Global Islamic politics expert says Israel's claims about Iranian nuclear weapon 'at odds' with intelligence reports as Netanyahu 'desperate' to involve Trump in war
An Australian global Islamic politics expert has urged the world to be "sceptical" of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims after numerous intelligence reports concluded that Iran is not "close at all" to building a nuclear weapon.
Professor Greg Barton from Deakin University told Sky News Netanyahu's strategy to close down Iran's nuclear program may not be as "clear cut and simple", as he would present it to be to President Donald Trump, in an attempt to persuade the US to join the Israeli assault.
"I think that the way that Benjamin Netanyahu will sell it to Trump is that you just send in a couple of B2s over Fordow and it's done," Mr Barton told Sky News host Steve Price.
"You've closed down the nuclear program and we're good.
"But of course, it is not likely to be so clear cut and so simple."
According to Axios, President Trump believes the US has leverage over Iran due to its bunker buster munitions – which Israel does not have – that are capable of destroying the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility that sits deep under a mountain.
Mr Barton added the bunker buster bombs are unlikely to demolish Iran's nuclear program and could instead result in dangerous escalation of war in the Middle East.
'First of all, those B2 strikes with massive ordnance, penetrator bombs over Fordow, 90 metres underground, that likely wouldn't finish Iran's nuclear program,' he said.
'They'd probably scramble to take what they have left and actually move towards nuclear weapons.
'In the meantime, they're likely to strike out against US targets all around the Middle East and use their proxies to do so.
'So a very dangerous risk of escalation and a prolonged conflict.'
When questioned about the validity of Netanyahu's claims about Iran's existential threat to Israel, Mr Barton said they were 'at odds' with other publicly available intelligence reports have said, including what Trump was briefed on by his own security adviser.
Mr Barton highlighted Israel's remarkable capabilities at penetrating Iranian society and its defence apparatus, but noted other intelligence reports suggest 'Iran is some way off, it's not close at all' to building a nuclear weapon.
'It is possible they know something that no one else knows, but what all the other intelligence reports are saying is that Iran is some way off, it's not close at all,' he said.
'We can't know, we're sort of making a claim from Netanyahu who is desperate to involve Trump and America in this programme, and on balance you sort of want to be a bit sceptical about what he's saying for that reason.'
Israel has been trading missiles with Iran since last Friday in an attempt to shut down any efforts of Tehran building an atomic weapon to wipe out the existence of the Jewish state.
Netanyahu said the operations were to "strike the head of Iran's nuclear weaponisation program".
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told a media briefing on Thursday, local time, she had been asked to pass on a 'direct quote' from President Trump on the possibility of US intervention in the Israel-Iran war.
'Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,' she said, quoting the President.
Ms Leavitt also urged sceptics of US involvement to 'trust' in President Trump's judgement, before emphasising his 'top priority' was to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.
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While diplomats did not expect a breakthrough in Geneva, they said it was vital to engage with Iran because once the war stopped the nuclear issue would remain unresolved given that Tehran would still retain the scientific know-how. Trump has said he will decide within two weeks whether to join Israeli strikes. "A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said. European foreign ministers will tell their Iranian counterpart that the US is open to direct talks even as it considers joining Israeli strikes intended to smash Tehran's nuclear capacity, diplomats say before a meeting in Geneva. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi would be told that Iran must send a "clear signal", two diplomats told Reuters, with pressure mounting on Tehran to agree tough curbs on its nuclear program to prevent the potential development of an atomic weapon. 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The main message Europeans will pass to Araqchi is that the US has signalled readiness for direct talks, but that Iran must give a serious signal, the two European diplomats said, without defining what the signal should be. Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has spoken to Araqchi several times since last week, sources say. While diplomats did not expect a breakthrough in Geneva, they said it was vital to engage with Iran because once the war stopped the nuclear issue would remain unresolved given that Tehran would still retain the scientific know-how. Trump has said he will decide within two weeks whether to join Israeli strikes. "A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said.
