Mint Primer: The monsoon outlook and its impact on India
After advancing over Kerala and parts of south and west India in record time, the monsoon is now stalled. What has affected their progress, and how will this impact various parts of the country? Mint explains.
Also read: Southwest Monsoon to advance over Central and adjoining East India around 14 June: IMD
What happened to the monsoon this year?
Monsoon rains reached Kerala and the southern parts of the Indian mainland in end-May. This was the earliest onset of the rains since 2009. Monsoon reached Mumbai around the same time, the earliest onset in 35 years. Heavy showers in May and early June have already caused flooding in Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru and northeastern states where rains triggered landslides. Pre-monsoon showers in Delhi led to the city's wettest May in over a hundred years, flooding the streets and bringing life to a standstill. The government's India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a normal monsoon this year for the country.
So, why has its progress stalled?
Weak weather conditions have stalled the monsoons in the western region at Mumbai and in eastern India near West Bengal, IMD officials told media outlets. Low pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea draw southwest monsoon winds towards the north, bringing rains all over the country. These systems were stronger than usual last month, prompting the early onset of the rains. Now, both have weakened, leaving north India and the interiors of the Deccan plateau dry. This has caused heat waves in north and northwestern India; Delhi recorded its hottest day of the year yet while the intensity of rains in Mumbai has reduced.
Also read: Indian Market Outlook: HSBC MF stays bullish on India amid growth revival and fair valuations
How will the rains behave, going ahead?
The IMD says monsoon will likely continue their normal trajectory from this week onwards because western disturbances and low pressure systems are building up over Bay of Bengal and northwest UP. Despite the delay, the monsoon is not late yet; rains cover central and north India between 15 and 30 June. However, heatwaves are predicted, too.
What's the general impact of early rains?
Heavy pre-monsoon rains caused major cities to flood across west, south, and northeast India, where landslides occurred. They also brought relief from record high temperatures and heat waves in Odisha, Jharkhand, UP and Rajasthan in March, a month earlier. While early rains help reduce the burden of heat, they also disrupt the growing and harvesting of crops in peninsular India, such as mango, banana, and onions. Besides, early rain hurt peak summer sales of consumer goods including air conditioners.
Also read: Delhi on IMD's orange alert for heatwave as Bengaluru, Mumbai brace for more rain; check weather forecast here
How will consumer demand be impacted?
India is struggling with a demand slowdown, especially in urban areas where prices are rising but incomes are not, forcing people to cut back on discretionary spending. Rural demand is doing better, giving hope to consumer and auto firms. But without normal rains farm incomes will suffer, denting the demand situation further. Already, firms like HUL, ITC, and Tata Consumer have reported tepid volume growth in FY25. These firms along with car-makers will need good rains to bring sales back on track.
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