Global oil demand to dip in 2030, first drop since Covid: IEA
In an annual outlook for the oil market, the Paris-based agency cited sluggish economic growth, global trade tensions, the rise of electric cars and the shift away from crude to produce power.
Annual demand growth will slow from around 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 2026 "to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030", the IEA said.
Total demand is forecast to reach 105.5 million bpd in 2030 after peaking at 105.6 million bpd in 2029.
Oil demand dropped dramatically in 2020, when countries locked down and shut their borders during the Covid pandemic, falling to 91.7 million bpd before steadily growing again in the following years.
Demand in the world's top consumer, the United States, is expected to peak this year and start to decline in 2026 while consumption in China, the top importer of crude, will fall from 2028, according to the "Oil 2025" report.
Demand in the Middle East will also peak in 2027 and decline the following year.
Saudi Arabia will post the "single largest decline in oil demand for any country" in absolute terms through 2030 as the kingdom replaces crude with gas and renewable energy to produce power, the IEA said.
US and Saudis to lead output
The report comes as oil prices have surged since Israel launched air strikes against Iran last week, prompting Tehran to fire missiles back at its arch foe.
The price increases "are not driven by the fundamentals", IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a news conference. "We have a lot of supply oil in the market. Demand is much weaker than the supply."
"We don't expect high oil prices to be with us for a very long time," Birol said, adding that the IEA stood ready to act if there are any supply disruptions.
While the conflict "focuses attention on immediate energy security risks", the IEA said oil supply growth will "far outpace" the increase in demand in coming years.
World oil production capacity is forecast to rise by 5.1 million bpd -- double the pace of demand -- to 114.7 million bpd by 2030, the report found.
"Combined, Saudi Arabia and the United States will contribute 40 percent to total global oil capacity growth in the forecast period," it said.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Euronews
5 hours ago
- Euronews
Thousands flee Tehran as conflict with Israel continues to escalate
The Iranian capital Tehran, home to around 10 million people and one of the biggest cities in the Middle East, has seen a mass exodus as the conflict with Israel intensifies. Early on Tuesday, the city's bustling downtown began to empty, with many shops closed and the historic Grand Bazaar shuttered, something that had not occurred since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. A partial evacuation order from the Israeli military was issued to 330,000 people living in the centre of Tehran early on Monday. However, many had already begun to flee following attacks at the weekend. Traffic jams stretched for kilometres on roads leading out of the city, with many heading toward the Caspian Sea region. Long lines also formed at gas stations as residents scrambled to get fuel, with limits on 25 litres of fuel per car now in place. Later on Monday, US President Donald Trump posted a message on his social media site Truth Social calling for the immediate evacuation of the Iranian capital. "Everybody should immediately evacuate Tehran," Trump posted, later explaining that he issued the statement because "I just want people to be safe." Despite this growing exodus, Iranian officials maintained that the situation was under control, offering no clear guidance for the public. Meanwhile, flights bringing evacuees from Israel have landed in Slovakia and the Czech Republic, making them among the first countries to repatriate citizens amid the escalating conflict. Slovak authorities confirmed the arrival of the first evacuation flight late Monday, carrying 73 passengers, including 25 Slovak tourists and five family members of Slovak diplomats based in Tel Aviv. Poland also announced plans to evacuate its citizens from Israel, with operations scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. India has also evacuated an undisclosed number of students from Tehran. The Indian Foreign Ministry said that some nationals have been assisted in leaving Iran through the border with Armenia. Those who can arrange their own transportation have been urged to go as soon as possible. Around 50,000 Israelis are believed to be stranded overseas, with some reports putting that number closer to 100,000. This follows the closure of Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport on Friday as Israel launched airstrikes against Iran's nuclear program, a situation that has left the airport closed "until further notice". Israeli authorities have urged citizens stranded abroad not to rush to Larnaca or Athens in hopes of returning home sooner, as Israel's airspace remains indefinitely closed to both arrivals and departures. The country's National Security Council also issued a warning against attempting to reach Israel by land through Jordan or Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, with both countries now under Level 4 travel warnings, advising immediate departure for those already there. Meanwhile, two explosions were heard across Tehran early on Tuesday afternoon, with black smoke rising from the northern part of the city near Iranian state television's headquarters and key government offices. Iranian authorities have yet to acknowledge the attack.
Euronews
5 hours ago
- Euronews
Massive military jet shuffle signals possible groundwork for US action
Multiple US military refuelling tankers and US fighter jets were reported to be moving east above the Mediterranean Sea on Tuesday afternoon, amid concerns that Washington may join Israel in military strikes on Iranian missile and nuclear activities sites. 'Iran can not have a nuclear weapon,' Trump wrote Monday night before returning to Washington early from the G7 summit in Canada. 'Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,' he added. Trump's ominous warning to residents of the Iranian capital marked a sudden shift from the previous US position of not getting directly involved militarily in the conflict and rather looking for a negotiated solution for 'peace'. Euronews' observations of real-time aviation monitoring portal Flightradar, corroborated by Euronews' military sources as well as open-source reports from military observers across social media, point to what appears to be an intense flying movement signalling a build-up of US military striking capabilities in the Mediterranean and possible preparations for military action. Some of the USAF refuelling tanker aircraft that flew Sunday to Europe-based US bases RAF Mildenhall in the UK and US airbase Morón de la Frontera in Spain, as announced by Secretary Hegseth, were seen flying east above the Mediterranean on Tuesday afternoon. Military observers photographed the one from RAF Mildenhall as it dragged US fighter jets from RAF Lakenheath. On Tuesday afternoon, Euronews observed USAF KC-135 Stratotankers originating from RAF Mildenhall and US airbase Morón de la Frontera flying east near Italy, towards unknown locations. The Boeing-made KC-135 Stratotanker is a refuelling tanker aircraft. Other such tankers are also present at US airbases in Ramstein in Germany, Aviano in Italy and Greece's Chania-Souda Bay in Crete, to bolster US fighter presence and capabilities in the Middle East. According to Euronews' military sources, the tankers that arrived on Sunday night at the US airbase Morón de la Frontera sortied out on Tuesday afternoon, and the movement of fighter jets from RAF Lakenheath, Spangdahlem and Aviano was also under way. According to the same sources corroborated with other available information, the aircraft deployed from Lakenheath included F-15E and F-35, while multiple F-16CJ/DJ took off from Spangdahlem and F-16C/D from Aviano, all in the direction of the Middle East. US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth announced on Monday in a post on social media platform X that the US was deploying 'additional capabilities' to 'enhance our defensive posture in the region.' But just hours later, Trump announced abruptly that he was leaving the G7 summit in Canada early, saying the reason for his departure was 'much bigger' and unrelated to any ceasefire efforts. He told reporters he was 'not too much in the mood to negotiate now" and that "we're looking at better than a ceasefire". Pressed to clarify what he meant, the president added: 'An end, a real end. Giving up entirely — that's okay too." Trump's sudden change of position coincided with Israeli Defence Minister Katz calling repeatedly for the immediate evacuation of Tehran residents, warning of imminent large-scale Israeli strikes, targeting what he described as nuclear and regime-linked infrastructure, specifically mentioning the underground Fordo nuclear facility as 'an issue that will certainly be addressed.' Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told ABC News on Monday that he was not ruling out assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Netanyahu claimed that doing so was "not going to escalate the conflict, it's going to end the conflict", a statement echoed by Trump on Tuesday when he also used 'end' in his statement. Meanwhile on Tuesday, the EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that potential military involvement by the US would "definitely drag" the entire Middle East into a wider, more dangerous conflict. 'When it comes to the United States getting involved, then it will definitely drag the region into broader conflict. And this is in nobody's interest," Kallas said after hosting a coordination video conference with the EU's 27 foreign affairs ministers. The Iranian capital Tehran, home to around 10 million people and one of the biggest cities in the Middle East, has seen a mass exodus as the conflict with Israel intensifies. Traffic jams stretched for kilometres on roads leading out of the city, with many heading toward the Caspian Sea region. The Iranian capital Tehran, home to around 10 million people and one of the biggest cities in the Middle East, has seen a mass exodus as the conflict with Israel intensifies. Early on Tuesday, the city's bustling downtown began to empty, with many shops closed and the historic Grand Bazaar shuttered, something that had not occurred since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. A partial evacuation order from the Israeli military was issued to 330,000 people living in the centre of Tehran early on Monday. However, many had already begun to flee following attacks at the weekend. Traffic jams stretched for kilometres on roads leading out of the city, with many heading toward the Caspian Sea region. Long lines also formed at gas stations as residents scrambled to get fuel, with limits on 25 litres of fuel per car now in place. Later on Monday, US President Donald Trump posted a message on his social media site Truth Social calling for the immediate evacuation of the Iranian capital. "Everybody should immediately evacuate Tehran," Trump posted, later explaining that he issued the statement because "I just want people to be safe." Despite this growing exodus, Iranian officials maintained that the situation was under control, offering no clear guidance for the public. Meanwhile, flights bringing evacuees from Israel have landed in Slovakia and the Czech Republic, making them among the first countries to repatriate citizens amid the escalating conflict. Slovak authorities confirmed the arrival of the first evacuation flight late Monday, carrying 73 passengers, including 25 Slovak tourists and five family members of Slovak diplomats based in Tel Aviv. Poland also announced plans to evacuate its citizens from Israel, with operations scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. India has also evacuated an undisclosed number of students from Tehran. The Indian Foreign Ministry said that some nationals have been assisted in leaving Iran through the border with Armenia. Those who can arrange their own transportation have been urged to go as soon as possible. Around 50,000 Israelis are believed to be stranded overseas, with some reports putting that number closer to 100,000. This follows the closure of Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport on Friday as Israel launched airstrikes against Iran's nuclear program, a situation that has left the airport closed "until further notice". Israeli authorities have urged citizens stranded abroad not to rush to Larnaca or Athens in hopes of returning home sooner, as Israel's airspace remains indefinitely closed to both arrivals and departures. The country's National Security Council also issued a warning against attempting to reach Israel by land through Jordan or Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, with both countries now under Level 4 travel warnings, advising immediate departure for those already there. Meanwhile, two explosions were heard across Tehran early on Tuesday afternoon, with black smoke rising from the northern part of the city near Iranian state television's headquarters and key government offices. Iranian authorities have yet to acknowledge the attack.
France 24
5 hours ago
- France 24
Escalation or diplomacy? Outcome of Iran-Israel conflict uncertain
Israel says its offensive aims to eliminate Iran's nuclear programme and ballistic missile production capabilities. The Israeli government has not ruled out triggering a wholesale removal of the clerical system set up after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that has remained implacably opposed to Israel's existence. Yet even if Israel succeeds in ousting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or killing him, the supreme leader will not necessarily be replaced by more moderate forces and the risk exists of further escalation, analysts warn. Diplomacy, meanwhile, remains at a standstill as Israel pounds Iranian targets and Iran hits back with its own strikes on its foe, heightening fears of a wider and prolonged conflict. 'Existential' crisis In television interviews, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not ruled out killing Khamenei, although a US official said President Donald Trump had vetoed assassinating the supreme leader. Israel, whose intelligence service is widely acknowledged to have deeply penetrated Iran, has killed a host of key figures including the head of the Revolutionary Guards and armed forces in a huge blow. "This is existential, the most profound of all the crises the Islamic republic has faced," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the London-based Chatham House think tank. "This is designed to decapitate the leadership of the Islamic republic and degrade the nuclear and broader capabilities of the regime," she said. Rather than an immediate turnaround, what could result is "an unravelling over time" with the Israeli action putting an "accelerant" on a process of change already happening within Iran due to dissatisfaction with the authorities, she said. For Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-proliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Israel's military operation "is about regime change and not eliminating the nuclear programme". "If the regime falls, then it will be an enormous success," he said of the operation Israel dubbed "Rising Lion" -- a likely reference to the beast which adorned the pre-revolutionary Iranian flag. Proxies Even in the event of a change in leadership, Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy at risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, said Khamenei could be replaced with a figure who may be even more hardline and pose a greater danger to Israel in the conflict's aftermath. "Kill Khamenei, make him a martyr to the hardliners and empower a new supreme leader who may be much less risk averse. Or leave him to die or resign in likely disgrace after the war, his credibility in ruins. Which move produces a government better suited to Israel's interests?" Brew said. Iran's ability to cause regional mayhem through its proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been severely degraded by Israeli operations since October 2023. But Tehran still backs the Huthi rebels in Yemen who have attacked Gulf shipping, while Iran can strike energy facilities or undertake cyberattacks. "It remains to be seen if Iran will seek to engage in grey zone activities, including cyberattacks," said analysts at US-based think tank Soufan Center. - Nuclear diplomacy - Israel's air strikes have put an end, for now, to the latest track of talks seeking to end the standoff over the Iranian nuclear programme, which the West and Israel fear is aimed at making the atomic bomb. Analysts say the future of any diplomatic progress lies with the United States and Trump, who has so far resisted Israeli pressure to become directly involved in the conflict. "Netanyahu's goal is to bring Trump into the war," said David Khalfa, co-founder of the Atlantic Middle East Forum think tank. "But I think he will stand back and let Israel continue to weaken Iran to force it to negotiate" with the Islamic republic in a weaker position, Khalfa said. Israel has hit the Natanz nuclear site during its attacks, but has not been able to strike the Fordo enrichment facility, which is located deep underground. Analysts believe Israel could only damage it with the help of American bunker-busting bombs. Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, argued in an article for Foreign Affairs that Israel would be unable to wipe out the Iranian nuclear programme even in a prolonged conflict. "A diplomatic settlement represents the best and most sustainable way for Trump to avoid both a nuclear Iran and a protracted military entanglement," Vaez said.
