Trump's orders on climate and environment could hurt Arizona's economy, experts fear

Yahoo

27-01-2025

President Donald Trump began his second term with bold actions opposing the transition away from fossil fuels for the preservation of a livable climate. Most of these came as executive orders signed Monday night, hours after he was inaugurated.
At the end of his first week back, the precise implications of how and when these orders may be felt across the nation and in Arizona remain largely unclear. Broadly speaking, though, scientists, lawyers and policy experts told The Arizona Republic that Trump's intentions to reverse climate progress and boost oil production are likely to hurt Arizona's and the United State's economy while further destabilizing atmospheric weather patterns that increase the likelihood of expensive storms, fires and infrastructure damage.
Trump's declaration of a "National Energy Emergency" Monday night cites a need for a reliable, diversified and affordable supply of energy while seeking to fulfill this primarily by fast-tracking more oil drilling. The order defined "energy" and "energy resources" as "crude oil, natural gas, lease condensates, natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, uranium, coal, biofuels, geothermal heat, the kinetic movement of flowing water, and critical minerals."
While critical minerals are involved in solar panel manufacturing, this definition does not mention solar energy directly and leaves out wind power entirely. Solar and onshore wind are two of the nation's most readily available clean energy options and, due to recent advances, already rival fossil fuel energy costs and reliability when combined with battery storage.
In a separate order signed Monday, Trump formalized his long-voiced opposition to wind power by withdrawing leases for offshore wind projects on the outer continental shelf. If the order sticks, it would eliminate a source of energy production that the National Renewable Energy Lab has projected to drop dramatically in price over the next decade.
In a third order titled "Unleashing American Energy," he called for "energy exploration and production on Federal lands and waters, including on the Outer Continental Shelf." It outlined a need to facilitate "the generation of reliable and affordable electricity...with particular attention to oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, biofuels, critical mineral, and nuclear energy resources." It also rolled back electric vehicle programs in the name of "consumer choice," despite data showing EVs have steadily gained popularity among consumers, including in areas without incentives.
Trump's first-day orders are also contradicted by the fact that experts say there is no national energy emergency, and that America's energy resources, including oil, have already been unleashed at record rates under former President Joe Biden.
The reality instead is that — in addition to incentivizing a domestic clean energy boom that started with funding from his Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act and ended with billions in private investments for manufacturing initiatives across the U.S. by the end of his term — Biden approved more oil drilling permits than Trump did in his first term. As a result, oil production in the U.S. surged to never-before-seen highs on Biden's watch.
Market analysts say this means Trump's orders may not influence oil drilling much at all, since oil companies won't want to produce more oil right now if it won't make them more money.
More: What executive orders did Trump sign? What to know about his first actions as president
Arizona is also unlikely to benefit directly from more oil drilling.
As the state with the second-highest solar energy potential but no meaningful oil and gas reserves, Arizona ranks ninth among state beneficiaries of Biden's clean energy incentives, according to an analysis by the organization Climate Power. In the two and a half years since Congress appropriated nearly $370 billion to expand America's energy dominance in less polluting ways, Arizona has welcomed 30 new solar, battery storage and electric vehicle projects that brought more than 18,000 clean energy jobs and nearly $13 billion in new investments to the state.
Those gains for Arizona's economy and humanity's climate are now threatened by Trump's drilling agenda, experts say. What's less certain is whether his new orders will withstand legal challenges or exactly how they might play out.
More: 'These are climate change fires': As Arizona lends help to LA, experts assess the blame
Monday's orders to suppress fossil fuel alternatives came as no surprise to Arizona State University law professor and clean energy expert Troy Rule. For the same reasons market analysts cited, he views Trump's moves to fulfill "drill, baby, drill" campaign promises as unlikely to shift oil and gas production, prices or the clean energy economy in the short-term, especially in Arizona.
"The reality is that U.S. oil supplies are relatively robust today and, due to moderate prices, many U.S. oil companies are already extracting oil and gas at below their maximum capacity," Rule told The Republic.
Trump's other actions to slow and constrain the country's transition to renewables — including a 60-day suspension of renewable energy authorizations issued Monday by his nominee for Secretary of the Interior — could, eventually, shore up market demand for oil and gas, Rule said. But Trump's ability to do that will, in large part, depend on the outcome of expected lawsuits challenging his authority to snatch back clean energy funds authorized by Congress under Biden that have had broad bipartisan support.
"I don't see a major short-run impact on solar investment within Arizona, which is already constrained a lot by state-level policies, from Trump's day-one orders," Rule said.
Hannah Safford, associate director of climate and environment at the Federation of American Scientists, agrees. She recently served as director for transportation and resilience in Biden's White House Climate Policy Office and saw projects at various stages across the country leverage funds from its clean energy investments, which they estimated at $124 billion in Arizona.
"It's largely market forces, not White House policy decisions, that are driving expansion of clean energy in Arizona," Safford said. "Solar and wind generation in Arizona grew by nearly 200% over the past decade, a period that includes the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations. That's because when the costs of solar panels and wind turbines keep dropping, building out renewables in a big, sunny state just makes economic sense."
More: A solar ban, a gas power plant and the rural retirees firing back at dirty energy
Rule sees more near-term risk to progress on building EV charging infrastructure across the state and to EV manufacturing investments if the tax credits approved by Congress are ultimately repealed. Arizona currently has just over 4,000 alternative vehicle fueling stations, according to U.S. Department of Energy data, and the electric vehicle industry has been growing alongside solar in the state as a result of Biden's policies.
One of those projects, by EVelution Energy, brought 360 jobs and a free worker training program to Yuma County, which has the highest unemployment rate in the state at 14.2%. That effort to help meet demands in the electric vehicle market by building the United States' first solar-powered, battery-grade cobalt processing facility may now be under threat from a clause in Trump's "Unleashing American Energy" order that eliminates incentives for electric vehicle makers and consumers. That order also attempts to pause the disbursement of federal funds to projects like this.
Kirsten Engel, an environmental law professor at the University of Arizona and a former Arizona state senator, says it remains unclear under what circumstances those funds would be most at risk. The Impoundment Control Act of 1974, which limits presidential efforts to "try to claw back money that has already been appropriated," she said, could keep some projects in Arizona that are not aligned with Trump's objectives afloat.
Certain newly announced federal EV funds could be safe, Engel guessed, referring to $205 million awarded to Arizona in October for charging stations along highways and in communities without access.
'It will be case by case, but any step after this to try to stop the transfer of money that's already been obligated will run into legal challenges," Engel said. "Many scholars say this is not a power the president has. The power of the purse is a power that Congress has."
Both Engel and Rule expect to see those legal fights over clean energy purse strings start soon. But they will take time. Even if Trump's orders are eventually overturned, delays could still stall out Arizona's growing electric vehicle industry and its ability to meet global demand for EVs if companies hesitate in anticipation of Trump pressing ahead.
"Some U.S. auto manufacturers had already put the breaks on some of their EV-focused investments," Rule said.
More: U.S. Rep. Greg Stanton blasts Trump executive order he says could cost Arizona billions
Still, from her vantage point in Biden's White House, Safford doesn't expect Trump freezing disbursements, even if it's effective, to broadly affect Arizona's clean energy momentum.
"The truth is that most of that money is already out the door," she said. "Unobligated funds from these laws are largely unrelated to clean energy."
So what, then, was the purpose of Trump's flurry of anti-clean energy executive orders on Monday?
'I think he's catering to his oil and gas industry donors and he is throwing them a bone showing that he is going to help promote their interests," Engel said. (The U.S. Senate in May launched an investigation into Trump's promises to oil companies that donated to his campaign.) "And that is just not the direction that we need to go in. It's not in Arizona's interest. We don't have oil and gas production here in Arizona, but we can be the Persian Gulf of solar."
In addition to not recognizing the new American energy boom already unleashed, Engel thinks Trump's actions during his first week in office also seem counterproductive to his stated support for American manufacturing.
'It is very inconsistent," she said. "The ("Unleashing") executive order talks about building manufacturing capacity in the United States, it talks about increasing our energy production, it talks about lowering costs for consumers. All of these objectives are met through the Inflation Reduction Act and its investments in clean energy manufacturing and in promoting and supporting clean energy jobs."
Science and policy experts also view Trump's first-week orders as harmful for the American worker.
"Efforts to roll back energy progress are only going to hurt American workers," Safford said. "The solar industry alone employs over 22,000 Arizonans, plus tens of thousands more in wind, nuclear, electric vehicle and battery manufacturing, and other cornerstones of the clean economy."
And they certainly won't help the U.S. have "the very cleanest air and cleanest water," as Trump has promised, according to environmentalists like Sandy Bahr, who directs the Grand Canyon Chapter of the Sierra Club.
"Arizonans did not vote to have our air dirtier, our water more polluted, or our clean energy economy harmed or destroyed, yet the Trump administration is taking steps to do just that," Bahr told The Republic. "While most of Trump's executive orders will not have immediate impact, they set a tone and raise many questions about whether funding will be there for projects to clean up water or provide clean energy to our communities."
Read our climate series: The latest from Joan Meiners at azcentral: climate coverage from Arizona and the Southwest
On Monday, Trump signed one more executive order that many view as primarily a symbolic political snubbing of the previous administration, with harmful side effects for the economic and physical well-being, and even international standing, of Americans.
"The Executive Order pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement puts the U.S. on a very short list of non-participating countries, including Libya and Iran, and could somewhat erode broader global support for continued action under the Agreement," Rule said. "The US was already struggling to further reduce its greenhouse gas emissions as energy demand has soared over the past couple of years, and this new action will likely only exacerbate those challenges."
With solar and wind already the cheapest forms of energy being produced, "it makes all the sense in the world to continue these investments," Engel said. Continuing other efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also makes sense, scientists say, as the best way to preserve the livability of the only home we have.
'We have just been devastated by what we're seeing in L.A. with the fires," she said. "Here in Arizona, we are not immune to the very real cost of climate change."
Joan Meiners is the climate news and storytelling reporter at The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Her work has also appeared in Discover Magazine, National Geographic, ProPublica and the Washington Post Magazine. Before becoming a journalist, she completed a doctorate in ecology. Follow Joan on Twitter at @beecycles or email her at [e-mail].
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: How will Trump's climate, environment orders affect Arizona?