China sends dual message with national flag on disputed South China Sea reef, targeting rivals and citizens

CNA

30-04-2025

SINGAPORE: China's national flag was recently unfurled on a disputed reef in the South China Sea by its uniformed troops, an act broadcast by state media in what analysts believe to be a first public display in decades of what had previously been quiet actions.
In contrast with how Chinese fishermen, maritime militia, and even civilian groups have planted flags on disputed reefs, rocks, and islands in the contentious waterway since the 1990s, observers say China's latest move is a pointed show of control aimed at reflecting its readiness to confront potential escalation amid rising tensions with the United States.
They add that the move carried out on Sandy Cay - a string of three uninhabited sandbars near a Philippine military outpost in the disputed Spratly Islands - also aims to reassure domestic audiences that Beijing remains firm on core interests such as sovereignty - and to portray strength as external pressure mounts.
Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported on April 25 that its coast guard had landed on Sandy Cay 'as part of maritime control operations to assert Beijing's sovereignty'.
The broadcaster said the coast guard had 'implemented control' over what it refers to as Tiexian Reef, part of the Sandy Cay feature. Footage showed four personnel in black combat gear holding the Chinese national flag after arriving on the reef aboard an inflatable dinghy.
On April 28, the Philippine Coast Guard released a photo of its personnel raising the national flag on the disputed reef. It said the mission was carried out pre-dawn the day before - a move seen as a direct rebuttal to China's sovereignty claim.
The developments come amid the largest-ever joint military exercises between the US and the Philippines in nearby waters. They also follow a recent visit to Asia by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who pledged to strengthen defence ties with Manila and 'restore deterrence' in the face of what Washington views as growing Chinese assertiveness in the region.
"For now, it's mostly symbolic. It's very low level, petty provocations, from (both sides) ... It has not reached a stage where it is alarming, yet," said Adib Zalkapli, Managing Director of Viewfinder Global Affairs and a geopolitical analyst specialising in the Indo-Pacific.
But it's also a sign of China drawing a line in the sand to state its firm position over the territorial disputes and external pressures, said other analysts.
'It's a warning for the Philippines (against) further developing closer defence relations with the US … It's a signal to say, look, this is what we can do to counter you,' said Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow in the Southeast Asia programme at the Lowy Institute.
CALIBRATED CONFRONTATION
China claims nearly the entire South China Sea, a position that overlaps with those of several countries and territories, and goes against a 2016 international tribunal ruling, which rejected Beijing's entitlements over the disputed islands and waters.
Sandy Cay lies near Thitu Island, the biggest and most strategically significant outpost held by the Philippines in the Spratly Islands. It is among the island chains, reefs and rocks in the South China Sea where China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan maintain overlapping territorial claims.
On April 29, Chinese state media Global Times released images of a coast guard operation at Tiexian Reef, claiming it was part of efforts to exercise 'sovereign jurisdiction'.
The photos showed Chinese coast guard officers displaying the Chinese national flag, and clearing debris such as plastic bottles from the reef flat.
The report claimed that a group of Philippine personnel 'illegally' landed on the reef despite repeated Chinese warnings, prompting Chinese officers to 'conduct on-site verification and enforcement measures in line with the law'.
Beijing's latest move was likely timed for symbolic impact, coinciding with the ongoing Philippines-US Balikatan exercises and the approaching Philippine midterm elections, said Abdul Rahman of the Lowy Institute.
While raising a flag does not amount to a formal seizure or legal claim of sovereignty, he noted that the reef's location remains strategically important due to its close proximity to Philippine-held territory.
'If the Chinese were to build certain military infrastructure there, they could closely monitor activity on nearby Philippine islands,' he said.
'It would also allow them to project their presence much closer to Philippine-held territory. From a military standpoint, the reef holds clear strategic value.'
Abdul Rahman said China's latest move in the South China Sea presents an early test for US President Donald Trump's administration, which has vowed to push back against Beijing's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific with a more assertive regional posture.
The observer pointed to Manila's planned purchase of US-made Typhon missile launchers and ongoing talks to acquire F-16 fighter jets as 'among the key factors' that prompted Beijing to respond with what he described as symbolic but calibrated actions.
'China, through flexing its muscle, is sending a message to both Manila and Washington,' he said. 'It's saying: despite your new defence deals and closer military cooperation, the reality on the ground remains unchanged - and that is, Beijing can still impose its will over disputed areas.'
China's latest action at Sandy Cay may be part of a broader strategy to expand its footprint in the West Philippine Sea - the term the Philippines uses for parts of the South China Sea within its exclusive economic zone - through incremental moves, said Don McLain Gill, a Manila-based analyst and lecturer at the Department of International Studies, De La Salle University.
In an April 29 commentary on the Singapore-based platform ThinkChina, Gill described the act as part of Beijing's 'salami slicing' approach to maritime claims.
'Sandy Cay lies around ten nautical miles away from Subi or Zamora Reef, which China has illegally occupied and converted into a military base with an airstrip,' he wrote.
'Occupying the sand bar would allow Beijing to justify its claims over Subi Reef and eventually serve as a stepping stone to push further into Pag-asa Island, which houses Philippine military facilities and is home to about 250 Filipino residents.'
China's 'salami slicing' in the South China Sea, as described by some observers, refers to a strategy of advancing territorial claims through a succession of small, calibrated moves. Each action avoids triggering armed conflict, but together they steadily tip the balance of control toward Beijing and alter the status quo over time.
One example often cited by analysts is China's development of artificial islands, which began around 2014. Initially framed by Beijing as serving civilian and public service functions, construction activities on features such as Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratlys later expanded to include airstrips, radar installations, and missile systems.
While China maintains these are defensive in nature, the steady build-up has raised concerns about the long-term militarisation of disputed areas.
Another example often cited by analysts as part of the 'salami slicing' approach, is the use of coast guard vessels and maritime militia to reinforce claims in disputed waters without direct confrontation.
At Second Thomas Shoal, Chinese vessels have disrupted Philippine resupply missions with water cannons and close-range manoeuvres. While Beijing frames these as legitimate law enforcement within its claimed waters, analysts see them as calibrated efforts to constrain access and shift control - without provoking a direct military clash.
Gill noted that since 2017, Chinese Coast Guard vessels and maritime militia have stepped up their presence around Sandy Cay, including forming a de facto barrier to prevent Filipino fishing boats from accessing the area.
He added that in 2019, these same forces were involved in large-scale swarming operations near Pag-asa Island - actions he described as instruments of China's gradual expansionism in the region.
In a move seen as a calculated demonstration of military strength, China's aircraft carrier Shandong sailed through waters north of the Philippines twice within a week - a rare occurrence coinciding with ongoing joint military drills between the United States and the Philippines, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Tuesday (Apr 30).
The Shandong, accompanied by a flotilla of destroyers, frigates, and support vessels, was first detected last Tuesday about 185km northwest of Burgos in northern Luzon, the Philippines' main island.
Its transit through the Luzon Strait - a critical waterway between Taiwan and the Philippines - has been widely interpreted by analysts as a signal of Beijing's intent to assert freedom of movement and challenge US-aligned military activity in the region.
The timing, just as Manila and Washington kicked off their Balikatan exercise featuring complex combat simulations and the deployment of advanced weaponry such as anti-ship missile systems, appeared deliberate, said analysts.
They added that the deployment reflects China's broader strategic objective of pressing beyond the so-called 'first island chain' - a network of US-friendly territories such as Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines - seen as central to its aim to contain Beijing.
'The deployment was certainly a show of force in light of Balikatan when they are conducting drills related to anti-ship techniques, and this was meant to signal that whatever the Filipinos and Americans are doing to conduct sea denial in these passageways, the (Chinese) navy will still force its way through in a conflict,' said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
FEAR OF FURTHER ESCALATION
Adib of Viewfinder Global Affairs noted that the prominent coverage on Chinese state media has given the incident greater symbolic weight and an air of official endorsement.
'The timing is also notable,' Adib noted.
'China is under growing pressure from the US, especially with fresh tariffs being imposed. By highlighting this act of sovereignty, Beijing is also addressing a domestic audience - reinforcing the message that, despite mounting external challenges, national interests and territorial claims remain a top priority.'
Abdul Rahman of Lowy Institute agreed that the move also plays to a domestic audience, particularly as China grapples with mounting economic headwinds.
However, he cautioned against drawing a direct link between developments in the South China Sea and Beijing's escalating trade tensions with Washington.
'States generally separate economic issues from geostrategic competition,' he said.
'Rather than being a direct response to US tariffs, this is more about reassuring the Chinese public that Beijing remains proactive in asserting its position against the Philippines in contested waters.'
The dispute over Sandy Cay has added fresh strain to already tense relations between the Philippines and China, said analysts.
While China has not seized the disputed reef in any substantive way, further unilateral actions - such as deploying troops or constructing permanent facilities - could compel the Philippines to respond, potentially heightening the risk of conflict, said Adib.
'It's important to note that China hasn't taken such steps yet, the flag-raising remains symbolic for now,' he said.
'But the fact that it was able to land on the reef shows it has the capability to take more assertive actions if it chooses to. That in itself sends a message to the Philippines.'
Abdul Rahman echoed similar concerns, pointing to fears of a repeat of the 1995 Mischief Reef episode - when China's construction of initial stilted structures triggered a sharp response from the Philippines, leading to a cycle of escalating actions between the two countries.
Asked whether the Philippines might be pushed by the US to adopt a more assertive posture in the South China Sea - potentially fuelling further escalation - Abdul Rahman said such a scenario remains unlikely.
'In my conversations with Philippine officials, it's clear their approach to the South China Sea is largely self-directed. They're cautious about appearing overly influenced by Washington,' he said.
'I don't see this as an extension of US efforts to economically contain China.'
Under the current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr administration, the Philippines has adopted a more assertive strategy to defend its territorial claims in the West Philippine Sea, according to Gill from De La Salle University.
He argued that while China has yet to establish full control over Sandy Cay, Manila must remain vigilant and sustain its presence in strategically important waters.
Coordinated and recurring joint patrols with defence partners, he added, are critical to pushing back against Beijing's attempts to unilaterally shape the status quo.
Despite China's assertive moves in the South China Sea, its broader relations with Southeast Asian countries remain largely cordial and grounded in mutual interests, noted Adib Zalkapli.
'This latest development also comes on the heels of Xi Jinping's outreach visits to Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia,' he said, referring to the Chinese president.
'It reflects a calibrated strategy - Beijing wants to maintain friendly ties where possible, while showing it won't compromise on what it considers its core interests, especially sovereignty over disputed waters.'