UBS Recommends Options Pair Trade to Ride S&P 500's Grind Higher
While there's no guarantee the quiet climb to fresh records will continue, those willing to bet it will should consider putting on a moderately bullish options trade known as a call ratio spread, according to Maxwell Grinacoff, head of US equity derivatives research at UBS Group AG.
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Oil markets seen bearish after Trump-Putin Alaska meeting
By Seher Dareen LONDON (Reuters) -Oil markets are set for a muted price reaction when they open on Sunday after U.S. President Donald Trump's and Russian leader Vladimir Putin's meeting in Alaska, at which Trump said a fully-fledged peace deal was the aim for Ukraine rather than a ceasefire. Trump said he had agreed with Putin that negotiators should go straight to a peace settlement - not via a ceasefire, as Ukraine and European allies, until now with U.S. support, have been demanding. Trump said he would hold off imposing tariffs on countries such as China for buying Russian oil following his talks with Putin. He has previously threatened sanctions on Moscow and secondary sanctions on countries such as China and India that buy Russian oil if no moves are made to end the Ukraine war. "This will mean Russian oil will continue to flow undisturbed and this should be bearish for oil prices," said ICIS analyst Ajay Parmar. "It is worth noting that we think the impact of this will be minimal though and prices will likely see only a small dip in the very near term as a result of this news." The oil market will wait for developments from a meeting in Washington on Monday between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. European leaders have also been invited to the meeting, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. "Market participants will track comments from European leaders but for now Russian supply disruption risks will remain contained," said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. Brent settled at $65.85 a barrel on Friday, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $62.80 - both down nearly $1 before the talks in Alaska. Traders are waiting for a deal, so until that emerges, crude prices are likely to be stuck in a narrow range, said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "What we do know is that the threat of immediate sanctions on Russia, or secondary sanctions on other countries is put on hold for now, which would be bearish," he said. After the imposition of Western sanctions, including a seaborne oil embargo and price caps on Russian oil, Russia has redirected flows to China and India.
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Big changes could mark a housing market 'sweet spot' this fall — are you ready to take advantage of them?
Maybe you were planning to buy a house this year but haven't found anything yet — and panic is starting to set in because you're worried you've missed the housing market season. It's common you'll find a higher number of listed properties in late spring and summer. That means, if you're in the market for a new home, you have more options to choose from, but you also face stiffer competition. Traditionally, fall and winter are quieter, but if you find a place you like, you may be able to get a better deal on it. Don't miss Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can now become a landlord for as little as $100 — and no, you don't have to deal with tenants or fix freezers. Here's how I'm 49 years old and have nothing saved for retirement — what should I do? Don't panic. Here are 6 of the easiest ways you can catch up (and fast) Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan 'works every single time' to kill debt, get rich in America — and that 'anyone' can do it Shop Top Mortgage Rates Your Path to Homeownership A quicker path to financial freedom Personalized rates in minutes Potential homebuyers, however, may be able to take some comfort from the picture being painted by recent data that suggests this fall may be a great time to buy a new home. 'There's a lot of uncertainty out there, and some buyers are just waiting to see what happens,' Zillow senior economist Kara Ng said in an article published July 20. 'So, if you're able to buy, fall could be a sweet spot since you won't be competing against the pool of buyers waiting on the sidelines.' US housing inventory at a multiyear high One of the main reasons this fall is shaping up to be a good one for homebuyers is that, according to Zillow data, the inventory of homes for sale is the highest it's been since July 2020, with the number of listed homes up 20% from last year. At the same time, for the past two years, October has seen the highest inventory of the year as homes listed earlier remain unsold. Zillow anticipates this seasonal pattern will repeat this year after a 'lackluster spring' during which buyers didn't show up. A fall with high inventory and fewer buyers means that if you're in the market for a new home, 'you're likely to have more time to decide on your options,' Ng said. 'You have time to really consider if that home is the right fit for you.' With fewer buyers, you're also less likely to endure a bidding war for the home you want and you may have more negotiating power. Some sellers are lowering prices In some markets, prices aren't rising as quickly as they have been over the past few years. Home values across the U.S. grew by 45.3% between February 2020 to 2025, Zillow reported earlier this year — a rate that's more than double the historic rate of increase. As of July, the median sale price for all home types was $443,462, according to Redfin. But the market is cooling, and Zillow is predicting 'a decline of 1.4% in home values nationally by the end of the year.' Read more: Nervous about the stock market? Gain potential quarterly income through this $1B private real estate fund — even if you're not a millionaire. At the same time, 'the share of listings with a price cut in May climbed to 26%, and many sellers are sweetening deals with concessions such as covering closing costs or buying down mortgage interest rates for the first one to three years,' according to Zillow. These pricing dynamics could be a sign that the market is becoming more balanced in a way that 'favors buyers and sellers equally.' While Danielle Hale, chief economist at agrees that we're heading toward a more balanced market, she points out that this varies regionally and that affordability still remains an issue. 'Even with more homes on the market, buyer response has remained muted compared to what we'd expect from similar supply shifts in the past,' she said in a news release, commenting on mid-year housing forecast update. 'In regions like the South and West, inventory gains have been more substantial, but affordability constraints continue to weigh on demand,' she said. 'Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest remain tighter markets with relatively steadier buyer activity.' Are you ready to take advantage of a buyer's market? Whether you should take advantage of an improved buyer's market depends on your personal circumstances. If you're a first-time homebuyer, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau suggests you have at least two years of reliable, regular, steady income, as well as good credit. Ramsey Solutions, which offers personal finance education, recommends you first pay off all your other debts and build an emergency fund with three to six months' worth of expenses. From there, you'll need to save up a down payment — preferably 20% or more so you don't have to pay mortgage insurance. You'll also need to budget in closing costs and have funds available for moving expenses. Before you start searching for houses, be sure you can afford all of your monthly housing costs, including your mortgage, property taxes, homeowners insurance and (potentially) homeowners association fees — all of which shouldn't total more than 25% of your take-home pay, according to Ramsey Solutions. Another consideration from Ramsey Solutions? How long you plan to live there. That's because 'it usually takes at least five years for a home's value to grow enough to keep you from losing money when you resell it.' If you can satisfy these requirements and still feel you're ready for homeownership, you may be looking at a market more friendly to buyers than the U.S. has seen in a long time. What to read next Robert Kiyosaki warns of a 'Greater Depression' coming to the US — with millions of Americans going poor. But he says these 2 'easy-money' assets will bring in 'great wealth'. How to get in now Here are 5 simple ways to grow rich with real estate if you don't want to play landlord. And you can even start with as little as $10 Rich, young Americans are ditching the stormy stock market — here are the alternative assets they're banking on instead Here are 5 'must have' items that Americans (almost) always overpay for — and very quickly regret. How many are hurting you? Stay in the know. Join 200,000+ readers and get the best of Moneywise sent straight to your inbox every week for free. This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Cava Shares Crash. Should Investors Buy the Stock on the Dip or Run for the Hills?
Key Points Cava shares sank after its same-store sales growth slowed. The company still has a long expansion runway, and therefore, plenty of growth potential for the stock. 10 stocks we like better than Cava Group › Shares of Cava Group (NYSE: CAVA) plunged after the Mediterranean-themed restaurant operator's same-store sales growth slowed in its fiscal second quarter (ended July 13), missing expectations. The stock is now down nearly 40% year to date as of this writing. Let's dive into the company's latest results and prospects to see if investors should buy the dip or steer clear of the stock. Same-store sales growth slows After reporting double-digit growth in comparable-restaurant sales (comps) each of the past four quarters, Cava's growth slowed considerably in its fiscal Q2. Comps edged up just 2.1% with guest traffic largely flat. That was well below the 6.1% increase that analysts were expecting, based on market intelligence site StreetAccount's estimates, and a big slowdown from recent quarters. Metric Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2005 Comps growth 14.4% 18.1% 21.2% 10.8% 2.1% Traffic 9.5% 12.9% 15.6% 7.5% -- Price and product mix 4.9% 5.2% 5.6% 3.3% 2.1% Data source: Cava Group. The company started the quarter strong, but once it lapped the introduction of its popular grilled steak a year ago, growth slowed. In response, Cava plans to push forward with more menu innovations, including the introduction of chicken shawarma in the coming weeks and cinnamon sugar pita chips. It said tests of chicken shawarma in select markets went well, and it expects the new item to help drive comps. Overall revenue for the quarter climbed 20% year over year to $278.2 million. It opened 16 new restaurants in the period, bringing its total to 398 locations, a nearly 17% increase compared to a year ago. It entered two new markets during the quarter, in Pittsburgh and Michigan. Management now plans to open between 68 to 70 new locations this fiscal year, up from a prior forecast of 64 to 68. Long term, management's goal is to reach at least 1,000 stores by 2032. Its restaurant-level margins (RLMs) came in at 26.3% in the quarter, down slightly from 26.5% a year ago. RLMs measure how profitable a chain's individual restaurants are before corporate costs, and they're an important restaurant industry metric. The company's RLMs just trail the 27.4% figure of Chipotle Mexican Grill despite having much lower scale than its larger rival. On the profitability front, Cava's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) climbed 23% year over year to $42.1 million. The company also generated $98.9 million in operating cash flow in the quarter and free cash flow of $21.9 million. Management lowered its full-year comps outlook for the year, taking it from 6% to 8% growth down to a range of 4% to 6% growth. But it maintained its 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook of $152 million to $159 million, and its RLM margin forecast of 24.8% to 25.2%. Should investors buy the dip? In hindsight, with the restaurant industry's comps growth slowing in general, combined with the lapping of the introduction of Cava's highly popular grilled steak, it may not be that big of a surprise to see the chain's comps growth slow dramatically. That said, it doesn't take away from the fact that Cava is still a highly popular concept. The company's biggest opportunity is still its ongoing expansion. With fewer than 400 locations, it has a long growth runway that it is able to self-fund. These are also highly productive stores with an impressive average unit volume of nearly $3 million and top-tier RLMs. Trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of nearly 123 and a forward price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 7 based on 2025 analyst estimates, Cava stock is not cheap. However, if the company gets to 1,000 store locations in 2032, it could be generating close to $4.5 billion in revenue with consistent mid-single-digit comps growth. With Chipotle currently sporting a forward P/S ratio of 4.8, Cava stock has the potential to more than double over the next seven years if it were to trade at the same multiple that Chipotle does today. That's a strong outlook, and the restaurant chain could still expand beyond that point. As such, the stock's year-to-date slump does present an interesting opportunity. Long-term investors can consider taking a starter position in Cava now and add more shares on future dips. Should you invest $1,000 in Cava Group right now? Before you buy stock in Cava Group, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Cava Group wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $668,155!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,106,071!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,070% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 184% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 13, 2025 Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends Cava Group and recommends the following options: short September 2025 $60 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Cava Shares Crash. Should Investors Buy the Stock on the Dip or Run for the Hills? was originally published by The Motley Fool Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
