Pakistan issues high alert as seventh spell of monsoon rains set to intensify
Pakistan's government has reported over 300 deaths and 1,600 damaged houses due to the floods, heavy rain and other weather since June 26.
On Wednesday, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said 'widespread rain-wind/thundershower (with scattered heavy falls at times very heavy) is expected' in upper Punjab from Aug. 13 to 17, with showers spreading to most plains districts from Aug. 18 to 21.
Areas at risk include Murree, Galiyat, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Lahore, Sheikhupura, Sialkot, Narowal, Kasur, Faisalabad, and Sahiwal, among others.
'More rain-wind/thundershower is predicted in the country in coming days; monsoon activity is likely to intensify during the upcoming week,' the PDMA advisory said, citing the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Moist currents from the Bay of Bengal are forecast to strengthen from Aug. 17, with a westerly wave influencing upper parts of the country.
DG PDMA Punjab Irfan Ali Kathia instructed all commissioners and deputy commissioners to remain 'alert' and keep emergency control rooms staffed round the clock.
The agency warned of 'urban flooding in low-lying areas of Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore and Sialkot' and possible flash floods in rivers and hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan from Aug. 18 to 21.
Landslides are also possible in Murree and Galiyat, while heavy winds could damage weak structures, rooftops and power infrastructure.
Hydrological data from Aug. 13 showed low flood levels in the Indus River at Kalabagh, Tarbela and Chashma, and in the Chenab at Khanki, with normal flows in the Jhelum, Ravi and Sutlej. Mangla Dam was at 65 percent capacity and Tarbela at 96 percent, while Indian reservoirs were around 70 percent full.
Since late June, monsoon-related incidents in Punjab have killed 164 people, injured 582, damaged 216 homes and killed 121 livestock, according to PDMA records.
The agency urged the public to follow safety instructions, keep children away from rivers and canals, and avoid crossing flowing water during floods.
Pakistan's June–September monsoon brings around 70 percent of annual rainfall, but climate change is making seasonal patterns more erratic and intense. Scientists say warmer air holds more moisture, increasing the risk of extreme downpours, while glacial melt and poor drainage heighten flood vulnerability.
In 2022, record monsoon rains and glacial floods inundated a third of the country, killing at least 1,700 people and causing damage estimated at more than $30 billion.
Last week, a study by World Weather Attribution, a group of international scientists who study global warming's role in extreme weather, found that rainfall from June 24 to July 23 in Pakistan was 10 percent to 15 percent heavier because of climate change, leading to many building collapses in urban and rural Pakistan.
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