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Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
China's July exports top forecasts amid rush to meet Trump tariff deadline
(Corrects June export growth in paragraph 2 to 5.8% from 4.8%) BEIJING (Reuters) -China's exports beat forecasts in July, as manufacturers made the most of a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington to ship goods ahead of a looming deadline later this month. Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy rose 7.2% year-on-year in July, customs data showed on Thursday, beating a forecast 5.4% increase in a Reuters poll and June's 5.8% growth. Imports grew 4.1%, following a 1.1% rise in June. Economists had predicted a 1.0% fall. China is facing an August 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with the U.S. administration, after Beijing and Washington reached framework agreements in May and June to reduce non-tariff barriers such as rare earth minerals and technology to avoid further escalating their trade war. Without a deal, global supply chains could face renewed turmoil from U.S. duties snapping back to triple-digit levels that would amount to a bilateral trade embargo. Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was close to a trade deal with China and that he would meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping before the end of the year if the world's two largest economies could come to an agreement. China's July trade surplus narrowed to $98.24 billion from $114.77 billion in June. Separate data from the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis on Tuesday showed the U.S. trade gap with China shrank to its lowest in more than 21 years in June. Chinese government advisers are stepping up calls to make the household sector's contribution to broader economic growth a top priority at Beijing's upcoming five-year policy plan, as trade tensions and deflation threaten the outlook. And top leaders have vowed to step up regulation of aggressive price-cutting by Chinese companies that is pushing prices ever lower. But economists warn that reversing the current deflationary slump will be far more difficult than during the last round of supply-side reforms a decade ago, as the downturn now poses a broader threat to employment, which Chinese leaders have emphasised is a core component of social stability. Reaching an agreement with the United States — and with the European Union, which has accused China of producing and selling goods too cheaply — would give Chinese officials more room to advance their reform agenda. However, analysts expect little relief from Western trade pressures. Export growth is projected to slow sharply in the second half of the year, hurt by persistently high tariffs, President Trump's renewed crackdown on the rerouting of Chinese shipments and deteriorating relations with the EU.
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump's broad tariffs go into effect, just as economic pain is surfacing
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump was set to officially begin levying higher import taxes on dozens of countries Thursday, just as the economic fallout of his monthslong tariff threats has begun to create visible damage for the U.S. economy. The White House said that starting just after midnight that goods from more than 60 countries and the European Union would face tariff rates of 10% or higher. Products from the European Union, Japan and South Korea will be taxed at 15%, while imports from Taiwan, Vietnam and Bangladesh will be taxed at 20%. For places such as the EU, Japan and South Korea, Trump also expects them to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the U.S. 'I think the growth is going to be unprecedented,' Trump said Wednesday afternoon. He added that the U.S. was 'taking in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs,' but he couldn't provide a specific figure for revenues because 'we don't even know what the final number is' regarding tariff rates. Despite the uncertainty, the Trump White House is confident that the onset of his broad tariffs will provide clarity about the path of the world's largest economy. Now that companies understand the direction the U.S. is headed, the administration believes they can ramp up new investments and jump-start hiring in ways that can rebalance the U.S. economy as a manufacturing power. But so far, there are signs of self-inflicted wounds to America as companies and consumers alike brace for the impact of new taxes. What the data has shown is a U.S. economy that changed in April with Trump's initial rollout of tariffs, an event that led to market drama, a negotiating period and Trump's ultimate decision to start his universal tariffs on Thursday. After April, economic reports show that hiring began to stall, inflationary pressures crept upward and home values in key markets started to decline, said John Silvia, CEO of Dynamic Economic Strategy. 'A less productive economy requires fewer workers,' Silvia said in an analysis note. 'But there is more, the higher tariff prices lower workers' real wages. The economy has become less productive, and firms cannot pay the same real wages as before. Actions have consequences.' Even then, the ultimate transformations of the tariffs are unknown and could play out over months, if not years. Many economists say the risk is that the American economy is steadily eroded rather than collapsing instantly. 'We all want it to be made for television where it's this explosion — it's not like that,' said Brad Jensen, a professor at Georgetown University. 'It's going to be fine sand in the gears and slow things down.' Trump has promoted the tariffs as a way to reduce the persistent trade deficit. But importers sought to avoid the taxes by importing more goods before the taxes went into effect. As a result, the $582.7 billion trade imbalance for the first half of the year was 38% higher than in 2024. Total construction spending has dropped 2.9% over the past year, and the factory jobs promised by Trump have so far resulted in job losses. The lead-up to Thursday fit the slapdash nature of Trump's tariffs, which have been variously rolled out, walked back, delayed, increased, imposed by letter and frantically renegotiated. The process has been so muddled that officials for key trade partners were unclear at the start of the week whether the tariffs would begin Thursday or Friday. The language of the July 31 order to delay the start of tariffs from Aug. 1 said the higher tax rates would start in seven days. On Wednesday morning, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, was asked if the new tariffs began at midnight Thursday, and he said reporters should check with the U.S. Trade Representative's Office. Trump on Wednesday announced additional 25% tariffs to be imposed on India for its buying of Russian oil, bringing their total import taxes to 50%. He has said that import taxes are still coming on pharmaceutical drugs and announced 100% tariffs on computer chips, meaning the U.S. economy could remain in a place of suspended animation as it awaits the impact. The president's use of a 1977 law to declare an economic emergency to impose the tariffs is also under challenge. The impending ruling from last week's hearing before a U.S. appeals court could cause Trump to find other legal justifications if judges say he exceeded his authority. Even people who worked with Trump during his first term are skeptical that things will go smoothly for the economy, such as Paul Ryan, the former Republican House speaker, who has emerged as a Trump critic. 'There's no sort of rationale for this other than the president wanting to raise tariffs based upon his whims, his opinions,' Ryan told CNBC on Wednesday. 'I think choppy waters are ahead because I think they're going to have some legal challenges.' Still, the stock market has been solid during the recent tariff drama, with the S&P 500 index climbing more than 25% from its April low. The market's rebound and the income tax cuts in Trump's tax and spending measures signed into law on July 4 have given the White House confidence that economic growth is bound to accelerate in the coming months. As of now, Trump still foresees an economic boom while the rest of the world and American voters wait nervously. 'There's one person who can afford to be cavalier about the uncertainty that he's creating, and that's Donald Trump,' said Rachel West, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation who worked in the Biden White House on labor policy. 'The rest of Americans are already paying the price for that uncertainty.'
CNN
22 minutes ago
- CNN
Japan's precipitous population decline shows no sign of slowing
Japan's precipitous population decline shows no sign of slowing, with the nation shrinking by more than 900,000 people last year – the biggest annual drop on record, according to government data. The data, released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on Wednesday, showed that the number of Japanese nationals fell by 908,574 in 2024, bringing the total population to 120 million. Since peaking at 126.6 million in 2009, the population has declined for 16 consecutive years, diminished by various factors like a struggling economy and deep-seated gender norms. With the population of Japanese nationals set to continue plummeting for decades yet, the country will feel the blow to its pension and health care systems, and other social infrastructure that is difficult to maintain with a shrinking workforce. The government has been trying to fight the decline for more than a decade, with efforts accelerating in recent years as the full scale of the crisis became clear – doing everything from offering childbirth and housing subsidies to encouraging fathers to take paternity leave. But each year, fewer babies are born, and more deaths are recorded – a vicious cycle and a symptom of a population skewing older and older. The proportion of elderly is too high – accounting for nearly 30% of the entire population, according to the new data – while the proportion of younger adults, of child-bearing and working age, is continually shrinking. Last year was no exception. The number of births recorded, at just 687,689, was the lowest among records going back to 1968 – while the number of deaths, at nearly 1.6 million, was the highest on record. The working-age population, defined as between 15 to 64, made up only 59% of the population in Japan last year – far lower than the global average of 65%, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This decline has been decades in the making, thanks to Japan's consistently low fertility rate since the 1970s. Because of this, sociologists and demographers say, there's no quick fix – and it's not reversible. Even if Japan manages to boost its fertility rate dramatically and immediately – which is a big 'if' – its population is bound to keep decreasing for at least several more decades until the skewed young-old ratio balances out, and the babies being born now reach childbearing age themselves. Experts have pointed to Japan's high cost of living, stagnant economy and wages, limited space, and demanding work culture as reasons fewer people are opting to date, marry or have children. For women, economic costs are not the only turn-off. Japan remains a highly patriarchal society in which married women are often expected to take the caregiver role, despite government efforts to get husbands more involved. Single parents are far less common in Japan than in many Western countries. Many of these issues are also plaguing other East Asian nations with their own population woes, including China and South Korea. One possible solution, experts have pointed out, would be to plug the gap by welcoming more immigrants – a controversial topic in Japan, a largely conservative country that perceives itself as ethnically homogenous. Foreign residents and Japanese nationals of mixed ethnicity have long complained of xenophobia, racism and discrimination. But the government has leaned into this option, launching a new digital nomad visa and crafting a new plan to upskill foreign workers. And there are signs it may be taking effect; the number of foreign residents in Japan increased by more than 10% last year to a record high of 3.6 million people, according to the new data. According to government models, which were most recently revised in 2023, Japan's population will fall by 30% by 2070 – but by then, 'the pace of population decline is expected to slow down slightly, mainly due to the increase in international migration.'
