Israel-Iran ceasefire: Tehran's resistance sends a message to the world
On Monday night, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran that took effect within hours.
Of course, as with any of Trump's schemes, this has to be taken with a sizeable grain of caution. But for now at least, this development appears to have ended two hectic weeks that started with Israel attacking Iran.
We then saw Tehran retaliating, the US jumping into the fray by striking Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran's largely symbolic response against US military bases in the region.
Israel had already signalled its wish for de-escalation last weekend. Perhaps Israeli planners had not anticipated the harsh Iranian response, or had put excessive confidence in the damage inflicted upon the Islamic Republic's s military capabilities.
It also emerged that US envoy Steve Witkoff had been maintaining direct contact with the Iranian side the entire time.
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What has occurred in the last few days between the US and Iran looks more like theatrics than war, similar to the choreographed clash that played out five years ago after General Qassem Soleimani's assassination.
US political leaders made bombastic claims about delivering a devastating blow to Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Military assessments, however, appeared more cautious about the damage inflicted, especially in the case of the Fordow enrichment site, which is buried under a mountain. Time will tell, but the general sentiment does not seem optimistic.
Beyond western media spin
Fordow is the core of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, with advanced centrifuges that could enrich uranium up to the military threshold of 90 percent. Iran is already estimated to own 400 kilogrammes of uranium enriched to 60 percent.
To increase it to 90 percent seems eminently feasible, but this does not imply that Iran will soon own a nuclear bomb; rather, it has enough material to potentially assemble a few, but according to some estimates, that process could take a couple of years.
This past March, the vast US intelligence community, through director Tulsi Gabbard, assured Congress that Iran was not in the process of building nuclear weapons - a conclusion also reached, amid other clumsy moves, by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Israel's failure to subdue Iran shows it can no longer dictate the regional order Read More »
Last weekend, by ordering strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, Trump ignored this assessment. When challenged by journalists, his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, remarked that the intelligence assessment was irrelevant. Tens of billions of dollars spent annually by US taxpayers for the biggest intelligence apparatus on earth, just to see top officials dismiss their findings as irrelevant.
Hours after Iran carried out its largely symbolic retaliation on Monday, a deal was announced.
If the ceasefire stands, and if from here it paves the way for a new nuclear deal, Trump will bombastically portray himself as the winner, the dealmaker, the man of peace - while also recovering some credibility among his disappointed Maga base.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may emerge as the biggest loser. He apparently did not achieve the destruction of Iran's nuclear programme, nor was he able to drag the US into a prolonged military confrontation with Iran - and it is highly likely that his decades-long dream of regime change in Tehran will remain just that: a dream.
Beyond all the western media spinning, however, the real winner - unrecognised of course - could be Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran ultimately resisted the joint military pressure of Israel and the US, displaying a remarkable capacity to retaliate by severely depleting Israel's missile-defence system. This will be the key takeaway for the region, and for those around the world - especially in the Global South - who grasp its significance.
As for Europe, the dystopian statements of its top leaders issued after the Israeli-US strikes on Iran will go into history's dustbin for their sheer hypocrisy.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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The National
16 minutes ago
- The National
Ceasefire with Iran gives Israelis a chance to return from temporary Cyprus haven
Police at Limassol's port were jumpy as Israelis who had sought a safe haven and were stranded by weeks of airline disruption arrived on Thursday in dribs and drabs to get on a cruise ship to take them home. Many had spent weeks away from home after Israel closed its airspace to commercial flights but were boarding the cruise ship Crown Iris. It is conducting a final repatriation voyage to Ashdod port as operations at Ben Gurion resume. The 11 deck Panamanian-registered ship has ferried 2,000 to Israel on each of its voyages. Israelis are purchasing real estate in sensitive areas that pose a threat to national security Stefanos Stefanou On the dockside concourse a set of polite, if slightly stressed local Cypriot officers, took passport details and made a few calls to their bosses. There have been reports of Iranian-linked sleeper agents on the island and last week police arrested a suspect conducting surveillance against the nearby British airbase, RAF Akrotiri. A statement said a British citizen was being investigated for ties to Iran in attacking the base. Once they have taken details, the senior officer of the three, apologetically nodding in the direction of the ship, said: 'You understand this is sensitive.' He then made it clear reporting from the scene 'is over'. The sailing has been organised by Israeli national airline El Al and comes as flights began departing Cyprus for Israel after it began the phased reopening its airspace in the wake of a ceasefire with Iran. Israel first closed its airspace on June 13 when its troops launched their attack on Iran, leaving and 100,000 to 150,000 Israelis stranded abroad. Speaking as she prepared to get ready to board the ship back in her hotel, stranded El Al passenger Nesher Drohah told The Nationa l she has been out of Israel since June 6. 'We travelled to Macedonia, Kosovo and Albania and we were meant to be there until June 18 when the war broke out,' she said. 'But we've been stuck in Tirana until two days ago so now we're here to go home by boat.' She said it she is anxious to return to Israel after people she knows had a narrow escape from an Iranian missile but lost their home. 'He's OK but the house is not OK, the car is not OK,' she said. 'For that reason we were trying to fly back to get home fast and I hope tomorrow we will be home.' Ms Drohah said she backed the decision by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to launch an attack on Iran. She said that 'Iran is dangerous for all over the world but for us the most'. Cyprus has become a key transit point for Israelis wishing to return home in the absence of direct flights there and also the foreign nationals looking to escape the conflict. These include UK citizens first evacuated by the UK's Royal Air Force to the Akrotiri airbase. It is further along the same peninsula as Limassol's port. There are frequent flights to Cyprus from Israel, the result of the island's popularity as a tourist destination for Israelis. At different points of tension including the months since the October 7 assault by Hamas that led to Israel's Gaza operation, Cyprus has been a point of refuge for those who want to get out of the danger zone. The spillover from the Israeli assault on Gaza has seen a steady flow of Israelis arrive in Cyprus. While there is a ceasefire with Iran, the warplanes, drones and artillery attacks continue against the Palestinians both in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. The Cyprus chief Rabbi Arie Zeev Raskin has previously said that about 6,500 Israelis were in Cyprus after leaving the war zone for the east Mediterranean island, the closest European nation to Israel. Others had travelled there to catch flight or boat trip back to their country. Many Israelis have now settled in Cyprus and bought property there. There are now six Chabad Houses, which are community centres and also places of worship, on the island. Israeli restaurants cater for compatriots in the handsome Mediterranean port city that attracts tens of thousands of tourists every year. Targeted purchases The presence of Israelis has provoked a backlash. This week, a local political party Akel, singled out the purchase of land by them, as part of its highlighting of foreign land purchases by non-EU nationals. Stefanos Stefanou, the left-wing party's leader, accused Israelis of making 'targeted purchases' of land with the aim of creating gated communities in Larnaca and Limassol. 'Our country is being taken away from us,' he said. 'Israelis are purchasing real estate in sensitive areas that pose a threat to national security.' The party has put forward legislation in parliament aimed at restricting 'golden visas', which issued to non-EU nationals for an investment of at least €300,000 ($351,000) in real estate or company shareholding. Mr Stefanou appeared to focus on Israelis buying land claiming 'Zionist schools are being built' and quoting what he said were media reports 'suggesting that Israel is preparing a 'backyard' in Cyprus'. At Limassol's Chabad House, Rabbi Yitzchok Lapidus told The National that recently he has seen an increase in what he described as 'antisemitic graffiti'. He is one of three Rabbis, who work there under leadership of Rabbi Yair Baitz, and also with their wives. But for Rabbi Lapidus, his mind has been focused on providing food and shelter for the 'thousands' of Israelis and majority, he estimates, have come through the doors of the Chabad Houses in Cyprus. A traditional Israeli breakfast of fried eggs, salad and bread was laid on in the cafe next door just in case any travellers arrived that morning. Such has been the desperation of Israelis to get home, many have resorted to unusual methods, explained the Rabbi. 'They tried to go to Israel by yacht, by helicopter. There are a lot of families who were stuck here and need help to get out because of an emergency. People needed medicine, there were pregnant women,' he told The National. 'Some of them went for one day or for business and they were stuck for a week, two weeks. In the marina area of the city there one yacht charterer who asked not to be identified confirmed that her company had leased boats out to Israelis. 'It was our company that did most of this. There was a lot of demand last week and through the weekend but that's now over as people can get flights.' But another yacht charter company said it turned down requests by Israelis to charter yachts. 'We had a lot of inquiries from people who wanted to go to Israel but we decided it would be too risky because of the war but I know others were happy.' Omer Gonen is one of the unlucky ones who was only meant to be out of Israel for weekend. He came to Limassol with his wife and two children, along with their friends, two weekends ago but has been stuck here. 'We just wanted a weekend holiday but we're still here,' he said. 'We're now booked on a very expensive flight on Saturday. It's good to be going home now, finally but it's been terrible here.' Sitting on the floor with his two friends at Larnaca airport, Uriel, 24, from Jerusalem, explained they had just been released from the army and were about to return from a holiday in Tblisi, in Georgia when they became stuck. 'We had been on holiday for two to three weeks and then we got stuck,' he said. 'We came from Tblisi to here because it's easy for us to get a visa.' Uriel explained that him and his friends were about to board a special flight organised by a wealthy Israeli, which was exempt from the ban on commercial flights. He said their families 'were in the safest place but it's still a worry' but he added 'we've had two and a half years of war'. Meanwhile, the first RAF flight set off from Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv on Monday afternoon carrying 63 British passengers, who landed in Cyprus and were then flown back to Birmingham Airport, where they arrived in the early hours of Tuesday. In the days since, more Britons have made the journey home as part of the Government's evacuation strategy. Meanwhile, the US has helped about 400 of its citizens and others to fly out of Israel since Saturday amid conflict with Iran and hopes to accommodate more in the coming days, a senior State Department official said.
The National
29 minutes ago
- The National
Israel's economic losses as a result of Iran war estimated at $6bn
The total economic losses to Israel following the 12-day war with Iran are estimated at around $6 billion, with infrastructure hit particularly hard. The war is likely to cost Israel about 1 per cent of its gross domestic product, or about 20 billion shekels ($5.9 billion), Israel Central Bank Governor Amir Yaron told Bloomberg television. According to Naser Mufrej, professor of finance and economics at the Arab American University in Ramallah, along with heavy damage to property, the total losses also include revenue affected due to the brief closure of Israel's airspace as well as the impact on manufacturing and agriculture sectors. 'All productive sectors were affected heavily during the war,' Mr Mufrej told The National. Israel and Iran entered into a fragile ceasefire this week after days of attacking each other. The US also entered the war with a strike on Iran's nuclear sites, after which the President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire. The conflict began on June 13 when Israel launched a wave of strikes across Iran, killing senior military officials and hitting nuclear sites. Iran also launched retaliatory missile strikes on Israel, hitting a number of targets including residential buildings, a hospital and other infrastructure in Tel Aviv and other cities. Israel, which has also been attacking Gaza since October 2023, is expected to take a hit to economic growth this year, according to analysts. "Our forecast for 2025 [for Israel's economy] was downgraded from 3.3 per cent real GDP growth to 1.7 per cent real growth right after the military conflict began between Israel and Iran almost two weeks ago," Ralf Wiegert, head of Mena Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "So a reduction of 1.6 percentage points is probably at the high end of the spectrum and could be reduced further as Israel is going back to full capacity over the next couple of days." Mr Wiegert also said that "replenishing the military arsenal will be more costly, which will increase the budget deficit in 2025 from the 5.7 per cent of GDP which we had projected previously". With missile strikes having damaged vital infrastructure, military spending will push the country's fiscal deficit from 5.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent of GDP, the International Institute of Finance said in a note. "Public debt will rise from 69 per cent to 74 per cent. Still, Israel's strong external position, ample reserves, and moderate debt burden offer resilience," it added. Before the war with Iran, the International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook in April projected Israel's economy to grow 3.2 per cent this year. Rising compensation claims Israel's Tax Authority has been receiving thousands of compensation claims from affected people for damaged property and vehicles since the beginning of the war two weeks ago. As of Wednesday, it had received 41,651 claims, including 32,975 for structural damage, 4,119 for vehicle damage, and 4,456 for damage to contents and equipment. It is estimated that thousands of additional structures have been damaged, for which no claim has yet been submitted, according to the Israel Tax Authority website. Last week, Iran hit the Weizzman Institute, a major research institution in Israel, causing heavy damage to the building. It also hit the Bazan oil refinery complex in the port city of Haifa, damaging its infrastructure and shutting down its operations. The cost of property damages from the Iranian attacks is estimated to be around double the sum of claims stemming from the Hamas attack on October 7 and subsequent attacks in time since then, the head of the Tax Authority's compensation department told the Knesset finance committee on Monday. 'I believe that we'll reach 5 billion shekels ($1.47 billion) [in compensation],' Amir Dahan said at the time. 'These are amounts we have never seen in direct damage. The Weizmann Institute and Bazan are huge events. In total, we have 25 buildings for demolition; in comparison, from the start of the war until the round with Iran, there was one building for demolition."
Middle East Eye
an hour ago
- Middle East Eye
How supporters of 'Woman Life Freedom' in Iran rejected Israel's assault
The protests that followed the death in custody of Kurdish woman Mahsa Jina Amini in 2022 were arguably the most significant to rock Iran in decades. Tens of thousands took to the streets, enraged by the apparent killing of a woman arrested by morality police over how she wore her hijab, which exposed a range of other grievances that exploded into public view. The slogan "Woman Life Freedom", which has its roots in the pro-Kurdish groups associated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), was taken up as the mantra of the movement and quickly spread among reformists and opponents of the Islamic Republic. When Israeli and US attacks began raining down on Iran on 13 June, some critics of the ruling establishment, particularly westerners and Iranians in the diaspora, began talking up the assault as an opportunity for regime change. That rhetoric was echoed by Israeli officials and even Donald Trump. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters But despite their animosity towards the Islamic Republic, few activists and critics in Iran see a change of governance being born from Israel or the US, or would welcome such a process. The East Kurdistan Free Women's Society (KJAR) is one of the most prominent Iranian groups associated with the Woman Life Freedom movement. Letter from death row Politically followers of PKK co-founder Abdullah Ocalan, the group is no stranger to repression in Iran. One of their members, Verisheh Moradi, who fought against the Islamic State group in Syria, is facing a death sentence for "armed rebellion" over her support for the 2022 protests. Speaking to Middle East Eye, Deniz Derya - a member of the group's coordination council - said Moradi was currently suffering from serious health issues, including a "cervical disc rupture and spinal canal stenosis". She also highlighted the deteriorating conditions facing their comrade Zeynab Jalalian, who has endured "years of severe torture" since being first arrested in 2008. Pakhshan Azizi, another KJAR member, was also sentenced to death in July 2024 over her involvement in the Mahsa Amini protests. Despite the hardships faced their activists at the hand of the state, however, KJAR has refused to back calls for the US or Israel to overthrow the Islamic Republic by force. Derya said a project is underway by "global powers" to "reshape the region" through Israel. 'Both the Israeli and Iranian states are fully aware of the transformative power of women' - Deniz Derya, KJAR "Wars between nation states have brought nothing but massacres, displacement, poverty and exile to the Middle East and beyond, because such conflicts are driven by state interests, not the interests of the people," she said. In spite of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran commencing on Tuesday under US pressure, few believe the conflict between the two countries is over, even if it has died down for the moment. Last week, Moradi joined fellow prisoners Golrokh Ebrahimi Iraee, Sakineh Parvaneh and Reyhaneh Ansarinejad to issue a letter, published by the pro-Kurdish Firat News Agency, from the notorious Evin prison in Tehran. They accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and said its goal was to create a "weak and submissive" Middle East. Israel then bombed the prison. Derya said there was no real understanding of the implications or desires of the Woman Life Freedom movement by those still wedded to patriarchal ideologies. "Both the Israeli and Iranian states are fully aware of the transformative power of women. One seeks to co-opt it; the other, to crush it," she said. "However, the revolutionary uprising [of 2022] showed that, by relying on their own will, the people can bring about profound changes." Co-opt or crush The most prominent figure in the Iranian opposition to throw his weight behind the Israeli assault has been Reza Pahlavi, son of the former ruler of Iran whose ouster in 1979 led to the rise of the Islamic Republic. He expressed a desire to take power in Iran in the wake of the collapse of the current regime, and has praised Israeli and US strikes on the country. At a speech on Monday hours before the beginning of Trump's ceasefire announcement, Pahlavi gave a news conference in which he mentioned speaking to a woman whose brother was killed during the Woman Life Freedom protests in September 2022. Deniz Derya, member of the Coordination Council of the Free Women's Community of Eastern Kurdistan (supplied) "When security forces raided her home, she cried out: 'Oh God, where shall we go? Where shall we go to flee from your tyranny?'" he said. "One by one, her neighbours began to respond to her: 'We're not going anywhere! They, the regime, are the ones who've got to go!' These words echo in my heart - and should echo in every corridor of power around the world." Yet many in the opposition, particularly inside Iran, are less than thrilled by the prospect of a Pahlavi returning to power - not least the Kurdish groups who remember the repression meted out against them by his father. 'The regime cannot be done in from the sky. It must be on the ground' - member of Kurdish Iranian party They have balked at the use of the "Woman Life Freedom" slogan in social media by Pahlavi, or by his wife Yasmine, or by Benjamin Netanyahu. A member of a Kurdish independence party - who did not want to be identified - said that Iran's non-Persian population looked on Pahlavi being promoted by foreign media and politicians with dread. "The non-Persian nations are afraid that he will massacre and oppress them like their fathers and grandfathers," she said. She added that the dominance of the Persian majority in Iran meant there was little prospect of a popular uprising in the country any time soon and that an "external army" was needed to "liberate" Iranians of other backgrounds. "The regime cannot be done in from the sky. It must be on the ground," she said. 'Civil society of Iran' Some supporters of the Woman Life Freedom movement, however, have been somewhat more nuanced in their attitude to the most recent developments. While refusing to back the attacks on Iran, there are some Iranians who squarely lay the blame for the destruction on the Islamic Republic. Kawsar Fattahi, a senior member of the left-wing Komala party, said Iran had spent more than 40 years playing up the prospect of war with Israel and the current situation was the result. 'Stop seeing Israel and instead hear the voice of opposition groups' - Kawsar Fattahi, Komala "Despite widespread opposition from the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement, many hold the belief that this conflict might potentially undermine the government even further," she told MEE. "But the Iranian people should put an end to the regime." She said that Komala had no desire for outside forces to overthrow the Islamic Republic - just for the international community to stop "compromising" with it. Fattahi, who also previously fought the Islamic State group in Iraq as a Peshmerga commander, said the Iranian people began to shatter the Islamic Republic's "gender apartheid" in 2022 with the Mahsa Amini protests The Israeli co-opting of the "Woman Life Freedom" slogan, she added, was irrelevant in this context. "Stop seeing them and instead hear the voice of opposition groups," she said. "Woman Life Freedom is the soul of the civil society of Iran. The movement that can lead Iran to democracy and peace." What now? Both Israel and Iran launched missiles on Tuesday after the supposed beginning of Trump's ceasefire. However, the US president has responded forcefully to Israel, warning Netanyahu against further attacks. The assault seems to have hardened some views towards outside intervention. Violins over violence: Tehran's musicians fought fear with music Read More » Narges Mohammedi, a Nobel Prize-winning women's rights campaigner and former political prisoner, who was under house arrest, advocated an end to Iran's nuclear ambitions and the "resignation of the current leaders" of the country during the strikes. In the wake of the attacks on Tehran, which forced her to flee the capital, she became much more forcefully critical of the strikes, warning like many others that "democracy cannot come through war". While few believe this marks the end of conflict between Iran and Israel, the pause is likely to lead to recriminations domestically in both countries. Iranian authorities are already thought to have arrested scores of alleged Israeli spies since Israel launched its attacks on 13 June. Fattahi said that she was concerned that in the coming days - assuming no more Israeli or US strikes were forthcoming - the Iranian state would come down on suspected collaboraters and opposition groups like a tonne of bricks. "For the time being, it is unclear what the outcome of this conflict will be, but if it does not destabilise the Iranian government completely, it will lead to even more repression of its own people, particularly Kurdish groups," she said. "For the simple reason that they are so terrified of a popular rebellion that they are willing to resort to extreme measures like mass imprisonment and executions of inmates to prove that they are still in control."
