The numbers behind the Pacers' 5 improbable NBA Playoff comebacks

New York Times

15 hours ago

The Indiana Pacers continue to be wizards of the comeback in the 2025 NBA playoffs. Tyrese Haliburton's game-winning jumper with 0.3 seconds left in Thursday's Game 1 of the NBA Finals was the latest in a series of shocking Indiana comebacks this postseason.
There are so many ways to demonstrate just how unexpected the Pacers have been. Historical firsts and crazy stats have not been hard to come by.
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For starters, the Pacers have trailed by 15 or more points in eight games this postseason. They have won five of those games. That means, so far throughout the playoffs, if you're a team leading the Pacers by 15 points, you've been more likely to blow that lead and lose than hang onto it and win.
Thursday's comeback was an NBA Finals first:
Pacers trailed by 9 with 2:52 to play. In play by play era (since start of 1997 playoffs), teams were 0-121 in NBA Finals when trailing by 7+ points in final 3:00 of 4th quarter or OT before tonight
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) June 6, 2025
Sure, that stat may sound super specific, but no team had ever come back from a seven-point deficit in the final three minutes of an NBA Finals game?! That doesn't sound like that impossible of a feat, yet it's just one notch on the Pacers' belt this playoffs.
Let's take a deeper look at those five comebacks and how unlikely they seemed at the Pacers' lowest point, mixing in live betting odds and ESPN's win probabilities.
This was the first of the Pacers' dramatics, and it involved two comebacks.
Indiana entered Game 5 with a 3-1 series lead, and Milwaukee was without Damian Lillard, so it seemed like it would be a routine win for the Pacers. Then the Bucks scored the first 13 points of the game and expanded that lead up to 20. The Pacers cut the lead to six by halftime and took the lead with nine minutes to go in the third quarter. It stayed close for the rest of regulation, where Haliburton had a game-tying dunk with 10 seconds left.
Things got real weird in overtime. The Bucks led by seven with 40 seconds left following an AJ Green free throw. Green missed the second free throw. The Pacers then closed the game with an Andrew Nembhard 3-pointer, a Nembhard steal, a Haliburton 3-point play, another Milwaukee turnover and then a Haliburton layup with 1.3 seconds left for the series win.
The stakes have gotten bigger since, but the insanity of that game-ending 8-0 run still makes it an all-timer.
The Pacers won Game 1 in Cleveland in relatively comfortable fashion, but the Cavs came out quickly and led Game 2 by 17 points after a quarter. That lead peaked at 20 twice, 35-15 early in the second quarter and 81-61 midway through the third.
Indiana got the lead into single digits with just under 10 minutes to go, but it was the final minute that left Cleveland fans thinking back to previous horrors in franchise history. Donovan Mitchell made a pair of free throws with 57 seconds left to put the Cavs up 119-112. Pascal Siakam even missed two free throws on Indiana's ensuing possession, but Aaron Nesmith dunked home an offensive rebound off the second miss.
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The rest played out eerily similarly to the end of Game 5 against Milwaukee: Cleveland turnover, Siakam layup, Cleveland turnover, before Haliburton was fouled with the Pacers trailing by three. He made the first free throw and was able to rebound his own miss on the second, leading to a game-winning 3-pointer with 1.1 seconds left.
Two absurd last-minute comebacks in three games, both ending in Haliburton game-winners, was already the talk of the playoffs, but we're not even halfway through.
Sorry, Cleveland fans, you're the only ones on this list twice (for now).
This was a more run-of-the-mill comeback. The Pacers fell behind by 19 in the second quarter, but used a 27-9 run to get back in the game before halftime. Indiana eventually pulled away, leading by as many as 12 points and holding the lead for the final 19 minutes of the game.
This 19-point comeback is ordinary by comparison, even when it resulted in a five-game series win against the East's No. 1 seed.
This is arguably the magnum opus of the group. The comeback against the Bucks had similarly long odds, but this one came in the Eastern Conference finals in Madison Square Garden.
New York and Indiana were neck and neck for three quarters until the Knicks gained daylight with a 14-0 run in the fourth that gave the Knicks a 108-92 lead with less than eight minutes left. The Pacers trailed by 14 with less than three minutes remaining and were down nine in the final minute until Nesmith channeled NBA Jam and was on fire. He drained three 3-pointers on three straight possessions to get Indiana within two.
Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby both split free throws, which led to a Haliburton jumpshot that will long live in the lore for both fan bases. Haliburton's choke gesture is likely to be the lasting image of the 2025 playoffs.
The Knicks almost recovered, leading by four in overtime and taking a lead in the final 40 seconds, but the Pacers had the answers. Of course they did.
The most recent comeback involved the smallest maximum deficit to overcome, but also feels just as shocking because of how highly regarded the Oklahoma City Thunder are. The Thunder won 68 games in the regular season and entered this series as one of the biggest favorites in NBA Finals history.
The Pacers didn't lead and were tied just once (10-10), right until the end. The Thunder built a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter and seemed to be in control throughout. Lee Corso must love this Indiana team because 'Not so fast, my friend,' can be a regular refrain.
Indiana inevitably came back despite trailing by nine with less than three minutes remaining and took its first lead with 0.3 seconds left on, what else, a Haliburton jumper.
If nothing else, Indiana has proven you should watch games until the end for the rest of the NBA Finals.
'With the growth and popularity of live betting, Indiana's late-game comebacks are keeping bettors locked in until the final buzzer — regardless of the score,' Johnny Avello, Director of Sports Operations at DraftKings, said.
(Photo of Tyrese Haliburton: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)