The UK must raise defence spending
The danger with any defence review is that it ends up fighting the last war or failing to anticipate the next threat. We are about to have the third in 10 years, which suggests the long-term planning that supposedly underpinned the previous reviews has been found wanting.
The current review has been undertaken by, among others, Lord Robertson who as Labour defence secretary under Tony Blair oversaw an earlier iteration completed in 1998. It created the Joint Reaction Force and most controversially commissioned two new Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers seen at the time as a sop to Scottish shipyards and Labour's MPs north of the Border.
One of those carriers, HMS Prince of Wales, together with accompanying strike group, is on an eight-month deployment to the Indo-Pacific at a time when tensions with China are growing. The US defense secretary Pete Hegseth has somewhat alarmingly suggested that a possible assault on Taiwan is imminent. This has been denied in Beijing but the military build up is ominous and is causing concern in the region.
Australia's defence minister has called on China to explain why it needs to have 'such an extraordinary military build-up'. His counterpart in the Philippines has called China 'absolutely irresponsible and reckless' in its actions.In the face of this development, the £6 billion investment in carriers able to project UK power as part of a wider coalition designed to stop Chinese expansionism does not seem such a poor investment after all.
It has taken close to 30 years for the threat to materialise in the way it has, which is precisely what a strategic review is supposed to do – look to the long term. The latest takes place against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, something that was considered highly unlikely as recently as the 2015 review, even though by then Crimea had been annexed by Moscow.
Anticipating the threats to national, regional and global security is difficult but they have not really changed that much in the past three decades. The biggest upheaval is in the willingness of the US to continue bankrolling the rest of the democratic world, which it is no longer prepared to do.
The new reality is that much more money needs to be spent on defence than the 2.5 per cent of GDP promised by the Government. Unless we see a financial commitment commensurate to the threat this latest review risks foundering before it takes off.
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