JPM's Berro Sees Yields as ‘Range-Bound Around Here'
Kelsey Berro, fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, offers her outlook for yields as she weighs the market shock of the Israel-Iran attacks and her expectation for the Federal Reserve to 'keep everything the same' at this week's meeting. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Fast Company
19 minutes ago
- Fast Company
Pentagon Pizza Index: The theory that surging pizza orders signal global crises
A different kind of pie chart is being used to predict global crises. A surge in takeout deliveries to the Pentagon has become a surprisingly accurate predictor of major geopolitical events, dubbed the 'Pentagon Pizza Index.' Tracking activity at local pizza joints in Arlington County, the X account Pentagon Pizza Report noted an uptick in Google Maps activity from four pizza places near the Pentagon on June 12. We, The Pizza, District Pizza Palace, Domino's, and Extreme Pizza all reportedly saw higher-than-usual order volumes around 7 p.m. ET. 'As of 6:59 p.m. ET nearly all pizza establishments nearby the Pentagon have experienced a HUGE surge in activity,' the X account posted. The timing? Just hours before news broke of Israel's major attack on Iran. The U.S. announced it was not involved in the attacks. 'We are not involved in strikes against Iran, and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region,' Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement released by the White House on June 12. However, as the theory goes, the surge in traffic at local pizza joints close to government buildings may have signaled hungry military leadership hunkering down to monitor unfolding events. 'The kind of analytics we love,' read one comment on X. 'Google Maps research beats some spy agencies around the world,' another user reacted. The predictive power of pizza isn't a new theory. As Alex Selby-Boothroyd, The Economist 's head of data journalism, wrote on LinkedIn: 'The Pentagon Pizza Index has been a surprisingly reliable predictor of seismic global events—from coups to wars—since the 1980s.' During the Cold War, Soviet operatives reportedly monitored pizza delivery activity in Washington, believing a sudden uptick in late-night orders signaled military personnel working overtime. They even gave it a code name: 'Pizzint,' short for pizza intelligence. In January 1991, Frank Meeks, who then owned 43 Domino's outlets in the Washington area, told the Los Angeles Times: 'The news media doesn't always know when something big is going to happen because they're in bed, but [pizza] deliverers are out there at 2 in the morning.' He added that on the night of August 1, 1990, the CIA ordered a record number of pizzas in a single night—21 pies. A few hours later, Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait, marking the beginning of the Gulf War. As CNN's then-Pentagon correspondent Wolf Blitzer reportedly said in 1990: 'Bottom line for journalists: Always monitor the pizzas.' Of course, a correlation between pizza delivery and global crises is not a verified method of tracking world events. In a statement to Newsweek, the Pentagon dismissed the theory, noting they have plenty of pizza options inside the building, along with sushi, sandwiches, and donuts. They also disputed the timeline suggested by the Pentagon Pizza Report, saying it did 'not align with the events.'
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Rystad: Oil Prices To Remain Below $80 Despite Escalating Middle East Tensions
Oil prices are likely to remain capped below $80 per barrel despite the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, research firm Rystad Energy said on Monday, as Iran and Israel continue to trade strikes with the escalation now in its fourth day. 'Based on our earlier disruption simulations, we see oil prices capped below $80 per barrel,' Mukesh Sahdev, Rystad Energy's Global Head of Commodities Markets – Oil, said in a market update, carried by Africa Oil+Gas Report. The conflict appears likely to be contained and the United States could potentially play a central role, according to Sahdev. The worst fear in the market is a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical crude flow lane where more than 20 million barrels of crude pass every day—equal to a fifth of global daily oil consumption. While disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows could be devastating and would send oil prices spiking and add further tensions, it is an unlikely scenario for many observers and analysts, including those at Rystad Energy. 'A blockade remains the key risk that could push markets into uncharted territory,' Janiv Shah, Rystad Energy's Vice President, Commodities Markets – Oil, said. However, 'Given its interest in keeping prices closer to $50, the US could play a stabilizing role,' Shah added. 'We maintain our view that this is likely to remain a short-lived conflict, as further escalation risks spiraling beyond the control of key stakeholders,' Shan said. Despite Israel and Iran hitting each other's energy sites over the weekend, the targets are not material to global oil production or crude flows. Following the oil price jump on Friday after the start of the Israeli strikes on Iran, oil was muted in early trading on Monday, with both benchmarks falling by around 1% and trading in the low $70s per barrel as key oil flows from the Middle East remain unaffected. By Charles Kennedy for More Top Reads From this article on
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Oil prices fall and stocks rise, despite ongoing Israel-Iran conflict
Oil prices fell and stocks climbed on Monday, indicating optimism among investors about the limits of economic fallout from the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 361 points, or 0.8%, by midday erasing much of the losses suffered on Friday as back-and-forth strikes broke out between the two countries. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% on Monday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq increased 1.4% by midday. In each case, the gains erased nearly all of the losses suffered as the conflict began days earlier. MORE: Israel-Iran live updates: Israel claims 'full' aerial control over Tehran Oil prices, meanwhile, ticked slightly lower on Monday, easing a surge in prices set off late last week as investors feared a wider regional war in the oil-rich Middle East. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures price -- a key measure of U.S. oil prices -- dropped 1.8% on Monday. Brent crude future prices, another top measure of oil prices, also fell about 1.9%. Each index had climbed as much as 10% in the immediate aftermath of the conflict. Aerial attacks between Israel and Iran continued overnight into Monday, marking a fourth day of strikes following Israel's Friday attack. That surprise operation hit at the heart of Iran's nuclear program, striking key facilities and killing several nuclear scientists as well as high-ranking military leaders, according to Israeli officials. The U.S. did not provide any military assistance or have any involvement in Israel's Friday strikes, a U.S. official told ABC News. President Donald Trump told ABC News on Sunday, "It's possible we could get involved." The U.S. did provide assistance in shooting down incoming missile and drone attacks from Iran in response to Israel's initial barrage, officials said. The drop in oil prices may ease a potential uptick in the price of gasoline for U.S. drivers. Since crude oil makes up the top ingredient in car fuel, the Israel-Iran conflict threatened to modestly increase prices over the coming days and significantly hike them in the event of a wider war, experts previously told ABC News. MORE: Trump says 'it's possible' US gets involved in Israel-Iran conflict 'By later this week, we'll likely see nearly all states with price increases as retail gas prices rise following Iran/Israel attacks,' Patrick de Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said on Monday in a post on X. The move higher for U.S. stocks mirrored gains in markets across Asia and Europe. The STOXX Europe 600 index ticked up 0.3% by mid-afternoon local time. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo climbed 1.2% on Monday. ABC News' David Brennan contributed to this report.. Oil prices fall and stocks rise, despite ongoing Israel-Iran conflict originally appeared on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
