Is SAM Engineering & Equipment (M) Berhad (KLSE:SAM) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

Yahoo

2 days ago

Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, SAM Engineering & Equipment (M) Berhad fair value estimate is RM2.92
SAM Engineering & Equipment (M) Berhad is estimated to be 34% overvalued based on current share price of RM3.92
Our fair value estimate is 28% lower than SAM Engineering & Equipment (M) Berhad's analyst price target of RM4.04
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of SAM Engineering & Equipment (M) Berhad (KLSE:SAM) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (MYR, Millions)
RM143.2m
RM8.75m
RM41.9m
RM87.6m
RM112.2m
RM135.5m
RM156.7m
RM175.6m
RM192.3m
RM207.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Est @ 28.11%
Est @ 20.77%
Est @ 15.63%
Est @ 12.03%
Est @ 9.51%
Est @ 7.75%
Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 10%
RM130
RM7.2
RM31.4
RM59.7
RM69.5
RM76.2
RM80.1
RM81.5
RM81.1
RM79.4
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM696m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = RM207m× (1 + 3.6%) ÷ (10%– 3.6%) = RM3.3b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= RM3.3b÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= RM1.3b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is RM2.0b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of RM3.9, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at SAM Engineering & Equipment (M) Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.084. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
View our latest analysis for SAM Engineering & Equipment (M) Berhad
Strength
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.
Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Malaysian market.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For SAM Engineering & Equipment (M) Berhad, we've compiled three relevant aspects you should explore:
Financial Health: Does SAM have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does SAM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Malaysian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.