‘Panicking': Republicans worry about closer-than-expected Florida race
MSNBC's Symone Sanders interviews the 'math teacher giving Republicans in the state of Florida a run for their money,' Democrat Josh Weil. Weil, who is running for Trump's National Security adviser Mike Waltz open seat, says that Republicans have made it 'nearly impossible to afford to live in Florida.'
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Washington Post
16 minutes ago
- Washington Post
How a Democrat turned independent could shake up a key governor's race
Good morning, Early Birds. Congrats to the formidable Coco Gauff — and to Spike Lee, who somehow attends every sporting event. Send tips to earlytips@ Thanks for waking up with us. In today's edition … The Detroit mayor looks to go statewide … A ski manufacturer jumps into a run for Congress … Trump's price promises take center stage in a new digital ad campaign … but first … President Donald Trump bypassed California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) this weekend by ordering the deployment of 2,000 California National Guard troops to quell protests against immigration raids in the Los Angeles area. The move was swiftly condemned by political leaders in the state and across the country and is the latest sign of how Trump plans to push the envelope on nearly every power afforded to the presidency. Justin Jouvenal and Alex Horton reported that Trump 'invoked a section of the Armed Forces Act that allows the president to bypass a governor's authority over the National Guard and call those troops into federal service when he considers it necessary to repel an invasion or suppress a rebellion.' Newsom 'formally requested' that the Trump administration return the troops to the governor's command Sunday, labeling its moves 'the acts of a dictator, not a President.' Newsom also said he would file a lawsuit Monday against the Trump administration over the deployment, which he called 'immoral' and 'unconstitutional.' This will probably be the story of the week, with Trump's use of this power increasing the likelihood that he does it again in other cities and jurisdictions. 'We're going to have troops everywhere,' Trump said Sunday when asked about sending soldiers to California. Pressed on 'what's the bar for sending in the Marines,' Trump said, 'The bar is what I think it is.' Michigan's gubernatorial election next year was always going to be one of the most closely watched contests in the nation. And that was before the popular mayor of Detroit, a former Democrat, launched an independent bid. 'I think about the 2016 convention and the whole thing was Love Trumps Hate. And you look at what the Democratic Party has become, it has become a party of intolerance,' said Mike Duggan, the Detroit mayor who left his party late last year to announce a third-party bid. 'If you don't agree with the exact doctrine, you know, you are vilified, you are left out. And I think it has just been turning off more and more Americans, more and more Democrats.' Duggan added that Republicans 'of course have a lot of anger,' too. So it 'felt like a time in this country where people might want a different choice.' Duggan, who was first elected in 2013, has long been seen as a likely candidate for governor. But with a crowded Democratic primary — including Jocelyn Benson, Michigan's secretary of state, and Garlin Gilchrist, the state's lieutenant governor — Duggan opted for a third path, leading Democrats to accuse him of political expediency. (U.S. Rep. John James and Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt are the leading Republicans in the contest.) No matter his reasons, Duggan could be a threat to shake up the race. 'Right now,' Duggan told us, 'my goal is 20 percent from the Democratic side, 20 percent from the Republican side, and win with 40 percent of the vote.' Duggan's mayoral tenure has been defined by a rebirth of Detroit, with a focus on bringing in new jobs, greening the economy and reversing a decades-long population trend. He told us he 'would have been supportive' of Trump's tariff plan 'if it were done right' by targeting manufacturing jobs that fled to Mexico and China, but that the 'Canada tariffs made no sense.' 'Trump has zeroed in on an issue that needs to be addressed,' he said, but the president went too far in his plan. Duggan was a vocal surrogate for the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris presidential campaigns in 2024, regularly touting the Democratic duo for bringing 'Detroit's recovery back 10 years ahead of time' and even posting weeks before he left the party that 'KAMALA HARRIS is the LEADER we need to build on the progress we've made!' Duggan says he thought at the time that Harris was a 'better choice' and that he still believes it. But he now says he campaigned for her while harboring serious doubts about her and the state of his former party. Democrats are taking note of his campaign. Last month, the Democratic Governors Association timed the release of a digital ad accusing Duggan of corruption to the mayor's keynote speech at the Mackinac Policy Conference. The ad centers on a story from the Detroit News tying the mayor with 'events that outed a confidential FBI informant.' The attack raised eyebrows in Michigan, signaling that his former party is at least mildly concerned about what he could mean to the contest. Duggan hit back at the conference, calling his former party 'predictable.' 'Mike Duggan is already cracking under pressure and lashing out on the campaign trail,' said Sam Newton, a spokesperson for the DGA. 'The DGA beat attention-grabbing third-party candidates in Kansas in 2018 and Oregon in 2022 — and we're confident that we'll do it again in Michigan this cycle.' A spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association declined to comment on Duggan's campaign. Duggan told us he 'couldn't stop laughing' when he first saw the ad. 'It does seem kind of early,' he said. 'They only know one play. This is like the old Michigan football teams that ran the ball up the middle all the time. They only know one thing.' Polls show the mayor pulling support from Democrats and Republicans, something Duggan and his team regularly bring up. It's early, however, and not only has neither party selected a nominee, but the tens of millions of dollars that will be spent on this race have yet to harden voters' partisan preferences. Duggan has a tall hill to climb, both because he is, in his own words, basically unknown by people outside the Detroit metropolitan area and because history does not favor independent candidates for governor. The last time an independent won a governor's mansion was over a decade ago — Bill Walker, a Republican turned independent, won in Alaska in 2014 — and while there are high-profile examples of success, like independent Jesse Ventura in 1998, there are plenty of failures. In 2022, for example, independent Betsy Johnson garnered considerable attention as a possible spoiler for the Democratic candidate in Oregon, typically considered to be a safe blue state. Johnson wound up winning only 8.6 percent of the vote, not enough to stop Democrat Tina Kotek from defeating her Republican opponent by about 3.5 percentage points. 'Voting for an independent hasn't been people's experience, but I am finding … the idea is appealing to people,' Duggan said. He noted that when he declared for mayor ahead of the 2013 campaign, people counted him out before they got to know him because Detroit hadn't had a White mayor since the early 1970s. 'I can feel the same thing happening here. People are now really starting to understand.' Hi, it's Jacob Bogage from the economic policy desk diving into a key question surrounding Trump and Republicans' massive tax and immigration bill. Will this bill really reduce the national deficit? That's been Republican leaders' talking point the past week: There are two issues at play here. The first is Vought and Johnson's claims about spending cuts. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act cuts $1.3 trillion in spending over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office — there's additional savings if you count new revenue, too. Johnson and Vought are asserting that by enacting those budget cuts, Republicans will 'bend the curve' on the national debt, or get the trend line on the debt (it's basically a vertical line now) to flatten out. But spending cuts in and of themselves are not deficit reducers when they are paired with new spending. The bill increases spending by hundreds of billions of dollars and cuts taxes by $2.4 trillion (plus another $500 billion, if you factor in interest costs), according to the Congressional Budget Office. That's more than enough to wipe out the projected savings and add significantly to the deficit. The other issue is Thune's claim about projected growth. That is based on the Laffer curve, a popular conservative economic theory that posits there's a Goldilocks zone for tax rates that maximizes government revenue and private-sector growth. Beyond that zone, high tax rates crowd out growth, according to the theory, and actually diminish government revenue because of smaller economic output. Like every economic theory, there's some truth and some problems with the Laffer curve. The bigger issue is how it's applied to this bill. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was loaded with more growth incentives than the current bill, and it still came up short on paying for itself by stimulating economic activity. Help me cover the tax fight, the IRS, DOGE and more. Follow me on Bluesky: @ And send news tips securely on Signal: jacobbogage.87. Can we make a deal? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with representatives from the Chinese government today to discuss a possible trade deal between the two superpowers. While the Trump administration promised in April to strike 90 trade deals in 90 days — a goal it is dramatically behind on — no deal would be more significant than one with China. Somos Votantes, an organization focused on civic and voter engagement within Latino communities, tells us it is kicking off a six-figure bilingual digital ad today focused on Trump's failure to live up to his promise of lowering prices. 'Donald Trump promised to lower prices on day one — groceries, health-care costs — but what has he actually delivered?' a narrator asks in the ads titled 'Promised'/'Prometió' that will run on YouTube and digital streaming services in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. 'Ridiculous trade wars with allies like Mexico, Canada and now the world, making prices go up for everyone.' The ad also hits Trump for 'letting Elon Musk slash good jobs and destroy cost-saving programs. … This is not what he promised.' 'This isn't about partisanship,' said Melissa Morales, founder and president of Somos Votantes. 'It's about promises that were made and broken.' Many of you are open to voting for candidates outside the traditional two-party system. 'We should all be voting 'Independent,'' said Terri McKenney, a Realtor in Gilbert, Arizona. 'The current two-party system is like a ballgame where the players are only interested in winning. Neither team particularly cares about the fans and their fate. Courtney Marsh, a reader in Springfield, Virginia, remembered studying former independent governor Jesse Ventura when she was in high school in Minneapolis. 'We studied the election in school, and I remember collectively my class was stunned by the results but intrigued by what would happen next,' she wrote. 'It has since made me at least take a deeper look at independent candidates, especially for state-level offices.' And Kristen Smith contributed the viewpoint of the two main parties: 'In a two-party nation like the USA, Independent voters are wasting their votes.' West Central Tribune (Willmar, Minnesota): When the Trump administration put out a list of immigration sanctuary jurisdictions, officials in Stearns County, Minnesota, were surprised to be on it. Las Vegas Review Journal: Nevada's legislative session did not end well, highlighting the partisan divisions in a state that will be home to a competitive gubernatorial contest next year. Ventura County Star (Camarillo, California): The feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — in addition to playing out like a juicy political drama — could have a dramatic impact on California and the state's electric vehicle market. We plan to write about how cuts to Medicaid could have a dramatic impact on rural hospitals later this week. Do you rely on a rural hospital to get care? Do you worry about the solvency of that hospital? Do you use Medicaid to get care from that hospital? Let us know at earlytips@ Thanks for reading. You can follow Dan and Matthew on X: @merica and @matthewichoi.
Washington Post
23 minutes ago
- Washington Post
Why Musk is vulnerable in conflict with Trump
In the days after the 2024 election, Elon Musk seemed unstoppable. After plowing at least $288 million into helping elect President Donald Trump and other Republicans, the payoff for the Tesla and SpaceX CEO was immediate. Tesla's stock soared, making the world's richest man even richer. His influence in Washington was incomparable, and government support for his ambitions — whether launching spaceships to Mars or autonomous cars across America — seemed more plausible than ever.
Vox
26 minutes ago
- Vox
Trump's big, beautiful bill, explained in 5 charts
covers politics Vox. She first joined Vox in 2019, and her work has also appeared in Politico, Washington Monthly, and the New Republic. President Donald Trump, joined by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, speaks to members of the media as he arrives for a House Republican meeting at the Capitol on May 20, fight over President Donald Trump's so-called big, beautiful bill is turning ugly. After passing the GOP-controlled House, the bill has moved to the Senate, where Republicans are facing a bitter divide over how to balance their competing priorities. They want to extend and expand Trump's tax cuts, which disproportionately benefit the rich and come at a steep price tag, as well as bolster immigration enforcement and defense spending. However, some are reluctant to do so while increasing the national debt by almost $2.6 trillion and slashing Medicaid benefits. Republicans want to pass the bill by July 4 through a complex process known as budget reconciliation, which requires only 51 votes to pass. There are 53 Republicans in the Senate, but it's unclear whether they will be able to resolve their disagreements in time. Some Republican senators, including Ron Johnson (R-WI.) and Rand Paul (R-KY), have criticized the current version of the bill as unreasonable. Trump megadonor (and newly sworn enemy) Elon Musk has called on lawmakers to rework the legislation, which he dubbed a 'disgusting abomination.' 'Call your Senator, Call your Congressman, Bankrupting America is NOT ok! KILL the BILL,' Musk said in a post on X Wednesday. Today, Explained Understand the world with a daily explainer plus the most compelling stories of the day, compiled by news editor Sean Collins. Email (required) Sign Up By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. House Speaker Mike Johnson has said that Musk is 'flat wrong' about the bill and that there is not enough time to go back to the drawing board. So, what exactly is in the bill, and what does it mean — for the deficit and for Americans? We break it down, in charts. The bill would cause the US deficit to skyrocket This spending bill is expensive, and short of truly drastic cuts to nearly all social programs (and perhaps not even with such cuts), it's not clear that the government could feasibly pass it without increasing the national debt. The version that passed the House would raise the deficit by trillions of dollars over the next decade, not accounting for the potential effects the bill would have on the US economy. That spending is concentrated between 2025 and 2028, coinciding with the next presidential election. Republicans once campaigned against raising the national debt during the Obama administration, framing it as a national security threat and a burden to future generations. But it's no longer the rallying cry it once was. There are reasons to be concerned about a growing national debt. As my colleague Dylan Matthews writes, the bond market is already bristling at the prospect of such a significant increase in the deficit, a warning of potential economic downturn or even further increasing debt due to higher servicing costs if the bill becomes law. Tax cuts are what make the bill so expensive Trump wants to build on the tax cuts he passed during his first term. They are set to expire this year if Congress does not act, and the spending bill would keep them in place. It would also add some new ones, including the elimination of taxes on tips. That is going to cost the US government. A breakdown of the bill's budgetary effects published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that the House Ways and Means Committee, which presides over tax policy, would be permitted to contribute an additional $3.8 trillion to the deficit — far more than any other House committee. That's at least in part because tax revenue would be lower under the bill. Meanwhile, the Armed Services and Homeland Security committees are the only others where Trump is seeking significant increases in spending as he seeks to deliver on his campaign promise of 'mass deportations' with assistance from the military. Any spending cuts in other areas aren't nearly enough to counterbalance the resulting increase in the US deficit. That would likely require Republicans to slash public benefits even further than they already have in this bill. While they haven't gone so far as to touch Social Security benefits, they have gone after Medicaid and insurance plans under the Affordable Care Act. Millions could become uninsured under the spending bill Republicans have also included measures in the bill that would greatly increase the number of people without health insurance, according to a CBO estimate. One provision allows enhanced premium tax credits for ACA insurance plans to lapse, which would increase premiums for millions of Americans who rely on them. After the Covid-19 stimulus bill was signed in 2021, these tax credits became available to anyone whose premiums were over 8.5 percent of their household income — not just people earning up to 400 percent of the federal poverty line. Enrollment in ACA plans subsequently doubled to 24.3 million people between 2020 and 2025. The House bill would allow those expanded tax credits to expire this year, effectively driving people out of the ACA marketplaces with higher costs. Another provision would significantly decrease Medicaid enrollment by creating a work requirement for people under the age of 64 who do not have a dependent under 7 years old. While not directly slashing Medicaid benefits, the work requirement would create additional barriers to Medicaid access, including administrative hurdles that could result in lower enrollment even among people who do work. (It's worth noting that most nondisabled Medicaid recipients already work.) Some states have already implemented similar work requirements with disappointing results. Arkansas and Georgia saw Medicaid enrollments plummet thereafter, with a court eventually overturning the Arkansas requirements on the basis that they violated federal Medicaid law. The spending bill disproportionately benefits the rich Under the tax cuts passed by Trump during his first term, the top 1 percent of earners saw the most significant gains, both in dollar amounts and as a percentage of their incomes. This time is no different. Top earners will again profit significantly from the House spending bill, according to the CBO. The lowest earners, meanwhile, will see their household resources shrink, primarily due to reduced access to public benefits programs such as Medicaid and SNAP and higher ACA insurance premiums. The bill could have a big impact on immigrant populations and their families abroad The House bill advances numerous provisions targeting immigrants and undermining their US-citizen relatives, from restricting access to public benefits for families in which at least one person is undocumented to imposing new fees on asylum-seekers. However, there is one that would have a sizable impact well beyond America's borders: a new tax on remittances, the payments that immigrants typically send to their families in their home countries. The US is the largest source of remittances worldwide. Some of the top receiving countries include America's neighbors in Central and South America — countries that have produced high numbers of migrants in recent years. That's significant because remittances have historically accounted for much larger sums than any foreign aid provided by the US and represent efficient, direct payments to individuals who can spend that money on what they need, mitigating economic incentives for them to migrate.
