The British public aren't who you think they are

New Statesman​

4 days ago

Illustration by Gary Waters / Ikon Images
Last week, YouGov revealed that nearly half of Britons – 47 per cent – wrongly think there are more migrants staying in the UK illegally than legally. The numbers aren't even close: there are between 120,000 and 1.3 million illegal migrants living in the UK, out of a total of 10.7 million foreign-born people in total. Depending on which figure you use, that means people who come to the UK illegally make up between 1.1 per cent and 12 per cent of the total migrant population, suggesting half the British public are wildly wrong on this one. But the way in which they are wrong tells us something interesting about how misconceptions may be shaping the political debate and what politicians might want to do about it.
It got me wondering: what else can we learn about the British public that might surprise us? August is a good time for taking a step back and examining how voters really feel about things, which may have been missed in the endless drama of the news cycle. So I asked five pollsters what they have discovered recently that might challenge the outlook of Westminster watchers, and what they thought this told us about our current political climate.
Trump island
Last week, we learned that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves currently have lower favourability ratings than Donald Trump. But how do Brits really feel about the US president anyway? The answer, according to Ipsos, may surprise you.
'Let's be clear, Donald Trump isn't winning any popularity contests in the UK anytime soon, with 64 per cent of Britons overall unfavourable towards the US president,' says Keiran Pedley, director of UK politics at Ipsos. 'But what's fascinating in our polling is the generational divide that we uncovered.' Ipsos found that while just 9 per cent of those over 55 view Trump favourably, that figure jumps to 29 per cent for 18-34-year-olds (though 45 per cent in this age group are unfavourable).
'This isn't just a quirky stat,' Pedley adds. As the UK prepares for Trump's unprecedented second state visit, with the vice-president chilling out in a Cotswolds village, 'it suggests Trump's anti-establishment, social-media-driven brand of politics is having some cut through with a generation that gets its news from very different places than their parents. For many young people, who are perhaps more sceptical of 'business-as-usual' politics, his disruptive style seems to resonate. It's a crucial trend, and one that hints at a real shift in the political landscape.'
What did your dad do again?
During the election campaign, avid followers of UK politics got so sick of Starmer reminding us that his father was a toolmaker that when the Labour leader mentioned it in a live event with Sky News, the audience started to laugh. But according to Joe Twyman, co-founder and director of Deltapoll, only 18 per cent of British adults know this fact about the Prime Minister's background.
'You might know the correct answer, almost everyone you know might know the correct answer, but the average person in the street doesn't,' Twyman warns. With the question 'Who is Labour for?' increasingly coming up in focus groups and questions about class dynamics swirling once more around British politics, it's striking how little cut-through Starmer's personal story has had with the public.
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In more bad news for the Prime Minister, Deltapoll also found that 56 per cent of British adults think Starmer makes the world a worse place, compared to 24 per cent who think he makes it a better place. 'On the plus side,' Twyman adds, 'his score is better than that of Donald Trump (63 per cent vs 21 per cent), Benjamin Netanyahu (58 per cent vs 10 per cent) and Vladimir Putin (83 per cent vs 6 per cent). On the downside, his score is worse than that of domestic opponents including Kemi Badenoch (23 per cent vs 39 per cent), Nigel Farage (32 per cent vs 46 per cent), Boris Johnson (31 per cent vs 47 per cent), and Jeremy Corbyn (22 per cent vs 54 per cent).' Ouch.
I have a cunning plan
Speaking of Corbyn, Scarlett Maguire, founder and director of Merlin Strategy, has found an unlikely source of support: Reform voters. On a range of indicators – from 'authentic' and 'honest' to 'for working people' and 'understands people like me' – Corbyn beats Starmer decisively among those who say they would back Farage's party if an election were held tomorrow. The biggest wins for Corbyn over Starmer were 'represents change' (69 per cent vs 31 per cent) and 'makes radical decisions' (70 per cent vs 30 per cent). The only thing Reform voters thought Starmer was better at was representing Britain on the world stage.
The fact that supporters of a radical right party preferred the (potential) leader of a radical left one to the Prime Minister of a centre-left government is striking, and suggests a real weakness in Labour's strategy of chasing Reform votes – although, Maguire points out, 'this does not show they like Corbyn, more the extent to which they dislike Starmer'.
Merlin Strategy also found that, by a whisker, more people trust Farage on the economy than Starmer (33 per cent vs 31 per cent). The good news for Labour is that Badenoch is languishing behind at 21 per cent – but then, that was before she went to war with Liz Truss. In separate polling, when asked for a word or phrase that best describes Labour, the most popular answer was 'no plan' (22 per cent). But then, voters also picked 'no plan' for Reform (23 per cent), the Conservatives (25 per cent), the Lib Dems (27 per cent) and the Greens (33 per cent). Does anyone in Westminster have a plan? Answers on a postcard, please.
Normal people
So what are Reform voters actually like? As it's the holidays, Luke Tryl, UK director at More In Common, has been on the lookout for some more summery insights. In a survey on what summer activities people were looking forward to, he found that Reform voters 'are ahead among basically all the normal stuff' – like going abroad (to both EU and non-EU countries), sitting in a pub garden and having a barbecue. In contrast, 'the Tories only lead is with Tour de France fans, and Labour is posting its biggest scores on more niche things like Glastonbury or cold-water swimming', plus celebrating Pride. Reform have also won Wimbledon off the Tories.
More In Common has looked at people's entertainment choices too, asking Brits to choose their favourite sitcoms. 'We found Reform led among fans of Fawlty Towers and Only Fools and Horses – which you might expect – but also among fans of The Office and Gavin and Stacey,' Tryl says. Labour are left leading on things like The IT Crowd and The Young Ones. (Unsurprisingly, the Tories lead among fans of Yes, Minister – a show which, by pure coincidence, contains the immortal political adage that 'the less you intend to do about something, the more you have to keep talking about it'.)
According to Tryl, these two surveys 'tell a really good story using non-political proxies of how 'normal' the Reform vote is. It helps to explain their rise from fringe to leading in the polls'. They also show the sheer range in terms of class and cultural markers of those considering backing Farage.
All that said, it's best to beware putting the UK public into neat little boxes – as two intriguing bits of polling from YouGov show. The first found that while just 35 per cent of Britons identify as a feminist, 83 per cent believe men and women should be equal in every way. They did the test by asking the question in three ways: 'Are you a feminist?'; then 'One definition of a feminist is someone who believes men and women should have equal rights and status in society, and be treated equally in every way. Are you a feminist?'; and finally 'Do you think men and women should have equal rights and status in society, and be treated equally in every way?' Support increased with each option.
Tanya Abraham, director of political and social research at YouGov, notes the data 'suggests that there is a certain toxicity to the term 'feminist' that is putting some people off using it, even when it is paired with a description they would back'. But the poll is also a great demonstration of why it's so important not to make assumptions. You could look at answers to the first question and get what looks like a very clear indication of how British people feel about a pretty fundamental social question. And that indication would be wrong.
YouGov also found last year that, whatever stereotypes we might have in our heads about England football fans, over two-thirds (67 per cent) don't mind whether the England manager is English or not. With the recent triumph of the Lionesses under their superstar Dutch manager Sarina Wiegman, that figure is probably even higher today than it was when YouGov asked the question in October 2024, after the German Thomas Tuchel was announced as Gareth Southgate's successor.
Back then, Farage tweeted 'Why can't we have an English manager?' But YouGov found that just only 30 per cent of England fans had a preference for the manager to be English. Even more interestingly, YouGov's Dylan Difford wrote that while 'desire for an English candidate is highest among Reform UK voters, at 42 per cent… even then, 47 per cent disagree with Farage's view'. Maybe the real takeaway is that, in sport as in politics, the British people just want a winner.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu are trapped]
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