As colleges fret over fewer high school grads, University of Tennessee expands growth plan

Yahoo

26-06-2025

With fierce competition among major universities − and with an anticipated population decline expected to make competition fiercer − the University of Tennessee at Knoxville has raised the bar for its already lofty 2030 enrollment goal, as campus leaders remain focused on luring and retaining talented Tennessee students for years to come.
UT already had set a goal of enrolling 41,000 students on campus in 2030, a figure that would help the UT System realize its own lofty goal of enrolling 71,000 students across all campuses. At the start of this decade, UT enrolled 30,559 students to begin the fall 2020 semester, and almost halfway through UT enrolled 38,728 students for the fall 2024 semester.
Now, the state's flagship university is looking to enroll 14,000 students across online undergraduate and graduate programs in 2030. Combined, the 2030 enrollment goal is now around 55,000 students attending UT in Knoxville and online, part of a strategic plan to ensure the university stands out among its peers through the new decade.
The looming "enrollment cliff," a time in which the population of high school graduates will begin to decline, has universities across the country worried about recruiting students.
In UT's favor, the percentage of Tennessee's high school graduates is projected to increase by 2041. But that's likely to result in out-of-state institutions recruiting even harder to attract Tennessee high schoolers, UT Chancellor Donde Plowman included in her upcoming presentation.
The presentation covers her "2030 Integrated Enrollment Plan" to guide UT toward reaching its growth goals, which is not just about the number. It's about improving the overall experience of attending UT to provide top-notch education for students, according to the presentation included in agenda documents.
Plowman will present her plan to the UT System Board of Trustees during its annual meeting, scheduled for June 30 and July 1 in Chattanooga.
To meet its target, UT has identified three goals to reach 55,000 students enrolled in person and online:
"Deliver an Exceptional Volunteer Experience" - Improving degree programs while ensuring every student feels like they belong at UT.
"Expand Access to the Modern Land Grant" - Removing entry barriers and giving Tennesseans the opportunity to earn a degree.
"Advance Tennessee through Workforce and Community Impact" - Prepare students for their future careers while aligning with workforce needs in the state.
The university has experienced record growth in recent years with a large pool of first-year students selecting UT and then sticking around, with a record breaking 91.9% retention rate. UT's retention rate was stuck in the 80% range for years prior to Plowman's appointment in 2019.
For comparison, the University of Florida's retention rate is around 97%.
Despite the anticipated national "enrollment cliff," UT got its hands on some promising data from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education that projects the number of Tennessee high school graduates will increase 15% by 2041. The South is the only region projected to see an increase (approximately 3%), while a decrease between 16% to 20% is expected in the West, Midwest and Northeast regions.
Plowman has said to expect a dip in the number of Tennessee high school graduates in 2028, but all of the data suggests UT's enrollment goals are attainable. It also means competition will increase as other universities begin recruiting harder than ever in the Volunteer State.
UT already has experienced extreme growth in the total number of students enrolled, jumping from the low 30,000 range in the fall 2020 semester all the way to 38,728 students for the fall 2024 semester.
UT projects that 40,705 students will enroll at the university for the upcoming fall semester, with 37,205 students in-person and 3,500 students online. The 2030 online enrollment goal will be boosted by UT's partnership with Arizona State University to improve and increase UT's infrastructure for online education.
UT projects to reach 70,000 applications from prospective students for 2030. Plowman's presentation also will cover other big-picture goals to keep growing UT: expanding to more than 70 online programs, graduating more than 50,000 students and growing the six-year graduation rate for in-person students to 80%, to name a few.
UT will prioritize Tennesseans in its efforts to increase enrollment, aiming to maintain a first-year enrollment of more than 4,000 in-state students each year. UT has strategies in place to accomplish this, such as its flagship schools and guaranteed admissions programs, along with state programs like the HOPE scholarship.
Keenan Thomas reports for the Knox News business growth and development team. You can reach him by email at [e-mail].
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: University of Tennessee plans competitive growth in student enrollment