The troubling decline of the South African sorghum industry
Despite sorghum's nutritional value and climate resilience, South Africa's production has plummeted 75% since 1990. Failed biofuel initiatives crushed farmers' hopes for new markets, while consumer demand remains weak. Without research investment in higher-yielding varieties and export opportunities, this nutritious grain's future looks bleak, writes Wandile Sihlobo.
Whenever I post about the challenges in the maize industry on X, I often see responses from people arguing that South Africans should consume more sorghum. They correctly highlight the crop's nutritional value and resilience in challenging climatic conditions.
But despite all these benefits, the sorghum industry has not taken off. The challenge is not that farmers refuse to plant it. This is due to its weak demand—consumers are not buying sorghum products like other staple grains.
The issue of weak demand partly gave farmers hope that using sorghum in biofuels would provide a much-needed market for farmers. But this venture also did not take off. Thus, sorghum production has continued to decline in South Africa.
South African farmers planted 41 150 hectares of sorghum in the 2024-25 production season, down 75% from the area we planted in 1990-91. The production is estimated at 137 970 tonnes in the current 2024-25, down by 54% from 1990-91.
This is a disappointing picture, and with the promise of the biofuel industry remaining unclear, we may continue to see small plantings for some time.
Let me take you back to 2014, an optimistic time for this crop. At the time, sorghum was one of the promising crops in South Africa's agriculture, boosted by the hope of developing the biofuel industry, creating jobs, and creating a new market for farmers, particularly black smallholder farmers.
Mabele Fuels and Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) were the first to embrace this initiative. Mabele Fuels was to build a processing plant in Bothaville, potentially creating roughly 16,700 jobs and a market for farmers in that area. Similarly, the IDC would create jobs and a much-needed market opportunity for smallholder farmers in the Eastern Cape.
These plants would utilise roughly 500,000 tons of sorghum a year, triple the volume South Africa produced then. The government was the key player in creating jobs, boosting the economy, creating a market for smallholder farmers, and reviving the South African sorghum industry. Unfortunately, the government incentives fell short, and the process did not materialise.
In fact, by early 2016, it was clear that the biofuel industry was a lost dream, and farmers were opting for other opportunities, such as accessing new export markets. This was a difficult task as South Africa is not an established exporter of sorghum. South Africa's sorghum exports are concentrated in southern Africa, with key markets being Botswana and Swaziland.
Fellow agricultural economist Tinashe Kapuya and I wrote a research piece in early 2015 to identify potential new markets for South Africa's sorghum industry. We found Cameroon, Sudan, and Ethiopia to be the only attractive markets on the continent, with potential for growth and low import tariffs.
Japan and Mexico were globally identified as the large markets, with zero-rated tariffs for South African sorghum exports.
The key question that emerged from our article was whether South Africa would be competitive enough in these markets, in other words, be able to produce the required volumes at lower costs than its competitors. This was left unanswered, and some farmers were still keen to explore these opportunities until the 2015/16 drought disrupted progress.
Given the failure of the biofuel initiative, developing higher-yielding seed varieties and expanding export markets could revive the South African sorghum industry.
Globally, there is a stable demand for sorghum. Still, for South Africa to participate in such an environment, it would need to increase its volumes and be able to sell at competitive prices. This calls for more research and creative ideas to save the sorghum industry in South Africa.
Regarding the domestic demand, I am not as optimistic that consumers will switch to this crop, at least in the near term.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).
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Yahoo
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'They should initiate a formal investigation of his immigration status, because I am of the strong belief that he is an illegal alien, and he should be deported from the country immediately,' Bannon said of South Africa-born Musk, who is a US citizen. Use general presidential powers against Musk When Trump was elected, observers pointed to the myriad ways in which a Musk-friendly White House administration could benefit the financial interests of the world's richest person. That benign environment, which includes awarding of government contracts and directing federal agencies giving Musk's businesses an easier ride, could of course be turned hostile. Richard Pierce, a law professor at George Washington University and a specialist in government regulation, told the Guardian at the time: 'All federal regulators and prosecutors work for the president. He can tell them to do something or not to do something with the understanding that he will fire them if they disobey.' Ostracise Musk from the Maga movement Trump, as the leader of the 'Make America great again' vanguard, can close doors on Musk. The Republican congressman Troy Nehls excoriated the billionaire on Thursday, telling him: ''You've lost your damn mind.' He added: 'Enough is enough.' Musk can handle such opprobrium and, given his considerable wealth, he is an important source of funding for Republican politicians. Turn X against the White House Musk used his X platform, and his more than 220 million followers on it, to rally support for Trump's victory in the 2024. It also provided a platform for rightwing views that helped publicise the Maga agenda. Theoretically, Musk could at least use his own X account to criticise Trump with as much regularity as he pumped the president's policies (the Tesla chief executive is a prolific user of his own platform). However, this also depends on Musk's influence with the US electorate. Five out of 10 US adults say they have an unfavourable view of Musk, according to the Pew Research Center. But it should be noted that seven out of 10 Republicans or Republican-leaning adults hold a favourable view – he's not going to sway many Democrats who dislike Trump anyway. Form a new political movement Musk, who is worth more than $300bn (£220bn), could divert his considerable financial resources away from the Republican party and start a new political entity. Musk spent $250m on getting Trump elected in 2024, signalling his willingness to invest heavily in politics. On Thursday he posted a poll on X and asked: 'Is it time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle?' More than 80% of the 4.8 million respondents voted 'yes'. Create geopolitical problems with his businesses The Starlink satellite broadband platform, owned by Musk's SpaceX, is playing a key rule in Ukraine's fight against a Russian invasion, while China is an important manufacturing and consumer base for Tesla. Through his businesses, Musk also has political contacts around the world and is regularly photographed in the company of global leaders. However, any damage Musk causes to Trump's international standing or interests will have to be balanced with any knock-on effect on his own businesses. Create problems for Nasa Nasa has a close relationship with Musk's SpaceX, with the company's Dragon spacecraft being used to transport the agency's astronauts to and from the International Space Station. Musk immediately pledged to decommission Dragon in the wake of the Trump spat on Thursday – before quickly signalling an about-face. Nonetheless, SpaceX is a crucial part of Nasa's ISS operations. Tell-all on Trump Musk has been a fixture of Trump's inner circle for a considerable period of time and, as the contents of his X account show, he is capable of taking multiple damaging swipes at people. However, members of Trump's inner circle will have had the same access to Musk, whose personal life is becoming a media staple.
