduce dependency on the dollar, and gold is emerging as the preferred alternative. Another major driver is the rising US debt-to-GDP ratio, which raises concerns about the long-term stability of the dollar and further enhances gold's appeal as a store of value. The overall geopolitical instability climate also pushes institutional and retail investors toward gold as a reliable hedge against uncertainty. On why gold prices have risen in the last six years, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said, "Gold has delivered outstanding returns of nearly 200% over the past six years, rallying from around ₹ . 34,200 in June 2019 to approximately ₹ . 97,800 per 10 grams in 2025. This exceptional performance has been driven by global macroeconomic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, ultra-loose monetary policies, geopolitical tensions, and heightened financial market uncertainty." The SS WealthStreet expert said that the outbreak of the pandemic unleashed massive economic disruption and led to unprecedented monetary and fiscal interventions. Central banks across the globe slashed interest rates to near zero. They rolled out large-scale quantitative easing programs, injecting liquidity into the system and fueling inflation and currency debasement concerns. Simultaneously, real interest rates turned negative, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Governments deployed aggressive stimulus measures, further expanding the money supply and reinforcing gold's role as a hedge against systemic risk. Sugandha Sachdeva went on to add that a string of geopolitical and financial flashpoints has further reinforced gold's appeal: 1] Russia-Ukraine war (Feb 2022); 2] US banking turmoil (SVB, Credit Suisse – early 2023); 3] Middle East conflict (Oct 2023); 4] Escalating US tariff war under President Trump (2025); 5] Record Central bank gold purchases; and 6] Persistent de-dollarisation efforts globally. "These tailwinds have propelled gold to fresh record highs of over ₹ 1,00,178 per 10 gm in 2025, and the environment remains supportive for structurally elevated prices over the long term," said Sugandha Sachdeva, adding, "While past returns may not be repeated at the same scale, multiple macroeconomic and structural forces point to further upside in gold over the next five years. The continued central bank purchases, strong ETF inflows, de-dollarisation drive, and rising debt levels in the US all point towards prices being meaningfully higher from current levels." On whether gold will be able to deliver this stellar performance again, "The ongoing strategic accumulation of gold by global central banks is likely to be a key pillar that would provide further strength to gold prices. Gold now comprises almost 20% of total central bank reserves against the US dollar's declining share, down from 73% in 2001 to 58% in 2025. Gold has emerged as a key beneficiary of central banks' diversification efforts. A shift towards a multi-polar currency world is eroding the dollar's dominance. Volatility in currency markets makes gold more attractive as a stable reserve asset. Furthermore, burgeoning public debt levels, particularly in the US, raise long-term fiscal risks and erode confidence in fiat currencies, making gold a crucial hedge against currency debasement." Sugaqndha said that ongoing and potential future conflicts (including economic, political, and military) will continue to elevate safe-haven demand. Beyond institutional buying, new channels of demand are emerging, such as China's insurance sector reportedly allocating 1% of its Assets Under Management (AUM) to gold, signifying growing institutional interest. ETF inflows and investor allocations toward non-yielding assets could remain strong if real yields stay suppressed. Moreover, a structurally weak rupee amplifies domestic gold price performance. Sugandha Sachdeva of SS Wealthstreet advised investors to continue investing in gold: "Gold continues to prove its mettle as a long-term store of value and a portfolio diversifier. Amid ongoing global uncertainties, rising global debt, elevated geopolitical risks, currency volatility, and policy-induced distortions, the yellow metal will likely remain a core hedge against systemic risks. Investors may consider systematic accumulation during price corrections and hold a strategic allocation over the next five years to enhance risk-adjusted returns." Regarding how much gold may become expensive in the next five years, Sugandha Sachdeva said, "Gold remains subject to intermittent corrections due to changing interest rate expectations or temporary strength in the US dollar. However, the major floor level is expected around ₹ 75,000-72000 per 10 gm, providing a strong downside cushion to prices. However, the gold price pattern suggests around ₹ 1,05,000 per 10 gm for the year, while for the next 5 years it could trend towards around ₹ 1,35,000 per gm to anywhere around ₹ 1,40,000 per 10 gm." However, Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart believes that stellar gold price returns may continue in the next five years. Geopolitical tension and a trade war are expected to keep the demand for gold as a safe haven intact. "In terms of performance, gold has delivered an impressive 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the Indian market over the past five years. If this trajectory continues, gold prices could reach ₹ 2,25,000 per 10 grams within five years. While short-term volatility is natural, the broader structural case for gold remains intact, supported by sustained central bank buying, currency debasement concerns, and the asset's historical role as a financial haven," Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart concluded. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Economic Times
7 hours ago
- Economic Times
NephroPlus files DRHP with Sebi, to raise Rs 353 crore via fresh issue
(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price
Economic Times
7 hours ago
- Economic Times
Dalal Street Week Ahead: Sideways consolidation likely to persist amid global trade uncertainty
The Nifty experienced a week of range-bound trading, closing slightly lower with a 0.53% loss. Facing resistance near the upper edge of a rising channel, the index shows signs of fatigue despite holding above its 20-week moving average. Traders should remain cautious, focusing on stock-specific strategies and protecting gains, as a decisive breakout is needed for a clear directional move. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The Nifty traded in a largely range-bound manner through the week, oscillating within a well-defined band and ending the week on a negative note. After a strong opening, the index saw selling pressure at higher levels, remaining under check within a narrow range of 25246–24806 spanning 440 points before settling slightly lower. Meanwhile, the India VIX declined modestly by 1.03% on a weekly basis, closing at the week, Nifty ended with a minor loss of 131.40 points, or (-0.53%.) The index continues to face strong overhead resistance as it struggles near the upper edge of a rising channel formation. Despite recently reclaiming ground above the 20-week moving average, Nifty is showing signs of fatigue as it approaches the upper Bollinger price behavior signals that the broader structure remains cautiously buoyant but not decisively trending. The recent rally is slowing, and unless a breakout occurs above the rising trendline resistance, the index may remain vulnerable to mean-reverting moves. The zone of 25150–25200 continues to be a critical resistance area, while 24600–24450 becomes an important near-term support range.A decisive move beyond either of these levels may trigger a directional move. Heading into the coming week, markets may see a cautious or flat opening unless there is a strong global trigger. Uncertainty persists around the US trade deal, with the August 1 deadline approaching the upside, resistance is likely to be found at the 25150 and 25400 levels, while supports are expected at 24600 and weekly RSI stands at 54.98 and remains neutral, showing no divergence against price. The weekly MACD remains in a buy mode, trading above the signal line, indicating residual bullish momentum. No significant candlestick reversal pattern is observed on the weekly a pattern perspective, Nifty continues to oscillate within a rising channel that began in March 2023. While it briefly breached the lower edge in late April, it has since reclaimed that trendline and is now testing the upper bounds. The price remains above its 20-, 50-, and 100-week moving averages, reinforcing the intermediate until a breakout above the channel occurs, the index is likely to witness rotational or sideways movement with the mentioned levels acting as the current structure and lack of a decisive breakout, traders should stay selective and avoid aggressive positioning. The prudent approach would be to protect existing gains and avoid chasing prices near resistance. A stock-specific strategy with tight stop losses would work better in the current scenario. The broader approach for the coming week should be one of cautious participation, staying mindful of key levels and awaiting a confirmed directional our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Realty, Media, Metal, Midcap 100, and PSU Bank Indices are inside the leading quadrant. This group is likely to continue to outperform the broader markets Financial Services, Energy, Bank Nifty Index is inside the weakening quadrant. The FMCG, Consumption, Healthcare, and Pharma Indices are inside the laggingquadrant. However, except FMCG, the rest are showing improvement in their relative IT Index is seeing a slowdown in its relative momentum while staying inside the Improving quadrant. The Auto Index is located inside this quadrant, along with theConsumer Durable Index, which has just moved into the improving Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals. Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of and and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at
